2026 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet, Depth Charts, and Projections
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The difference between the seventh- and twelfth-ranked quarterbacks is about 20.00 fantasy points, which puts most options in a coin-toss situation in drafts.
Quarterbacks
Floor of 39 combined touchdowns over the past six seasons (45, 42, 42, 44, 40, and 39).His passing yards have declined in back-to-back years (4,306, 3,731, and 3,668) while coming off a career-low 460 passing attempts.Despite his sliding passing opportunity, Allen comes off a career-best 8.0 yards per pass attempt, along with becoming a rushing scoring beast over the past three years (15, 12, and 14 TDs).WR DJ Moore gives the Bills a true go-to volume wideout who should be an excellent fit for Buffalo’s offense.The Bills want to run the ball (52.5% in 2025 and 48.6% in 2024) and control the clock.Question Marks:
Can TE Dalton Kincaid stay healthy?Will Skyler Bell or Keon Coleman develop into a trusted WR3 option?Did Buffalo’s offensive line add enough to offset the loss of G David Edwards (signed with the Saints for $61 million for four years)?Conclusion: Foundation stud who projects as a value in the National Fantasy Football Championship.
Maye finished 7.40 fantasy points behind Josh Allen in four-point passing touchdown formats in 2025, and his ADP is much more favorable than Allen’s this year (over two rounds of value). In the NFFC (six-point passing TDs), Maye outscored Allen by 6.60 fantasy points.The Patriots added WR A.J. Brown, giving New England a proven WR1, who at the very least will draw plenty of attention from defenses.Maye led the NFL in completion rate (72.0%) and QB rating (113.5), which is even more exciting when adding that he gained a league-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt. New England only had two receivers catch over 50 passes in 2026 (Stefon Diggs – 85/1,013/4 and Hunter Henry – 60/768/7).Romeo Doubs also improves the Patriots’ wide receiver depth.Question Marks:
Maye was sacked 47 times last year. Their offensive line should be better this year (T Caleb Lomu was drafted in the first round, and New England signed G Alijah Vera-Tucker to a three-year deal for $42 million).T Will Campbell must play better in his sophomore campaign (fourth overall pick in 2025).The Patriots only threw the ball 50.4% of the time last year. They have two talent running backs, with talent on their defense.Conclusion: Maye makes the players around him better, similar to what Tom Brady did early in his career. His ability to run helps his fantasy floor and consistently factor. A breakout season is sometimes followed by a regression year, but the Patriots’ offensive puzzle pieces look deep with a higher ceiling. Maye is a great value quarterback in the NFFC.
When on the field for 16 games or more over the past five years, Burrow delivered 36, 40, and 45 combined touchdowns.Ja’Marr Chase is one of the best wide receivers in the game.The Bengals led the NFL in completions (460) and pass attempts (652) in 2024, but Burrow missed nine games last season.Cincinnati’s running backs (87/533/4 on 111 targets) and tight ends (98/876/7 on 129 targets) are active in their passing game.Fantasy overall and league championships were won with Bengals’ offensive players in 2024.Question Marks:
Burrow has been a fantasy bust twice over the past three seasons due to missing 16 games between 2023 and 2025.Can Tee Higgins stay on the field for 17 games? He’s missed 12 contests over the past three years. On the positive side, Higgins scored 21 times in 2024 and 2025.Cincinnati had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last year, which is a win for Burrow’s passing opportunity if repeated. The Bengals address their defense via the draft and free agency in the offseason.Conclusion: I’ve been a fantasy fan of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, but have yet to get paid with a great season from both of them on one of my fantasy teams. Home run-type swing, and his price point makes him relatively easy to pair with Ja’Marr Chase. I have to have one of these combos again this year. A double stack with Tee Higgins is also viable.
Nix ranked 8th in 2024 (412.95) and 2025 (396.15) in quarterback scoring in the NFFC despite the latter feeling much less impactful.He had a floor rating (20.00 fantasy points or more) in 58.8% of his 17 starts in four-point passing touchdown formats, highlighted by three impact days (32.10, 42.75, and 30.00).Denver threw the ball 57.3% of the time, compared to 55.3% in 2024.The Broncos’ running backs remain active in the passing game over the past two seasons (96/528/4 on 119 targets and 87/616/5 on 118 targets) while gaining only 5.5 and 7.1 yards per catch.Hidden in Nix’s 2025 stats was a league-high 612 pass attempts (tied for third in completions – 388). He was sacked only 22 times (3.5% of the time).WR Jayden Waddle improves the Broncos’ receiving depth and their ability to make big plays.Question Marks:
Nix had right ankle surgery in late January, followed by a clean-up procedure in the back end of April. The Broncos expect him to be a full go in training camp.Over his final eight games in 2025, Nix averaged 263 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions, which was well below his exciting finish in 2024 (270 combined yards with 21 passing touchdowns and six interceptions).Over his first two seasons, he gained short yards per pass attempt (6.7 and 6.4), with 33 and 30 touchdowns.Conclusion: The Broncos’ offense lacked luster last season. They have depth and talent at wide receiver in 2026, and Sean Payton wants to throw the ball. Nix projects as a targeted cheat QB1 or an excellent backup quarterback in the fantasy market. On the downside, Denver has a top-tier defense, which could lead to more fourth-quarter runs when playing from a big lead. I expect Nix to have a progress year in 2026.
The Vikings want to air the ball out, and they revived Sam Darnold’s career in 2024 (59.7% completion rate, 63 touchdowns, 56 interceptions, and 6.7 yards per pass attempt over his first 66 games in the NFL).Justin Jefferson (WR5) remains a first-round fantasy stud in drafts.Jordan Addison brings big-play ability (13.7 yards per catch) with 24 touchdowns across his first 45 career games.Minnesota improved their wide receiver depth by signing Jauan Jennings (132/1,618/15 over his last 30 games).Murray’s ability to run (532/3,193/32 over 87 games – 6.0 yards per carry) will turn many negative plays into first downs on the ground.He was the 10th-best quarterback in 2024 in NFFC scoring (381.75), and Murray didn’t play well.Question Marks:
Murray hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since 2021 (4,210 combined yards with 29 touchdowns), coming after an impact sophomore campaign (4,790 combined yards and 37 touchdowns).He had been a dink-and-dunk quarterback over his seven seasons in Arizona (7.1 yards per pass attempt or fewer in six different years).Murray missed a combined 27 games in 2022, 2023, and 2025.The Vikings’ offensive line gave up 60 sacks last year, compared to 49 in 2024.Conclusion: With a healthy 17 games of starts, Murray should set a new high in pass attempts while offering a solid floor in the run game. My high ranking of the Vikings’ new quarterback is placing faith in Minnesota’s receiving core while reflecting on previous seasons when Kevin O’Connell threw the ball early and often (2021 – 604, 2022 – 672, and 2023 – 631). Murray falls into the quarterback deep sleeper category, with plenty of wiggle room based on his free ADP.
Only five quarterbacks outscored Daniels in his rookie season in NFFC scoring (441.50), highlighted by an elite completion rate (69.0%).Despite his rushing stats (206/1,169/8 – 5.7 yards per carry) over his first 24 games, Daniels runs with his eyes up to beat defenses with his arm rather than his legs. He makes first downs in the run game, with a plan to take what a defense gives him.The Commanders improved their pass-catching out of the backfield with the addition of Rachaad White.Rookie wideout Antonio Williams will be the key player for Daniels to reach a higher ceiling via the ball.Signed LT Laremy Tunsil for two years for $60.2 million.Question Marks:
Washington brought in an unproven offensive coordinator (David Blough), but he came from a high-scoring system (Detroit).The Commanders lack prove wide receiver depth behind Terry McLaurin.Washington ran the ball 50.0% of the time in 2024 and 49.5% in 2025, which lowers the ceiling of passing attempts for Daniels.Conclusion: For Daniels to pay off in 2026, he must continue to offer an edge in the run game. His price point this year is based on his rookie success, not his receiving corps. He brings the “it factor” to Washington’s quarterback position, which should translate into wins in tight contests in the fourth quarter. I’m putting Daniels in the neutral category this draft season, meaning I won’t fight for him while keeping an eye on him in case he slides a round or two.
After a beast season (5,087 combined yards with 45 touchdowns), Jackson was a shell of himself in 2025 due to hamstring, ankle, and back issues.Baltimore should remain a run-first team (53.7% in 2024 and 54.3% in 2025).Zay Flowers (86/1,273/6 on 118 targets) comes off a career season, and he should assume the volume pass-catching role again this year.Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarrett improve the Ravens’ wide receiver depth.Question Marks:
The Ravens moved on from John Harbaugh in the offseason. He was replaced by Jesse Minter, who brings a defensive profile. In 2023, Minter won a college National Championship under Jim Harbaugh and followed him to the Chargers over the past two seasons. He held a defensive coordinator position over the past three seasons.Does Mark Andrews have a bounce-back year in him? If not, Baltimore’s tight end receiving depth is much weaker.From Week 10 to Week 16, across seven games, Jackson lost his magic behind center (177 yards per game, 57.2% completion rate, four touchdowns, and five interceptions).Baltimore lost starting C Tyler Linderbaum to the Raiders (three years for $81 million).Jackson has never attempted more than 475 passes in a season.Conclusion: Jackson has been a better passer over the past three seasons based on his completion rate (66.1%) and yards per pass attempt (8.4), but his fantasy floor is driven by his ability to run. He ranked fourth in quarterback scoring in 2023 and first in 2024. Unfortunately, I don’t see enough passing TD’s to fight for him in drafts this year, and three injuries last year may be a hint of more days off in 2026.
Lawrence comes off his best fantasy season (4,366 combined yards with 38 touchdowns) despite continued weakness in his completion rate (60.9%).He was active scoring in the run game (82/359/9).After a slow start over 10 games (238 combined yards per game with 16 touchdowns), Lawrence played at a much higher level across his final eight starts (2,272 combined yards with 25 touchdowns).Jakobi Meyers (39/442/3 on 58 targets) and Parker Washington (37/624/4 on 57 targets) carried the load down the receiving stretch.A healthy season from Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter gives the Jaguars explosive wide receiver depth.Question Marks:
Jacksonville is in transition at the running back position.The Jaguars had low receiving production from their backs in 2025 (56/425 on 78 targets), but they finished second to the 49ers in touchdowns (8).Their offensive line allowed 41 sacks (32 in 2024).Conclusion: I have Lawrence ranked with his price point in the NFFC. He has excellent wide receiver options, scores on the ground, and his tight end should help move the chains. I like the direction of Jacksonville’s team and their coaching staff, making their quarterback a developing fantasy piece to the puzzle.
The Cowboys have two receivers that rank in the top 10 (CeeDee Lamb – WR6 and George Pickens – WR10).Dallas finished third in pass attempts in 2024 (637) and 2025 (624), creating 398 and 419 completions.Prescott has been at his best in touchdowns in odd seasons over the past seven years (2019 – 33, 2021 – 38, 2023 – 38, and 2025 – 32). He missed 25 combined games in 2020, 2022, and 2024.The Cowboys led the NFL in passing yards (4,735) last year, compared to third in 2023 (4,660).The tight end position has been active for the Cowboys over the past two seasons (2024 – 95/823/1 on 136 targets and 2025 – 105/822/9 on 138 targets).Their offensive line gave up 31 sacks last year.Dallas led the NFL in offensive plays (1,090) and yards (6,871) in 2025.Question Marks:
The Cowboys focused on improving their defense in free agency and the draft in the offseason. They did add an offensive lineman in the fourth round (T Drew Shelton).Dallas ranked last in running back receiving yards (308) and yards per catch (5.1) last year.Conclusion: Prescott offers minimal value in the run game, but he should rank highly in pass stats across the board. His failure rate has been 50% over the past six years due to injuries. Solid value at quarterback (ranked fifth in fantasy points – 421.30 in 2025) while tending to be a better player at home in his career.
Over the previous three seasons, Goff ranked 7th (2023 – 398.85), 5th (2024 – 444.75), and 6th (2025 – 415.70) in NFFC quarterback fantasy points.The Lions have four elite pass-catching options when healthy – Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta.WR Isaac TeSlaa adds scoring value to the passing game.Their offensive line allowed 39 sacks last season (33 in 2024).Goff hasn’t missed a start over the past four years.He has over 30 touchdowns in three consecutive years (32, 37, and 34). Goff also has a history of being more of an edge at home.Detroit added two potential upgrades to their offensive line (T Blake Miller – 17th pick in the first round) and C Cade Mays (25 million for three years).Question Marks:
Detroit brought in another offensive coordinator (Drew Petzing) over the winter.If Jahmyr Gibbs has an injury, there will be a severe drop-off in talent at running back.Conclusion: Goff has the healthy card over Dak Prescott and better receiving weapons, but the Lions can finish drives with rushing touchdowns in close games. Based on his recent fantasy results, Goff remains an overlooked quarterback asset. Think steady with value backed in his ADP.
Hurts comes off a career high in passing touchdowns (25), but lost momentum as a ball carrier (105/421), especially scoring touchdowns (8 – 10, 13, 15, and 14 over his previous four years).Was his decline on the ground tied to a gimmicky offensive coordinator who scripted in close plays for Dallas Goedert (11 receiving touchdowns – career high by six scores?New offensive coordinator Sean Mannion comes from Green Bay. He leaned on Josh Jacobs over the past two seasons, which should be a hint of a rebound season for Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ run game.Mannion also likes to throw the ball downfield.Philadelphia upped their tight end depth by drafting Eli Stowers in the second round.Question Marks:
Can DeVonta Smith make a push to a top-12 wide receiver after the Eagles moved on from AJ Brown?How quickly can Makai Lemon catch up to NFL speed at Philadelphia’s WR2 position?Is the combination of Dontayvion Wicks, Hollywood Brown, and Elijah Moore worthy of commanding significant targets?Conclusion: Over the past three seasons, Hurts ranked third (446.40), ninth (385.15), and ninth (385.30) in NFFC fantasy points while missing three games over this span. The problem with the Eagles’ starting quarterback is that he wants to protect the ball by running when a play breaks down, which shuts down the chance at a big passing completion. Ultimately, a drafter has to believe in his receiving corps to fight for him in fantasy leagues. His resume supports a bounce-back year, highlighted by more scoring and rushing chances.
Williams ranked seventh in NFFC quarterback scoring (412.60) last year despite the Bears ranking 31st in the NFL on completion rate (58.2%).He finished 2025 with seven consecutive games with two passing touchdowns.His completion rate was 54.6% across his final 11 matchups.The Bears have three developing young receiving options – Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland.Williams helps his floor in the run game (77/388/3).Chicago took two shots at improving their center position (Logan Jones – second round of the 2026 NFL Draft and traded for Garrett Bradbury).Loveland looks poised to be a difference-maker.Question Marks:
Is Romo Odunze past his foot issues?Luther Burden looks the part of an upside talent, but is he ready to handle a heavy workload?The Bears’ offensive line allowed 24 sacks last year (third lowest in the league), which was a significant improvement from 2024 (68 most in the NFL). Is their pass protection repeatable?Conclusion: The direction of the Bears’ offense is intriguing, but Williams must locate the ball better in the passing game. His pedigree suggests more growth, but there are signs of regression if his receiving corps doesn’t develop as expected.
Bad finish to 2025 over his final eight games (218 combined yards per game with only nine touchdowns and five interceptions).The Chargers’ offensive line allowed 60 sacks last year, highlighted by disaster blocking in five matchups (6, 6, 8, 6, and 8 sacks).Herbert was at his best from Week 6 to Week 9, leading to three combined touchdowns in each matchup.He passed for 300 yards or more in four matchups (only once after Week 7).Over 30 games in 2023 and 2024, Herbert only threw 10 interceptions, but that number spiked to 13 across starts last year.His rushing attempts have been at career-high levels over the past two seasons (69/306/2 and 83/498/2) with Jim Harbaugh as the Chargers’ head coach.Los Angeles had pass-catching talent at running back, wide receiver, and tight end.In the offseason, the Chargers tried their best to improve this offensive line via the draft – C Jake Slaughter (2nd round), T Travis Blake (fourth round), plus C Logan Taylor and G Alex Harkey in the sixth round.They also signed C Tyler Biadasz ($30 million for three years), G Cole Strange ($13 million for two years), and T Trey Pipkins ($10 million for two years).Question Marks:
The Chargers’ offense ranked 13th in quarterback fantasy points (395.95) in the NFFC (six-point passing TDs) and in four-point passing touchdown formats (357.95).Does Los Angeles become a more run-favoring offense in 2026? Similar to 2024 (28th in pass attempts – 510).Herbert played through wrist and finger injuries on his non-throwing hand in December.Conclusion: Herbert has the personal and talent to be a much more valuable fantasy quarterback. He’s lost his early career luster in the deep passing game (25 completions of 40 yards or more in his first two years in the NFL – only 26 across his next 63 starts).
He checks the favorable box in completion rate (66.5% in his career) with some help in the run game. Herbert was a stud in 2021 (5,316 combined yards with 41 touchdowns), but he hasn’t thrown over 4,000 yards in three seasons (five missed games). His passing touchdown output came in at 25, 20, 23, and 26 over the past four years. A player to fight for if you believe in him, and his NFFC quarterback ranking suggests he has plenty of draft friends in 2026.
A turf toe injury cost Purdy eight games last season.Over his 11 starts (including the postseason), he averaged 23.24 fantasy points per game in four-point passing touchdown formats, which would have delivered top-5 quarterback status if repeated for 17 starts.Purdy has been more active as a runner over his last 24 starts (99/470/8).He was a beast from Week 15 to Week 17 last year, leading the 976 combined yards with 13 touchdowns. Over this span, he gained 9.2 yards per pass attempt and 5.5 yards per rush.Over his last 24 games, Purdy averaged 30.8 passes per game, which ranks below the league average.The 49ers have talented receivers at RB, WR, and TE.Question Marks:
San Francisco’s offense is built on older players, which could derail Purdy quickly if Christian McCaffrey went down with an injury or his two other receiving options (Mike Evans and George Kittle) don’t play at a high level.The 49ers have multiple wide receivers and tight ends listed with injury tags in mid-August.Conclusion: The outlook for Purdy in 2026 looks explosive, making him appear to be a value, cheat QB1. The 49ers have the tools to throw the ball a lot more, which in turn would give their star quarterback another level of hidden potential. On the downside, any injury to one of his top receivers will lower his ceiling, and George Kittle is coming off a significant injury.
Potential quarterback beast in the run game, especially at the goal line (86/487/9 over 14 games in his rookie season).A healthy Malik Nabers gives Dart a higher ceiling in passing touchdowns and passing yards.He scored over 20.00 fantasy points (four-point passing touchdowns) in 10 of his 12 full games (Week 13 – 12.95 and Week – 1.35), leading to him having a hidden fantasy value (26.24 FPPG when at his best).[He scored over 20.00 fantasy points (four-point passing touchdowns) in 10 of his 12 full games (Week 13 – 12.95 and Week – 1.35)]The Giants system should align with Baltimore’s over the past few seasons with Jon Harbaugh as their head coach, suggesting a better passing version of Lamar Jackson.New York upgraded their tight end position by signing Isaiah Likely, and Malachi Fields could be a scoring advantage at the goal line.Question Marks:
Can Dart learn to avoid bad hits that invite concussions and other injuries?Will the Giants run a balanced offense? New York threw the ball 526 times last year, compared to 423 by the Ravens last season.Conclusion: The structure of the Giants’ offense lines up well for expected fantasy points for their starting quarterback. He falls into a breakout quarterback category while bringing along some injury risk. Last year, New York’s quarterbacks ranked seventh in fantasy points (384.75) in four-point passing touchdown formats. In the end, the passing part of his equation and health will determine his ceiling.[New York’s quarterbacks ranked seventh in fantasy points (384.75) in four-point passing touchdown formats]
Stafford comes off his best season at age 37 (4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns), ranking him in the NFFC in quarterback scoring (495.45), plus first in weekly impact value (52.9%).[NFFC in quarterback scoring (495.45)]His floor and growth were tied to a great season by Puka Nacua (129/1,820/11) and the development of his tight ends (103/1,128/17 on 150 targets).[development of his tight ends (103/1,128/17 on 150 targets)]He was on the field for 1,332 of 1,350 of the Rams’ snaps (98.7%).His chemistry with Davante Adams should be better this year, even with him entering 2026 at age 33.The Rams led the NFL in touchdowns (63) and points scored (518) last year.Question Marks:
Repeating an elite season in fantasy football is always a challenge.Stafford offers no value in the run game (one yard on 39 carries).His fantasy value would plummet severely if Puka Nacua had an injury, and Los Angeles has to pay him before the regular season starts.Stafford came into August last summer with a back issue (aggravated disc), which could resurface at any time in 2026.Conclusion: The Rams’ team looks great on paper, setting up a deep playoff run this year. Unfortunately, this fantasy football game we play is loaded with sacks to player expectations. A fantasy game manager only has to look back at last season – Lamar Jackson was a beast in 2024, but injuries led to 19th other QBs outscoring him last year. The same could be said for Baker Mayfield. Stafford is an easy fade for me at a top-12 quarterback selection.
Before his ACL injury last year, Mahomes was averaging 23.47 fantasy points per game in four-point passing touchdown format, even with Xavier Worthy, in essence, out for three games and not looking healthy all year due to his Week 1 shoulder injury.Rashee Rice was suspended for the first six games.Mahomes comes off a career-high in rushing yards (422) and rushing touchdowns (5).Kansas City scored 37 touchdowns, ranking 21st with four other teams, in 2025.The Chiefs and Mahomes have the best success winning games (96 wins) in the NFL over the past eight seasons.Question Marks:
How much mobility will Mahomes lose after having knee surgery in 2025? Will it hurt his fantasy value?Can Kansas City squeeze one more success out of Travis Kelce?Is Xavier Worthy going to develop into a fantasy asset, along with a winning piece to the Chiefs’ passing game?Will Kenneth Walker thrive in the run game? More rushing scores or overall touchdowns?Conclusion: Mahomes did more with less last year, and he makes the players around him better. His ability to win tight games in the fourth quarter is a special trait, reserved for the greats in the NFL. The Chiefs appear to have a much better offensive structure in 2026 with the addition of Walker, and if their top two wideout play up to their potential. As a QB2, Mahomes is the right kind of swing for a fantasy team, while also having a sleeper price tag.
The Buccaneers’ offense clicked in 2024, leading to Mayfield gaining 4,878 combined yards with 44 touchdowns, highlighted by him gaining 7.9 yards per pass attempt.Last year, he battled knee, biceps, and left shoulder injuries while having a much shorter passing window (6.7 yards per pass attempt).Despite his grinder season, Mayfield finished 12th in fantasy points (321.85) in four-point passing touchdown formats.He had a floor of 20.00 fantasy points in 10 of his 17 starts, with no impact games.Mike Evans missed nine games and saw his streak with over 1,000 receiving yards end at 11 years.Chris Godwin came into the season coming off a significant leg and ankle injury, leading to him only seeing the field for nine starts. He failed to regain his previous form.Tampa played without their rookie standout running back (Bucky Irving) for seven contests. He never ran the ball well all year, which was partly due to the Bucs having three significant injuries on their offensive line.Question Marks:
Is Mayfield capable of delivering over 30 touchdowns again? His previous high, other than 2024, was 29 combined TDs.Does Emeka Egbuka develop into a more complete wide receiver this year? Tampa is expected to pump up his volume in short catches.Is the remaining corps of wideout capable of driving this passing game to an elite level again?Conclusion: Mayfield did enough last year to beat his current ADP in the NFFC and my early projections. He was beat up pretty badly late in 2025, but his gamer mentality kept him on the field for 17 games for the third consecutive season. The Bucs have receiving talent, and they play NO, @ATL, and RAMs from Week 15 to Week 17.
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Running Backs
365 and 366 touches over the past two seasons, with rising value in catches (79) and receiving yards (820).Robinson should have another gear in scoring (2024 – 15 TDs and 2025 – 11 TDs), but he needs better quarterback play.18 of his plays gained 20 yards or more last year, with six reaching the 40-yard mark.3.7 yards after contact and 10.9 yards per catch in 2025.Tua Tagovailoa helped produce a top-five running back outcome over the past three seasons.Robinson was on the field for 79.2% of the Falcons’ plays last year, and he hasn’t missed a game in three seasons.Question Marks:
Change in coaching staff.Coin flip on who starts at quarterback, with both options needing to prove their worth by finishing drives with passing touchdowns in the red zone.Conclusion: Robinson was a difference-maker last season from Week 15 to Week 17 (30.50, 29.80, and 39.90 PPR fantasy points). He’s scored 20.0 or more fantasy points in 19 of his last 29 starts. His edge over Jahmyr Gibbs comes in the passing game, but Detroit has a much better offense. Atlanta plays @WAS, TB, and NO from Week 15 to Week 17 in 2026 compared to @MIN, NYG, and @CHI for the Lions. Both players project to have elite seasons this year, but this game called fantasy football is never that easy.
McCaffrey was the top-scoring fantasy player in 2025, edging out Josh Allen (416.60 to 414.30).The 49ers gave their top back 403 touches last year, leading to his first season with over 300 rushing attempts (311) and his third with over 100 catches (102).His yards per catch (9.1) continues to be an edge. McCaffrey has never gained under 8.0 yards per catch for a season in his career.Ten of his plays gained 20 yards or more (2.5%).The 49ers played eight regular-season games with Brock Purdy.McCaffrey was the top-scoring running back in 2018 (388.0), 2019 (469.20), and 2023 (393.30).He had a floor of 15.00 PPR fantasy points in 15 of his 17 matchups, with 12 resulting in more than 20.00 fantasy points (70.6% impact ratio).Question Marks:
McCaffrey has underachieved fantasy expectations three times over the past seven years due to missing 36 games between 2020, 2021, and 2024.He gained only 3.9 yards per rush last season, with one play gaining 40 yards or more.The 49ers didn’t make any significant changes to their offensive line in the offseason.Running backs coming off high-volume seasons tend to fail.Conclusion: If McCaffrey didn’t have injury baggage on his career resume, he would be a consideration for the first overall pick in 2026, a spot he held for most of 2024 before opening the year with eight games on the injured reserve and a bust fantasy season. At age 30, the fantasy market is looking for more secure assets to build their rosters in the first round. McCaffrey has beast upside in yards, scoring, and catches, but can he post another impact season?
The 49ers’ offense will flow through him. How do I price in his injury risk? The answer is a don’t, as I want to show his potential and let the fantasy market decide his risk/reward price point. McCaffrey feels like a great value late in the first round, especially for the drafters that draft multiple teams. With one fantasy team, he falls into my fade category.
The Lions have a much weaker RB2 option in 2026, after David Montgomery signed with the Texans.Detroit scored 564 and 481 points over the past two seasons, compared to 389 and 353 points by the Falcons. A difference of 303 points, or 51 rushing and receiving touchdowns.Gibbs had 302 and 320 touches over the past two seasons.He comes off his most explosive year in big plays (seven gained 40 yards or more).Over his last 35 games, Gibbs scored 40 touchdowns (the Lions’ back scored 59 times over this span.Gibbs has been the top-scoring running back over the past two seasons (363.90 and 367.90) in PPR formats.He had an explosive finish to the 2024 season over five games (28.40, 25.40, 26.30, 46.00, and 35,50 fantasy points).Added T Blake Miller with the 17th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and signed C Cade Mays for $25 million for three years.Gibbs has missed one game in his NFL career.High-floor player in the passing game.Question Marks:
New offensive coordinator (Drew Petzing) who comes from a struggling franchise (Arizona).Gibbs scored under 10.00 PPR fantasy points in four games.Conclusion: Scoring and offensive play give Gibbs a significant edge over Bijan Robinson, but the Falcons’ top back has beaten Gibbs in combined yards (4,185 to 3,768) and catches (140 to 129) over the previous two seasons. Most data supports Detroit’s stud running back, and he looks poised to have an all-time great season if the Lions indeed give him a workhorse opportunity. My early projections for Gibbs don’t reflect an increase in workload (320 touches), which is something I need to consider in my next update.
Over the first 10 games of 2025, the Colts scored 321 points, highlighted by 39 touchdowns and 17 field goals over 100 possessions.Taylor was the best fantasy running back over his first 10 starts (1,399 combined yards, 17 touchdowns, and 30 catches on 219 touches), gaining 6.0 yards per rush and 8.7 yards per catch.He finished with a career high in touches (369), with no missed games for the second time in his six-year career.12 plays gained 20 yards or more, with five reaching the 40-yard mark.Taylor had the best passing-catching opportunity of his career (46/378/2 on 55 targets).Question Marks:
Is Indy’s offensive success early repeatable in 2026? Was Daniel Jones the key to the Colts high scoring ceiling? Is he healthy?How does the loss of Michael Pittman affect their passing game? Great opportunity for Tyler Warren, but can Alec Pierce beat WR1 coverage?Did the Colts overpay for Daniel Jones ($88 million for two seasons) and Alec Pierce ($116 million for four years) in the offseason?Conclusion: Taylor is a special running back who gets overlooked in the fantasy market due to the team he plays on and 16 missed starts from 2022 to 2024. He’s scored 12 touchdowns or more in four (12, 20, 12, and 20) of his six years in the NFL, giving him 57 TDs over 84 games. Great frontrunner back, as Taylor can wear down defenses in the fourth quarter. Indy scored 466 points last year, compared to 377 in 2024. On the downside, I’m not confident that the Colts will replicate their early scoring success from 2024.
Barkley has a lot in common with Jonathan Taylor as far as fantasy opportunity, except that he has a running quarterback who will snipe many in close touchdowns.He brings pass-catching upside, but the Eagles tend to rank low in the NFL in passing attempts.A new offensive coordinator (Sean Mannion) featured Josh Jacobs over the past two seasons (607 touches across 32 games) despite gaining only 4.2 yards per carry.Over the past four years, Barkley has had a high floor in touches (352, 288, 378, and 317) while sitting out six matchups.Best running back in the NFL in 2024 (2,005 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns, and 21 plays gained at least 20 yards – eight reached the 40-yard mark).Barkley had much smaller run lanes in 2025 (4.1 yards per carry – 5.8 in 2024), due to a change at offensive coordinator and regression in offensive play.Question Marks:
In the offseason, did the Eagles lose more than they gained? Traded AJ Brown and replaced him with rookie WR Makai Lemon.Is the direction of Philadelphia’s offensive line moving in the wrong direction?Can Barkley regain his scoring edge? And will the Eagles give him more chances in the passing game?Conclusion: At age 29, Barkley still has juice in the tank, but he has had a wide range of outcomes from year to year since arriving in the NFL as a hot-shot rookie running back in 2018. To earn a top-5 running back ranking in 2026, he must score over 300.00 PPR fantasy points, a threshold Barkley has reached twice over eight years. 350 touches is well within reach, but he needs more touchdowns, big plays, and catches to reach my expectations. I like the Eagles’ offensive coordinator change, suggesting Barkley regains some of his lost fantasy momentum and becomes a second-round fantasy value.
Brown plays in the right offense to offer three-down value, but the Bengals scored only 12, 11, and 11 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons.Cincinnati’s top back lacked explosiveness over the past two seasons with starting touches (4.4 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per catch, with 18 of his 584 chances gaining 20 yards or more).He struggled over his first seven games (9.77 PPR fantasy points per game) in 2025 with Joe Burrow injured.Brown was a much better player over his final 10 starts (147/709/5 – 4.8 yards per carry with 47 catches for 343 yards and five scores). He averaged 19.4 touches over this span.Comes off a career high in touches (301), rushing yards (1,019), catches (69), and receiving yards (437).Question Marks:
Can the Bengals’ core players stay healthy for a whole season? If so, their RBs and WRs should score impact fantasy points.Over the past four years, Brown had 355 touches (college over 12 games), 56 (backup player), 283, and 301. Does he fit the profile of a high-volume running back?Will Cincinnati score more on the ground?Brown scored over 20.00 PPR fantasy points in only three games last year, two of which came in Week 16 (32.90) and Week 17 (29.10).Conclusion: Brown can’t match the pedigree of many of the top 12 running backs drafted in 2026, but he plays in an offense that could rank first in the NFL if somehow everyone stayed healthy. Cincinnati scored 55 touchdowns in 2024, with Joe Burrow throwing the ball 652 times. Their top back will be active again in 2026 while ranking 10th (256.00) and 7th (283.40) in PPR scoring over the past two years. The bet on Chase is more on the Bengals’ offense than his perceived fantasy value/opportunity.
Elite college stats and pedigree over his final two seasons, highlighted by gaining 7.0 yards per rush in 2024 with 30 touchdowns.The Raiders gave him 321 touches in his rookie year, helping his value in touchdowns (10) and catches (55).New offensive coordinator and head coach, with a big investment in a rookie quarterback.Las Vegas beefed up its offensive line (signed C Tyler Linderbaum for $81 million for three seasons), along with a third-round investment in T Trey Zuhn.Their offense will run through Jeanty and Brock Bowers.Starting LT Kolton Miller missed 13 games in 2025 with an ankle issue. RG Jackson Powers-Johnson was on the sidelines for nine matchups in his sophomore season after getting drafted in the second round in 2025.Question Marks:
Jeanty gained only 3.7 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per catch in his rookie season with six plays gaining 20 yards or more.Is Fernando Mendoza ready to be a rookie stud? Or does Kurt Cousins stiff-arm him out of the gate?The Raiders lack a frontline WR1 and a go-to scoring wideout in the red zone.Jeanty has an impact ratio of only 17.6% last season due to posting only three outcomes with 20.00 PPR fantasy points or more (34.50, 24.80, and 31.80).Conclusion: Jeanty has a winning running back opportunity, but he needs the Raiders to create more scoring chances and open up bigger running lanes. By gaining a half-yard per rush more and one additional yard per catch, he would add a minimum of 200 more combined yards to his stat sheet with a natural progression in touchdowns. I expect more impact showing in 2026, and Jeanty is worth the investment of an RB4 for drafters who believe in the Raiders’ offense.
Cook comes off a career-high 332 touches, leading to his third consecutive 1,000-yard season.His scoring has been much improved across his last 38 games (35 touchdowns).The Bills won’t commit to him on passing downs (33/291/2 last year), less than half of their 2025 running back receiving opportunity (68/664/6 on 88 targets).Buffalo’s running backs ranked second in yards per catch (9.8).The Bills led the NFL in rushing attempts (547), rushing yards (2,714), and rushing touchdowns (30) last season, with running backs accounting for 419 carries for 2,100 yards (2nd) and 15 touchdowns.Cook ranked 8th (266.70) and 6th (305.20) in PPR fantasy points over the past two seasons.New offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael featured the running back positions in Drew Brees’s best seasons in New Orleans.Question Marks:
After a career season, can Cook repeat? He’s missed two games with Buffalo over four years.The Bills lost G David Edwards to the Saints in the offseason (four years for $61 million).Can Josh Allen regain his passing momentum in attempts, yards, and passing touchdowns?Conclusion: Cook was on the field for 57.1% of Buffalo’s plays last year, which leaves openings for some empty days (four in 2025, but Week 18 was due to minimal snaps) when game flow doesn’t break his way. He tied Bijan Robinson for second in running back impact ratio (52.9%) in 2025, thanks to scoring 20.00 fantasy points or more in nine of his 17 starts.
Cook plays in a high-scoring offense that features the running back position, giving him two plus check marks. Unfortunately, Josh Allen snipes rushing touchdowns, and Buffalo doesn’t give him enough pass-catching chances to help his slow games.
Over his first 44 games in the NFL, Achane averaged 18.53 PPR fantasy points per game and 1.14 fantasy points per touch.He comes off career highs in touches (295), rushing yards (1,350), and touchdowns (12).His floor in the passing games over the past two seasons (78/592/6 and 67/488/4) helped his consistency factor.Achane led running backs in fantasy points between 15.00 and 19.90 (nine games), but scored higher than 22.00 fantasy points only twice (26.20 and 31.00).Added T Kadyn Proctor in the 2026 NFL Draft (12th overall pick)Question Marks:
Miami signed a running quarterback, suggesting a decline in passing attempts and some sniped rushing touchdowns.The Dolphins brought in a defensive-minded head coach, but promoted their Bobby Slowik from pass game coordinator to offensive coordinator.Miami’s running backs gained 5.4 yards per carry last season, but only 4.00 in 2024.Conclusion: Achane is the only difference-maker offensive player in the Dolphins’ offense. Miami has below-league-average receiving talent at wide receiver and tight end, which will allow defenses to press the line of scrimmage in run support. Last summer, Achane battled a calf issue in August, but he didn’t miss a game.
The Dolphins signed him to a $68 million contract for four years in the offseason, showing their trust in his season. His 2025 season ended with a shoulder injury that required surgery. There’s a lot to like, but betting on bottom-tier offenses tends to leave fantasy rosters with some empty days and no reason to play late in the year. I sense a fade despite his winning resume.
Henry is a beast of a man who has played at an elite level over his two seasons with the Ravens (5.6 yards per carry, 38 touchdowns over 34 games, and 39 plays gained at least 20 yards) at age 30 and 31.He has over 300 touches in four consecutive years and in six of his past seven seasons.Since 2019, Henry averaged 114.7 combined yards, 0.98 touchdowns, and 18.77 PPR fantasy points per game.Henry needs to score 43 more touchdowns to break Emmitt Smith’s record (164). He is one score (122) behind Marcus Allen (123), which would rank him third all-time.Baltimore drafted G Olaivavega Ioane 14th overall in the 2026 MLB Draft.Question Marks:
The Ravens signed G John Simpson ($30 million for three years), but lost C Tyler Linderbaum ($81 million for three seasons).Baltimore has a new head coach (Jesse Minter) and offensive coordinator (Declan Doyle).Henry scored under 15.00 fantasy points in nine games in 2025.Conclusion: Henry ranked 4th (337.40) and 8th (282.50) in PPR running back scoring over the past two seasons, and the Ravens played without Lamar Jackson for four games last year. Baltimore wants to play from the lead and play top-tier defense, giving Henry another workhorse opportunity. He works hard to stay in shape, and his ceiling is based on power and chances. Boring ride at times, but his results should pay his fantasy bills, even at age 32.
Some fantasy drafters have fought for Hampton in the early draft season, highlighted by him have peak ADP of 5.Chargers’ new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has produced a top-five running back in three consecutive years (2023: Raheem Mostert – 268.70, 2024: De’Von Achane – 300.00, and 2025: De’Von Achane – 322.80).Last year, Los Angeles’ backs ranked 27th in PPR fantasy points (316.00), 144.50 fewer than Miami, despite scoring only one fewer touchdown (37).Their backs gained only 4.1 yards per carry with eight scores on the ground.The Chargers added four offensive linemen in the draft (C Jake Slaughter – 2nd, T Travis Burke – 4th, G Logan Taylor – 6th, and G Alex Harkey – 6th), along with two signings (C Tyler Biadasz – $30 million for three years, G Cole Strange – two years for $13 million, and T Trey Pipkins – $10 million for two seasons).Hampton’s 2025 stats projected over 17 games came to 1,392 combined yards with nine touchdowns and 60 catches (253.2 PPR fantasy points).His best fantasy value came in three matchups (24.90, 27.50, and 20.00).Question Marks:
Los Angeles has ranked poorly in running back receiving stats over the past two years (43/270/2 on 55 targets and 63/386/2 on 69 targets) with Jim Harbaugh as the Chargers’ head coach.The Chargers lost G Zion Johnson to the Browns ($49.5 million for three years).Justin Herbert must play better, along with his offensive line (60 sacks allowed in 2025).Conclusion: Hampton brings a power running back profile with winning speed for his size, and the Chargers will feature him in their passing game. His floor should be 260.00 fantasy points with a healthy season, but his breakout ADP needs another gear. I’m giddy about his outlook, and his summer reports have been positive.
Sometimes, fantasy drafters have to bet on the come, so the tee box is yours; swing for the fences or put your tail between your legs and look for safer options. Hampton has a breakout profile, which seems like a steal if he slips into the second round.
The history of the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, and Andy Reid is well known, giving Walker a chance at being a special player in 2026.Walker has never had more than 255 touches in a season.The Seahawks featured him in a split role over the past two seasons, but never trusted him as goal line scoring option.His pass-catching resume paints a higher floor with Kansas City.He works hard to stay in shape while maintaining a high profile away from the field.Question Marks:
When will Patrick Mahomes regain his previous form?Do the Chiefs have enough quality receiving options for their offense to rank highly in score this year?Last year, Kansas City ranked 26th in running back stats in PPR formats (1,791 combined yards, 13 touchdowns, and 64 catches), leading to 321.10 fantasy points.They gained only 3.9 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per catch.Conclusion: Walker has ranked outside the top 20 running backs over the past three seasons while missing six games in 2024. He’s scored 31 touchdowns across 58 games. The Chiefs traded for him with the plan to feature him as high volume back. I gave him 307 touches in my latest version of my projections, leaving room for him to beat my early outlook. More of a value than a player to move up in drafts.
Over the first 10 weeks of 2025, with DJ Dobbins healthy, Harvey was on the field for 29.2% of the Broncos’ snaps.He averaged 9.99 PPR fantasy points over this span on 7.5 per game, resulting in him scoring 1.332 fantasy points per touch.The Broncos upped his snaps from 19.3 per game to 40. 1 across his final nine matchups. Unfortunately, he gained only 3.3 yards per carry down the stretch, with 0.891 fantast per touch.Sean Payton has a history of featuring his backs in the passing game (87/616/5 on 118 targets in 2025 and 96/528/4 on 119 targets in 2024), but Denver’s back must make bigger plays in the passing game to increase their fantasy value.Harvey scored 12 TDs with more value than expected catching the ball in his rookie season (47/356/5 on 58 targets), while gaining 7.6 yards per catch.His final two years in college showed a much better player on early downs (226/1,416/16 and 232/1,577/22), an area he must improve on this year.Question Marks:
Last year, the Broncos rotated in three backs every week.J.K. Dobbins isn’t going away with an injury, and Jonah Coleman will be a factor in this backfield at some point in the year.I view Coleman as a must-have handcuff to RJ Harvey.Harvey has a torn ACL on his college resume in 2021.Conclusion: Last year, Harvey finished 20th in PPR fantasy points (207.70) despite only being on the field for 43.8% of Denver’s plays. He’ll work as change of pace back in the run game when J.K. Dobbins is upright. I expect him to be more active this year catching the ball, helping his floor. Harvey was a fantasy edge from Week 13 to Week 17 in PPR fantasy points (21.20, 22.10, 11.50, 22.10, and 18.60) while scoring over 15.00 fantasy points in three other matchups (19.80, 24.10, and 16.60).
Based on my projections, Harvey is a great cheat RB2 who is mispriced in the early draft season. Denver has a top defense with talent on the offensive side of the ball, suggesting they will play from the lead in many games, giving their backs plenty of action in the fourth quarter. I will be looking to buy Harvey in front of his ADP in all formats, but he does still have some injury risk, which is why I will fight for Johan Coleman as his handcuff.
Over the past two seasons in Green Bay, Jacobs ranked sixth (296.30) and 13th (239.10) in PPR fantasy points. He missed two games in 2025, with a sharp decline in snaps and touches after Week 10 due to calf and hamstring issues.He’s had over 300 touches three times (306, 393, and 337) in his career, with his best seasons coming in even years.Despite his volume opportunity, Jacobs gained 4.0 yards per rush in four of his seven seasons in the NFL.He scored 31 touchdowns in his 34 games with the Packers (including the playoffs).Jacobs has been more explosive in the passing game in Green Bay (nine catches of 20 yards or more), compared to eight scores first 73 contests.Question Marks:
An off-the-field issue this spring invites a suspension by the NFL in 2026.Green Bay must play better offensively to create more scoring chances.Conclusion: I sense that Jacobs doesn’t face any changes, meaning his suspension may not come until 2027. If this is the case, he projects as a slight value. The Packers will give him all he can handle this year, partly due to unproven running back options on their depth chart. Green Bay may trade for another running back before the start of the season, and that player could move to RB2 and potentially steal some chances from Jacobs. I have him in my neutral category in August while following his news.
Third overall pick in 2026 after two highly productive seasons despite working in a rotational role with Jadarian Price.40 touchdowns<w:t>across his final 28 games at Notre Dame while gaining 6.9 yards per catch and 9.4 yards per reception.Love steps into an offense that threw the ball a league-high 649 times last season with two talented wide receivers and an elite tight end.Last year, Bijan Robinson was a beast running back with Tyler Allgeier as his handcuff. On the downside, the Falcons’ backs had 143 more rushing attempts, resulting in 819 more rushing yards and eight touchdowns.Arizona added two notable offensive linemen in the offseason (G Chase Bisontis – 2nd-round draft pick in 2026 and G Isaac Seumalo – three years for $31.5 million).New head coach (Mike LaFleur) who led the Rams to a dynamic offensive season last year.Question Marks:
How much will the Cardinals rotate in a second back?Which improves an offensive line more: a great running back or talented blocking options? Arizona allowed 59 sacks in 2025.Will Love be at his best late in the season when fantasy championships are on the line?The Cardinals’ running backs ranked last in rushing attempts (299) and rushing yards (1,242) last year.Will Arizona be a more balanced offense this year?Conclusion: To be a top-12 running back in most fantasy seasons, a running back needs to score between 240.00 and 250.00 PPR fantasy points or 1,400 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and about 50 catches, which accidentally matched my player profile written in late June. Fun player to draft and follow, and his talent screams, “tee him up!”
Irving was an emerging running back in 2025 (12th in PPR scoring – 246.30) while working in an RB2 (46.1%) with Rachaad White.He gained 1,004 combined yards across his final nine games in 2024, with six touchdowns and 26 catches, leading to him averaging 18.04 PPR fantasy points.Tampa Bay gave him 22.5 touches per game over his first four starts last year, leading to him averaging 18.5 PPR fantasy points despite gaining only 3.3 yards per rush.More explosive in the passing game (10.2 yards per catch) over this span.A foot and shoulder issue cost him seven games.The Bucs gave him 113 touches across his final six matchups (18.8 per game), but Irving struggled to find daylight in the run game (3.4 yards per carry) with two touchdowns.Tampa’s offense was much weaker in 2025 compared to 2024.Question Marks:
The Buccaneers brought in Kenneth Gainwell to compete for touches while coming off his best NFL season at age 26.Irving was limited this offseason with his recovery from his shoulder issue. Tampa cleared him to practice in late July.Will Tampa continue to give Irving winning chances in the passing game?Conclusion: In the early draft season, the high-stakes market ranks Irving and Gainwell close together as RB3 options. They respect their incoming back more than what Irving did across his final nine games in 2024 and first four starts last year (212/1,117/5 with 45 catches for 417 yards and three scores). I view Irving as the Buccaneers’ higher-ceiling back, but I can’t dismiss his added injury risk based on his missed time in 2025. He is priced favorably in the NFFC, making him a value running back this draft season.
Warren comes off a career season in rushing attempts (211), rushing yards (958), and touchdowns (8).Pittsburgh had him on the field 47.3% of their snaps, just below Kenneth Gainwell (50.5%).The Steelers’ running backs ranked second in catches (115) and targets (133) while accounting for 33.7% of Pittsburgh’s receptions (highest rate of his career). They scored 15 times on the ground.A change in coaching staff should lead to the Steelers being more aggressive in passing the ball.Warren has slimmed down in the offseason, with the hopes of securing more touches in 2026.73 catches and 85 targets left the building when Kenneth Gainwell signed for Tampa.Question Marks:
Rico Dowdle comes off two seasons with over 1,000 rushing yards with an improved floor in catches (39/249/3 and 39/297/1).Does Warren offer a high enough ceiling to push his touches to a higher level, or does he work in a split role on early downs with an increased value on passing downs?Dowdle has 16 touchdowns across his last 49 games, compared to 13 by Warren over 48 matchups.Will Pittsburgh give big back Kalen Johnson goal-line and short-yardage carries in 2026?Conclusion: I upped Warren’s pass-catching chances in 2026, with a similar role in the run game. His ceiling will be tied to his ability to add more touchdowns to his equation. Warren brings a higher consistency factor than offering impact value. Viable cheat RB2, but he doesn’t appear to offer a difference-maker skill set due to his split role.
Hall checks the three boxes that fantasy drafters should strive to fill at the running back position – yards, scoring, and catches.The Jets paid him close to $46 million for three seasons in May.New York improved their offensive skill players in the offseason, with the exception of the quarterback position.Hall scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in eight games of his 16 starts last year.The Jets’ running backs ranked 24th in PPR fantasy points (332.30), but gained 9.1 yards per catch (3rd best in the league).Question Marks:
New York has three talented, viable running backs.Hall was listed on the injury report with a knee issue for multiple weeks last year, which was also the case in 2024. He had a torn ACL in his left knee.The Jets had the worst passing offense (2,784 yards with 14 touchdowns ~ 5.6 yards per catch) in the NFL.Conclusion: Some fantasy touts have been selling Hall as a great value in 2026. He’s gained over 1,350 combined yards in three consecutive years with a peak of 299 touches in 2023. Over the past three seasons, Hall missed two games. I sense more injury risk than his profile shows. His floor from week-to-week grades well, and he has the tools to offer impact games. Coin toss for me due to him underachieving my expectations over the past two years (RB16 and RB19).
The Rams have the best offense in the NFL in 2025 (518 points).Los Angeles’s running backs led the NFL in rushing yards (2,138). They gained 5.0 yards per carry with 17 scores on the ground.Williams scored 15.00 PPR fantasy points in nine of his 17 of his starts.Over the past three seasons, he scored 44 times across 45 starts.The Rams had him on the field for two-thirds of their plays, compared to 82.8% in 2024.His floor in catches has been trending slightly higher over the past three years (32, 34, and 36).Question Marks:
Blake Corum is trending toward more touches, which lowers the ceiling of Williams.Williams rushed for over 100 yards in only one of his 20 starts.He had 14 rushing attempts or fewer in 13 of his final 18 matchups.Conclusion: The Rams' new two-running-back rotation puts Williams in the steady category in PPR fantasy leagues. He’s ranked 7th (257.10), 7th (275.10), and 9th (265.30) over the past three years, which screams trusted asset, especially when adding in that Williams missed five games in 2023. Investing in players on high-scoring offenses can be a cheat code, and Corum still has a lot to prove to knock Williams off his starting block.
He failed to develop into a lead running back from 2022 to 2024. Williams proved to be a great value player in 2025, leading to him setting career highs in all his rushing stats (252/1,201/1He helped fantasy teams climb the standings across his first eight games (124/633/8 – 5.1 yards per carry with 24 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown).Maintained an active run over his next six starts (515 combined yards with three touchdowns and nine catches) on 19.2 touches per game.A shoulder/neck issue led to a dull finish over his final three games (43 combined yards with two catches, 13/54/1, and a missed game).Williams gained 3.3 yards after contact (2.6 in 2023 and 2.3 in 2024).Dallas had Williams on the field for 68.0% of their snaps over his 16 games.Question Marks:
The Cowboys gained a league-low 5.1 yards per catch, leading to them finishing last in receiving yards (only 7.0% of Dallas’s passing yards).Jaydon Blue should be more active as an RB2, which may lead to him stealing more passing chances.Dallas was a top-tier passing team last year (624 attempts with a league-high 4,735 passing yards).Conclusion: Williams is a power back, and he made the Cowboys’ offense much better at finishing drives with rushing touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. He had 20 carries inside the 20-yard line, up from eight in 2023 and 10 in 2024.
His ceiling tends to be lower than most top running backs, while offering some consistency (scoring over 10.00 fantasy points in 13 of his 16 starts). His potential loss of targets is a possible strike, especially when Dallas chases on the scoreboard in the second half. Williams was the 12th-best running back in 2025 in PPR fantasy points (244.80).
Henderson was boom or bust fantasy starting running back in his first year with New England (three impact games – 28.00, 32.30, and 30.10), but he scored under 10.00 PPR fantasy points in eight matchups.New England gave him high-volume starting snaps from Week 9 to Week 11, leading to explosive results (47/264/4 – 5.8 yards per carry with 10 catches for 66 yards and another score).He gained 20 or more rushing yards on six plays, with four of those plays gaining over 50 yards with touchdowns (69, 65, 55, and 52).The Patriots only gave him 43 carries over his first seven games (153 yards with one touchdown – 3.6 yards per rush).They also moved away from him running the ball in the postseason (9/27, 12/25, 3/5, and 6/19).Henderson scored two touchdowns in four games.New England drafted another offensive tackle (Caleb Lomu) in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft, and they signed G Alijah Vera-Tucker to a three-year deal for $42 million.Question Marks:
Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t going away unless fumbles reenter his equation, or he gets injured.Henderson must make better lane decisions on cutback runs.Will the Patriots’ offensive line play better in 2026? They gained 4.0 yards per carry outside of Henderson’s four big scoring plays while allowing 48 sacks.Conclusion: Henderson is an excellent RB2 selection in Best Ball formats due to his explosiveness. He should be more active and more consistent in his sophomore season. The Patriots’ young ball carrier checks the winning boxes in yards, touchdowns, and catches, while trailing the best running backs in the game in opportunity. With 18 touches a game (12.6 in 2025), Henderson would be a top 12 running back this year.
Reading between the lines of injuries is a critical part of success in the fantasy market. The sheep news reporters who believe that Zach Charbonnet will be back for Week 1 or even in October didn’t do their homework. Remember, all NFL coaches lie.Price has a great opportunity to establish himself over the first half of 2026, which should carry over to him maintaining an active role late in the year.He played Jeremiyah Love over the past two seasons, which helped hide his ceiling coming into the NFL.Over three seasons at Notre Dame, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry (280/1,692/21) with a minimum role in the passing game (15/162/3).Low-mileage back who looks poised to rock-and-roll as an RB1 in Seattle’s offense this year.In 2025, the Seahawks’ running back led the NFL in rushing attempts (463/2,002/19), but they were league average in yards per carry (4.3).Question Marks:
The Seahawks will rotate in a second back early in the year with Zach Charbonnet coming off his injury.Price must prove himself in pass protection, leaving an unknown ceiling for catches and receiving yards.Will he have enough touches late in the year to help fantasy teams win league and overall championships?Conclusion: In early August, Price falls into my breakout running back category, and he has a favorable ADP in most formats. Once there is more clarity to the public on the return date for Zack Charbonnet (I’m confident in his timetable), Price should rise sharply up draft boards. He then will be compared to different players, along with better expectations for his production. Also, one big play in the preseason will get the fantasy market giddy about his 2026 outlook. Target player while I ponder how much I’m willing to fight for him in drafts.
Over the past two seasons, the Lions scored 126 touchdowns (59 by their running backs), compared to 75 touchdowns by the Texans (30 running back scores).Houston wants to play great defense, suggesting many runs, especially in the second half when they play from the lead.The Texans’ offense has enough skill players to be much better in 202, which starts with better quarterback play.Houston ran the ball 44.9% of the time last year.Montgomery scored 35 touchdowns over his last 45 games for the Lions.Question Marks:
The Texans will use Montgomery in a rotation role with Woody Marks.He hasn’t been a workhorse back since 2021 (267 touches – 301 in 2020).Montgomery gained over 20 rushing yards four times across his last 343 carries.Houston’s running backs had 54 catches for 385 yards and three touchdowns on 77 targets in 2025 (Detroit – 101/808/5 on 123 targets).Conclusion: At age 29, the Texans' new lead running back should have a significant jump in touches. He projects as the goal-line runner with some value in the passing game. Double-digit touchdowns seem like a reasonable floor, and 250 touches point to at least 1,100 combined yards. Unfortunately, this combination added up to a backend RB2 ceiling.
In the end, a drafter must decide if Montgomery will beat my baseline in playing time in a much less potent offense. I’m not excited about him, but I do respect his floor and expected opportunity. He also missed six combined games in 2023 and 2024.
Skattebo brings a high motor and intensity to the running back position, but his light bulb appears to be dimly lit based on his lack of regard for his health and some unfavorable off-the-field moments in his rookie season.He was on a difference-maker run across five games from Week 3 to Week 5 (85/356/4 with 19 catches for 163 yards and one score), resulting in him averaging 20.18 PPR fantasy points per game over this span.A dislocated right ankle ended his rookie season in Week 8.The Giants gave him an elite opportunity over his best five games (20.8 per game).His final season at Arizona State (293/1,711/21 with 45 catches for 605 yards and three touchdowns) paints a higher three-down ceiling.New York’s new head coach wants to run the ball, and their offense should be much better if their top three players stay healthy.Question Marks:
New York will rotate in Tyrone Tracy, which may add length to Skattebo’s value.Will Skattebo’s willingness to take on physical contact lead to another injury?How many touchdowns will Jaxson Dart snipe in the Giants’ run game?Will his explosives be less in 2026 after suffering a severe ankle injury?Conclusion: I had Skattebo circled as a value running back with breakout upside last year in my research, but he didn’t fall late enough for me to fight for him in drafts. There’s a lot to like about his direction. At the same time, his decision-making with the ball in his hands could derail his ceiling with one bad hit when a safer route would be to step out of bounds or take what a defense gives him.
The high-stakes market likes him more than my projections, which makes sense. He does have a mid-tier RB2 feel, but how many games will Skattbo play? Torn, my gut says, “buy,” but my risk-averse draft style suggests only at a fair price.
Over 14 games in his rookie campaign, Judkins averaged 11.99 PPR fantasy points per game, which would have given him top 20 running back status if he played a full season.[Judkins averaged 11.99 PPR fantasy points per game]His floor rating (10+ FPPG) came in at 28.6%, but he failed to score over 30.00 fantasy points in any matchup.The Browns ranked 30th in the NFL in scoring (286 points), with 26 field goals and 32 touchdowns across a league-high 196 possessions.The Browns brought in a new head coach and offensive coordinator with ties to the Ravens’ offensive side of the ball.Cleveland gained only 5.8 yards per pass attempt last year, with 16 passing scores. Their offensive line allowed 53 sacks.Question Marks:
Can the Browns get enough out of the quarterback position to climb up the offensive rankings in all categories?Will Judkins be used more in the passing game?Cleveland gave him fewer than 60% of their snaps in 10 of his 14 games in his first year in the NFL.Conclusion: As a borderline backend RB2 by ADP this summer, Judkins has the making of a great value, with breakout upside, based on his talent and expected increased opportunity. For the fantasy team loading up on yellow stickers early, he should stand out as a target as a fourth/fifth piece to a fantasy roster depending on league size, draft flow, and scoring formats.
Etienne comes off a career-best in touchdowns (13) while having a floor of 1,399 combined yards in three of his four years in the NFL.He brings value in the passing game (35 catches or more in each year with the Jaguars) despite the appearance of being underutilized in this area (8.0 yards per catch in his career).Etienne ranked tied for sixth in floor ratio (58.8%), by scoring 15.00 PPR fantasy points in 10 of his 17 starts.Despite his success, he gained over 100 rushing yards only twice (16/143 and 19/124/1), with both coming over the first four weeks of the season. In four other contests, Etienne gained over 100 combined yards.Six of his final eight touchdowns last year came via the pass.Question Marks:
How much does Alvin Kamara have in the tank? And will he snipe goal-line chances and be active in the passing game?New Orleans scored only 31 touchdowns in 2025, compared to 55 by Jacksonville.What is the ceiling of the Saints’ old sophomore quarterback?Conclusion: The Jaguars had Etienne on the field for 59.8% of their plays last year, while New Orleans gave Kamara 71.5% of their snap across his first 10 games. The direction of Etienne should be up, and he has the potential to get 300+ touches if the Saints play much better offensively in 2026.
The Saints' backs ranked 32nd in the NFL in PPR fantasy points (258.70) last year. His foundation skill set and expected opportunity should pay his ADP bills, at a minimum. Think steady volume player with potentially another gear if New Orleans plays at a higher level offensively.[The Saints' backs ranked 32nd in the NFL in PPR fantasy points (258.70) last year]
Tweener back whose touches have declined in back-to-back seasons.He has had 50 catches or more three times in his four years in the NFL, helping his floor.Tampa gave him 336 touches in 2023, and White responded with 1,539 combined yards with nine scores and 64 catches.His yards per carry (4.3) came in at about the league average over the past two seasons, which was much better than his first two years (3.7 and 3.6).Only 13 rushing touchdowns in his career across 67 games (11 receiving).Question Marks:
The Commanders will most certainly feature another back at the goal line.Washington barely used their running backs in the passing game in 2025 (42/314/0 on 55 targets), leading to 73.40 receiving PPR fantasy points (the 49ers scored 304.20 to lead the NFL).If Jacory Croskey-Merritt has an injury, Kaytron Allen will jump to RB1 on early downs.Conclusion: As an RB3 and RB4 option, White has playable value in the fantasy market due to his expected pass-catching floor. His ceiling isn’t as high as some other rotational backs if given a full starting ride, but he works well as bye-week or short-term injury cover. I do like him better as an RB4 than RB3, which hinges on draft flow.
28 – D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (RK22 – NFFC ADP: 57)
Swift comes off the best season of his career (1,386 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 34 catches).Three consecutive years with over 1,000 combined yards.He has a higher passing floor based on his first three seasons with the Lions (46/357/2, 62/452/2, and 48/389/3).Only two missed games over the past three years, with a floor of 257 touches each season.50% floor ratio with a top-10 rating in impact value.Rushing for over 100 yards three times (14/108, 19/124/1, and 18/125/1).Chicago had him on the field for 54.0% of their snaps.Question Marks:
Kyle Monangai will continue to command touches, which lowers Swift’s ceiling.The Bears ran the ball 46.8% of the time last season.Conclusion: Based on his 2026 expected ADP and his 2025 finish in PPR fantasy points (232.60 – 14th), Swift brings a value feel, especially when adding in the direction of the Bears’ offense. Earlier in his career, he missed 11 games over three years, which could drift back into his equation based on the law of averages.
Last year, the Bears’ backs only had 52 catches on 79 targets, despite gaining 8.9 yards per catch. My projections reflect his lower pass-catching opportunity, but Ben Johnson did feature his running backs more in 2023 (75/496/1 on 102 targets) and 2024 (95/945/4 on 110 targets) with the Lions.
Swift is a veteran back who brings a reasonable floor in yards, scoring, and catches when healthy. I’ll upgrade him slightly in the next version of my projections, with all of it coming in the passing game.
His NFL resume over two seasons consists of 45 combined yards with three catches on 12 touches.Carolina selected him 46th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft (first running back selected).Only one winning season on his college resume (187/1,139/10 with 25 catches for 286 yards and one score).Question Marks:
How much speed does he lose after two ACL injuries?The Panthers will continue to rotate in a second running back.Carolina finished last year ranked 25th in PPR fantasy points (243.56), with a higher floor in the passing game (72/533/4 on 92 targets).Conclusion: At age 23, Brooks gets his third chance to prove his worth to the fantasy market. His injury risk can’t be dismissed, and he may have the same ceiling Carolina expected when drafting him. Go big or go home player with an unknown ceiling opportunity in catches or scoring. If the price fits, take a swing, but be careful not to pass on proven players drafted around him.
His summer hype has pushed him up draft boards in August.Here’s my final line from my player profile last summer: Possible handcuff for Travis Etienne drafters, and a dream of hitting on their year’s Bucky Irving.[Possible handcuff for Travis Etienne drafters, and a dream of hitting on their year’s Bucky Irving.]Showed scoring ability (46 touchdowns) over his final 35 games in college – seven scores (five rushing and two receiving for the Jaguars in his rookie season).Possible hidden pass-catching value (31/342/4 in 2022 and 27/239/2 in 2023) with Virginia Tech.Speed to burn, but Tuten gained over 20 yards only once over his 93 touches for Jacksonville.Jacksonville has talent at wide receiver, suggesting more scoring this year.Question Marks:
He averaged 16.9 touches across his final two seasons in college.The Jaguars will rotate in a second back, who looks poised to have the advantage at the goal line.Trevor Lawrence will snipe goal-line touchdowns.Conclusion: The excitement with Tuten is real, and I sense I have him under-projected in the passing game. The loss of Travis Etienne to the Saints opens up a close to a 1,400 yards opportunity with some value in scoring and catches. A player to fight for in the back-end RB2 range, with the talent to beat expectations by a wide margin. I will upgrade his pass-catching chances in my next projection update.
Stevenson was at his best over his final nine games (including the playoffs), leading to 646 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 27 catches (19.22 PPR fantasy points per game).He out-snapped TreVeyon Henderson 718 to 584 despite missing three games.His season opened with dull play across nine matchups (89/284/3 – 3.2 yards per carry with 17 catches for 174 yards).The Patriots finished ninth in PPR fantasy points (413.90)New England’s running backs scored 19 touchdowns last year.Question Marks:
TreVeyon Henderson has the higher ceiling, which could lead to fewer chances for Stevenson in 2026.He scored under 10.00 PPR fantasy points in six of his 14 matchups.Conclusion: For the fantasy teams looking for a rotation RB3, Stevenson gets enough touches in most games to fill that role. His passing-catch floor is reasonable, and New England will tee him up at the goal line. Better player than the fantasy market will give him credit for, highlighted by his 12 carries gaining 20 yards or more in 2025 (two reach the 40-yard mark).
Jones opens 2026 at age 31.He missed six games in 2023 and five in 2025.His big-play ability looked diminished last year (only two of his 160 plays gained at least 20 yards).The Vikings’ offensive decline was tied to poor quarterback play and massive sacks (60) allowed.Jones failed to score over 20.00 fantasy points over 12 contests.Question Marks:
Minnesota will rotate in two backs this year, with a third option nipping at Jones’ heels.The Vikings ranked 27th in running back PPR fantasy points (313.10).Conclusion: The excitement of Jones has left the building, but he will still catch some balls, with a chance to be a 15.00-fantasy-point player in multiple games in PPR formats. Jordan Mason brings injury risk, and he won’t catch many balls. If I happened to land Jones as a discount, rostering Demond Claiborne is a must.
The Titans’ offense ranked 31st in scoring (286 points).Pollard has gained over 1,000 rushing yards in four consecutive seasons.He’s caught at least 33 passes over the past five years.Over his last three seasons, Pollard gained 20 yards or more on 23 plays.His floor has been 275 touches from 2023 to 2025.Pollard has only missed five games over the past seven years in the NFL.Question Marks:
Tennessee had him on the field for 62.2% of their snaps.The Titans drafted a potential goal-line stud who has the talent to steal more over chances.They finished 30th in PPR fantasy points (310.00) for running backs.Conclusion: Resume player who fantasy drafters will try to beat due to competition for touches from a pass-catching back and a power runner who brings closing upside. He scored over 10.00 PPR fantasy points in eight of his 17 matchups, with floor ranging between 5.00 and 9.95 fantasy points in his other games. I see more strikes than reasons to fight for him, but Pollard could be a get out of the gate back.
Low-ceiling pass-catching back.The Bears gave him only 26 touches over his first five games in the NFL.Monangai flashed in Week 7 (13/81/1 with two catches for 13 yards), followed by winning value in Week 9 (26/176 with three catches for 22 yards) and Week 13 (22/130/1).He scored four consecutive games midseason.Chicago ran the ball 505 times in 2025.Question Marks:
Monangai lost his way over his final seven matchups (7.29 PPR fantasy points per game).The Bears gave him fewer than 50% of their snaps in 17 of his nine contests.Conclusion: His natural progression should be 225 touches, with most of his action coming on early downs. Monangai should have the advantage on in-close carries, with a hot-hand feel. He scored under 5.00 fantasy points last year, but four of those outcomes came out of the gate. Viable flex value over the long haul in PPR leagues, while possibly being challenging to time.
Last year, Hubbard was treated as the clear RB1 for the Panthers, but Rico Dowdle stole his ceiling.He’s missed four games over the past two seasons.After gaining over 1,100 combined yards in back-to-back seasons on 570 touches, Hubbard saw his opportunity decline by 42.5% in 2025.One bad tackle to Jonathan Brooks would give him a significant offensive role.Question Marks:
He failed to gain 20 yards on any of his 134 carries (eight over 250 chances in 2024.The Panthers gave him 112 catches over the past three years, but he lacked explosiveness (5.6 yards per catch).Conclusion: Done it before; back who will offer playable fantasy value at times. Hubbard needs volume of touches to regain RB2 status, and he has been more valuable to fantasy teams when bought at a discounted in 2023 and 2024. His direction isn’t ideal, suggesting Hubbard is a better swing at a discount than at a premium. A hamstring issue has slowed him down in mid-August.
At age 31, the fantasy market is set to put Kamara out to pasture based on his fantasy ADP.He missed six games last year with a right MCL strain.High-floor pass-catching back who saw his streak of gaining over 1,100 combined yards end after eight seasons in 2025.Question Marks:
Kamara failed to gain over 20 yards on any of his 131 carries, while reaching the end zone once.Travis Etienne looks poised to be a high-volume back in New Orleans this year.Conclusion: I believe Kamara has one more swing in his bag. He was on pace for 1,105 combined last year while not being healthy. His pass-catching sets a reasonable floor even if he gets 10 touches a game. I view him as bye week/injury cover player that works much better with his late RB5 status in the high-stakes market.
Wide Receivers
Despite missing one game, Nacua ranked first in PPR fantasy points (376.00 – 23.50 per game). He was my top projected wide receiver last summer.Nacua scored over 30.00 PPR fantasy points in five games (36.00, 35.70, 46.50, 34.50, and 31.90), with the latter two coming in the postseason.He has an elite floor ratio (84.2% over 15.00 PPR fantasy points) and impact ratio (63.2% over 20.00 PPR fantasy points) across 19 games.The next step in his growth is more touchdowns (14 over 19 starts – two were rushing).Nacua has seven catches or more in 14 games and double-digit targets 13 times.The Rams’ wide receivers led the NFL in touchdowns (27), while ranking second in catches (243), receiving yards (3,262), and targets (367).Question Marks:
Can the Rams repeat their explosive edge in scoring (74 touchdowns and 599 points over 19 games)?Matthew Stafford comes off a career season at age 37. He battled a back issue last summer, but the Rams’ stud QB was on the field for 1,332 of 1,350 plays.Nacua is the most underpaid player in the NFL based on his success on the field and his rookie contract (just over $4 million for four seasons). Will he hold out? Will the Rams pay him?Late last year, Nacua went off the rails a couple of times off the field. Is that a factor in his new deal?The Rams face DAL, @SEA, and @TB from Week 15 to Week 17.Conclusion: Based on Nacua’s play and the direction of the Rams’ team, there isn’t a reason to fade him this year. Unfortunately, repeatability in fantasy sports, especially after great seasons, remains a tall task. My bigger fear is that Stafford has an injury, leading to Los Angeles losing their elite scoring edge. In addition, without a new contract, Nacua may not work as hard at his job. A bag full of cash also invites another layer of concern.
Twice over the past three seasons, Chase played 16 games without Joe Burrow but still managed to post 100-catch years (2023 – 100/1,216/7 and 2025 – 125/1,412/8).His targets (175 and 185) and catches (127 and 125) have been elite in back-to-back years.Chase brings a high ceiling in scoring (13 TDs in 2020 and 17 TDs in 2024) and big plays (16 catches of 40 yards or more in his top two scoring years).Joe Burrow has been a top quarterback in passing touchdowns three times over the past five years (34, 35, and 43), with his two failures tied to missed games due to injuries.Chase scored 25.00 PPR fantasy points in four (36.50, 29.00, 25.40, and 38.10) of his first seven games last year but missed the fairway in his other three matchups (2/26, 5/59, and 5/23).Over his final nine starts in 2025, Chase never scored more than 25.00 fantasy points in a game, and he played six of those contests with Joe Burrow.The Bengals gave him double-digit targets in 10 of his 16 starts. Cinci threw the ball 652 and 640 times over the past two seasons (most in the NFL). Their wideouts ranked first (33) and third (23) in receiving touchdowns over their past two seasons.Question Marks:
Will Joe Burrow stay on the field for 17 games?Poor offensive line play in 2025 led to Cincinnati needing to get the ball out quicker, resulting in them gaining only 6.6 yards per pass attempt.Can Chase outscore and outproduce Puka Nacua?Cincinnati completed only 52.3% of their passes to their wide receivers last year (53.3% in 2024).The Bengals face @CAR, @IND, and BAL from Week 15 to Week 17 this year.Conclusion: I’ve been a big fan of Chase since he arrived in the NFL, and he has an excellent opportunity to lead the league in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns. The Bengals’ defense allowed the third most points (492) last year, and they lost their top pass rusher, Trey Hendrickson, to the Ravens. If drafting one fantasy team and I have a decision between Nacua and Chase, I’m selecting the Bengals’ stud wideout. The Rams should run the ball better, while Cincinnati continues to air the ball out.
Sam Darnold was the key reason why Smith-Njigba became a more explosive player last year, highlighted by his 27 catches of 20 yards or more, with eight reaching the 40-yard mark. His yards per catch jumped from 10.0 to 11.3 to 15.1 over the past two years.Smith-Njigba had a floor of 90 combined yards over his first 11 games in 2025, setting an impressive fantasy floor. He reached that threshold only four more times (7/91/2, 7/113, 8/96, and 10/153/1) over his final nine starts.His catch rate (73.5%) was phenomenal considering his depth of catches and targets.He had double-digit targets in 10 of his 20 matchups.Darnold has 22 completions of 20 yards or more over the past two seasons, thanks to playing with two elite wide receivers (Justin Jefferson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba). He had 122 completions of 20 yards or more (17.8%).Seattle’s wideouts led the NFL in yards per catch (14.4) last year, but finished 12th in catches (201) and 18th in targets (290).Question Marks:
The Seahawks ranked 29th in the NFL in passing attempts (481), with Smith-Njigba accounting for 33.7% of those targets in the regular season.Seattle’s other wideouts combined for 82 catches for 1,090 yards and eight touchdowns on 127 targets.Their offense must finish more drives with touchdowns (51 in 2025) while settling for 48 field goal attempts. The Seahawks scored 92 times across their 186 possessions (49.5%).Conclusion: Smith-Njigba gets open and catches the ball at a high rate. He can work the short areas of the field to move the chains while also taking the top off a defense. His direction is exciting, but repeated success probably requires Seattle to put a few more balls in the air. The Seahawks will look for him on a high percentage of passing plays, resulting in high impact (64.7%) and floor ratios (82.4%). Great fantasy building block, who looks under-projected by me in 2026.
Five consecutive years with over 1,000 yards receiving.Missed five matchups over the past two seasons, painting a lower-scoring ceiling (six and three TDs in 2024 and 2025) than he showcased in his great 2023 season (135/1,862/14 on 181 targets and 185 chances).Dallas created bigger plays for him last year (14.4 yards per catch – career best).From 2022 to 2024, Lamb had 156, 181, and 152 targets, leading to 343 catches.Dallas ranked third and second in pass attempts in 2024 (637) and 2025 (624), with 398 (8th) and 419 completions (2nd).The Cowboys’ wide receiver led the NFL in catches (253), receiving yards (3,605), and targets (387) while accounting for 76% of Dallas’s receiving yards. They gained 14.3 yards per catch (2nd to the Seahawks).Question Marks:
How much does George Pickens hurt CeeDee Lamb’s receiving ceiling this year? It appears to be much more than coming into 2025.Can Lamb regain his scoring edge?Will the Cowboys’ defense be better this year (allowed the most 511 points in the NFL last year)? If so, how does that affect Dak Prescott’s passing attempts?Dallas draws @LAR, JAC, and NYG from Week 15 to Week 17.Conclusion: In essence, Lamb missed five games last year (three DNPs, one with seven snaps and no targets, and a minimal role in Week 18 – one catch for four yards on one target). Over his other 12 starts, he caught 74 passes for 1,073 yards and three touchdowns on 116 targets, which translates to 105/1,520/4 on 164 targets across 17 full games. In the end, Lamb should score more this season but see some regression in yards per catch.
In 2024, the Steelers’ wide receivers ranked poorly in catches (139 – 31st), receiver yards (2,003), touchdowns (10), and targets (229 32nd), but gained the second most yards per catch (14.1).A switch to the Cowboys’ offense led to an elite pass-catching opportunity (253/3,605/10 on 387 targets ~ 14.3 yards per catch).When CeeDee Lamb was injured, Dallas discovered that Pickens was much more than a one-trick pony. He could make defenders miss close to the line of scrimmage and create yards after the catch over the short areas of the field.Pickens scored over 20.00 PPR fantasy points in eight of his 17 starts, highlighted by four games (33.40, 31.80, 29.40, and 29.60).He had double-digit targets in four matchups, with a floor of nine chances in seven other matchups.Question Marks:
Some drafters will view his success as a result of CeeDee Lamb getting hurt.With more competition for targets in four more games, how much should Pickens’ outlook be lowered in 2026?After setting career highs in catches (93), receiving yards (1,429), touchdowns (9), and targets (137), can he push his ceiling higher?Conclusion: I view Pickens as a complete wide receiver now, as he checks multiple upside boxes for me – scoring, big plays, high-floor target, and he plays in a high-volume passing attack. Dallas barely uses their running backs in the passing game (only 5.1 yards per catch last year – 61/308/3 on 82 targets), creating more chances for their wideouts. Pickens should be a value target in the second round of 12-team fantasy drafts.
St. Brown has 90 catches or more in five consecutive seasons, while receiving elite WR1 status over his past three years – 119/1,539/10, 115/1,269/12, and 117/1,410/11.He’s been the third-best wide receiver in PPR formats over the past three seasons (331.90, 317.90, and 324.00).His ceiling tends to be less explosive than the best wide receiver in the game, but St. Brown posted two impact showings in 2025 (9/122/3 and 13/164/2). Over the past four years, he’s had two outcomes higher than 30.00 PPR fantasy points each season.He had 10 targets or more in nine of his 17 starts last year, with a floor of 15.00 PPR fantasy points in 11 contests (10 in 2024 and 14 in 2023 – most consistent wideout that year).Detroit ranks third in PPR fantasy points for wide receivers in 2025 (226/3,082/24 on 335 targets), thanks to ranking second in touchdowns.Question Marks:
Last year, I saw many fantasy teams draft running backs and wide receivers with less proven resumes in front of St. Brown, highlighted by Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers.Will the Lions run a more balanced offense than last year (2025: ran the ball 43.2% of the time, compared to 49.2% in 2024)?Detroit plays @MIN, NYG, and @CHI from Week 15 to Week 17.Conclusion: Even though I have both Dallas’ wide receivers projected higher than Amon-Ra St. Brown, I would still select the Lions’ stud wideout first due to his consistency factor. At the same time, I’m showing that George Pickens appears to be overlooked in the second round.
For those drafters who wish to beat St. Brown by selecting another player, they will be adding to his list: Joffrey Baratheon, Cersei Lannister, Ilyn Payne, the Mountain, the Hound, and so on.
Jefferson has gained over 1,000 receiving yards in six consecutive seasons to start his NFL career, despite missing seven games in 2023 and playing with Moe, Larry, and Curly at quarterback last season.Minnesota ranked poorly in completions (298 – 30th), pass attempts (484 – 29th), passing yards (3,195), and passing touchdowns (18 – 29th) last season.Jefferson averaged 9.6 targets over his last 78 starts.He still can’t match the best wide receiver in the game in touchdowns (2021 – 10, 2022 – 9, and 2024 – 10).Over his time in Minnesota, his opportunity was helped by the Vikings ranking highly in pass attempts in 2021 (604), 2022 (672), and 2023 (631). Kyler Murray has never attempted more than 558 passes in a season.J.J. McCarthy didn’t receive his Christmas Card from Jefferson last year, which makes Murray a slam dunk to open 2026 as Minnesota’s starting quarterback.Question Marks:
The Vikings allowed 60 sacks last season (49 in 2024) while attempting only 484 passes. Despite their weakness, Minnesota added minimal offensive line help via the draft or free agency in the offseason.Can Kyler Murray become a better deep-passing quarterback? He gained only 6.8 yards per pass attempt across his last 30 starts. Over his first three seasons, he had 33 completions of 40 yards or more (only six over his last 1,360 pass attempts).Jefferson comes off a career low in touchdowns (2) and catch rate (59.6%).Conclusion: Minnesota will get their stud wideout over 150 targets in 2026, and he’ll have a natural progression in more scoring and in his catch rate. His ceiling is the top wideout in the NFL, but it requires the Vikings to throw the ball well over 600 times. Their head coach wants to attack in the deep passing game, highlighted by Sam Darnold’s success in 2024 (4,319 passing yards with 36 scores). In the end, Kyler Murray drives his bus while J.J. McCarthy has to remove the tail off his donkey season.
Early fantasy drafters don’t respect Flowers growth in 2025. He ranked seventh in PPR fantasy points (246.30) in any offense that played well below expectations offensively due to Lamar Jackson getting injured.The Ravens ranked last in the NFL in pass attempts (422) and completions (278) in 2025.Flowers accounted for 30.9% of Baltimore’s completions last year and 36.9% of their receiving yards.The Ravens’ top wideout set career highs in catches (86), receiving yards (1,211), and targets (118) last year.Three of his best four fantasy days (20.60, 22.20, and 29.80) came over the last five weeks.He had no impact games with a floor ratio (15.00 fantasy points or higher) in 29.4% of his starts, with two bust outcomes (2/13 and 2/6).Question Marks:
How does a new coaching staff affect Lamar Jackson’s passing opportunity?Flowers can’t have a trust floor in most starts until he scores more touchdowns (16 over 50 games).His WR1 profile last year (246.30 PPR fantasy points) would have ranked 15th in 2023 and 11th in 2024.Conclusion: The structure of Baltimore's receiving core in 2026 paints another gear in Flower’s opportunity and fantasy ceiling. Unfortunately, he doesn’t check enough boxes for the fantasy market to fight for him in drafts. The Ravens’ tight ends have lost their previous catch luster, and Baltimore doesn’t feature their running backs in the passing game. Based on his ADP in the NFFC, I expect him to beat expectations, which means I’m buying at a discount rather than a premium despite my positive outlook in his projections.
Rice’s off-the-field baggage has been reflected in his early ADP, along with Patrick Mahomes coming off an injury.His price will certainly rise once the fantasy lights go on in August.When healthy, Rice is by far the Chiefs’ best receiving option.His success over eight games in 2025 (53/591/6 on 78 targets) translates to 113 catches for 1,256 yards and 13 touchdowns over 17 games, or a 300.00+ PPR fantasy point wideout.The Chiefs will feature him close to the line of scrimmage, highlighted by an elite catch rate (74.6%).Question Marks:
He had minor surgery on his right knee in May.Rice could have another suspension coming.Over three seasons in the NFL, He’s missed 23 of his possible 51 starts.Conclusion: Kansas City expects Patrick Mahomes to be ready for Week 1. If there is no more negative news on Rice and the NFL rules on his potential suspension before September, I could see him moving into the first round in some drafts, ahead of Justin Jefferson, which comes down to more of a bet on Patrick Mahomes than Kyler Murray. Travis Kelce has been spinning hits over the field, and his best NFL days are in the rearview mirror, so that leaves Xavier Worthy to knock Rice off the Chiefs’ top receiving block.
Over his last 29 games, London has been a high-floor WR1, leading to him averaging 5.8 catches for 75.4 yards and 0.55 touchdowns per game (16.64 PPR fantasy points per game).London was exceptional over a six-game stretch last season (8/110/1, 10/158/1, 9/118/3, 6/104/1, and 7/119). He averaged 11.2 targets over this span.The starting quarterback position is unsettled in Atlanta due to the Falcons signing Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix coming off an injury. Which option is the best for London’s success and opportunity?A new coaching staff that was willing to pass the ball in Cleveland despite a good defense. Browns led the NFL in pass attempts (661) in 2024 while ranking fifth in 2023 (624).The Falcons signed London to a four-year extension for $141 million in June.Question Marks:
Atlanta completed only 60.9% of their passes last season with only 19 passing touchdowns.London missed five games last year due to a left knee injury. He has been limited early this summer with an unknown issue that appears to be minor.Conclusion: After digging deeper into London’s profile and potential opportunity, I could be shortchanging the Falcons’ passing opportunity in 2026 and the ceiling of their top wideout. His outlook will be updated in my next version of my projections. I’m buying in 2026.
After getting paid $96 million for three seasons last August, McLaurin battled injuries for most of 2025, leading to a bust year (38/582/3 on 60 targets over 10 starts).His best year came in 2024 (82/1,098/13) with Jayden Daniel starting at quarterback. His success ranked seventh in PPR fantasy points (268.80).Despite his success in 2024, McLaurin finished with a five-year low in targets (117 – 134, 130, 120, and 132 from 2020 to 2023).Other than 2024, he scored only 28 times over 90 games.Washington lacks passing-catching upside at running back and tight end, giving McLaurin a clear-cut WR1 opportunity in the Commanders’ offense.Question Marks:
McLaurin will turn 31 in mid-September.The Commanders finished 25th in passing attempts in 2024 (525) and 31st in 2025 (469), with the latter due to Jayden Daniels being injured.Conclusion: In my opening projections, I could be a little too bullish on McLaurin’s scoring upside, but his opportunity and chemistry should lead to a reasonable floor in his scoring. He checks the big-play box, with a chance to set a career high in targets. Based on his ADP in the high-stakes market, McLaurin is mispriced based on his previous resume and his expected 2026 opportunity. I’ll adjust his TDs down to seven in my next upside.
McMillan was the 15th-best wide receiver in his rookie season (70/1,014/7 on 122 targets), but he was drafted higher in some leagues last summer.Despite his success, he had only one impact game (33.00 PPR fantasy points), with a 5.9% impact ratio due to scoring more than 20.00 fantasy points in one game.McMillan scored between 10.00 and 20.00 fantasy points in 11 of his 15 starts.He checks the upside box in big plays (14.5 yards per catch) and scoring (Seven TDs).Question Marks:
His starting quarterback passed for fewer than 200 yards in 12 of his 17 games, which included a streak of seven consecutive matchups.Bryce Young passed for more than one touchdown in only seven contests (24 TDs on the year).McMillan has a weakness in his catch rate (57.4%)Conclusion: As a WR2 on most fantasy teams, McMillan has only a steady feel due to the lack of scoring upside of the Panthers’ offense. His rookie season shows that he can play in the NFL, and his natural progression should be up the wide receiver rankings. I like his price point much better this year, and McMillan checks the big-play and scoring boxes. In the end, many fantasy drafters will fade him due to his starting quarterback. I have a twinkle in my eye for him if he falls at the right price.
Collins has never played 17 games in a season. He missed two contests last year, five in 2024, two in 2023, and seven in 2022.He’s gained over 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive years, but with regression in receiving touchdowns (8, 7, and 6).Collins comes off a career high in targets (120). He’s gained 15.6 yards per catch across his last 42 games, highlighted by 57 plays gaining at least 20 yards (14 of those reached the 40-yard mark).Over the past three seasons, Collins ranks 12th (260.40), 23rd (210.60), and 8th (227.20) in PPR fantasy points. He averaged 5.2 catches for 82 yards and 0.52 touchdowns over this span (16.52 FPPG).Question Marks:
Houston has a top defense, and they would like to run the ball well to control the clock.C.J. Stroud has regression in passing yards (4,108, 3,727, and 3,041) and touchdowns (23, 20, and 19) over his second and third seasons in the NFL.In his rookie season, Stroud showed the ability to beat defenses in the deep passing game (66 completions of 20 yards or more, with nine gaining 40 yards or more). He has 81/16 occasions over his last 31 starts, leading to him gaining 7.1 yards per pass attempt.The Texans’ offensive line allowed only 31 sacks last year, but Houston continued to rank below the best teams in the NFL on completion rate (62.5%).His fantasy playoff schedule (JAC, @PHI, and @GB) has two cold-weather sites in late December and early January.Conclusion: Collins has a top-five wide receiver profile if he can stay on the field for a whole season, with more upside if he adds a few more scores. He brings size and big-play ability, and the Texans have enough offensive weapons to be a much better passing team. I like what Collins brings to the table, but he can lose the coin flip decision to some other wideouts who have a better health card rating.
For drafters looking to win overall championships, I don’t like his matchups in Weeks 16 and 17 due to potential weather concerns. In addition, the Eagles and Packers want to run the ball to slow down the clock.
The Saints came into 2025 with an outlook of having the worst offense in the NFL, weighted heavily with expected weakness at quarterback. Surprisingly, New Orleans finished sixth in passing attempts (591) and 10th in passing yards (4,027), but much lower in passing TDs (19 – 26th) and fantasy points (324.65 – 20th in 4-point passing touchdown formats).Olave helped fantasy teams win league and overall championships from Week 15 to Week 17 (6/85/1, 10/148/2, and 8/119/1).Over his final 11 starts (67/919/8), he averaged 18.78 PPR fantasy points per game and 9.3 targets.He’s gained over 1,000 yards three times over his four years in the NFL.Olave comes off career highs in catches (100), receiving yards (1,163), touchdowns (9), and targets (155).New Orleans is expected to extend his contract this summer.The Saints play @TB, ARI, and @ATL from Week 15 to Week 17 this season.Question Marks:
Olave was discounted in fantasy drafts in 2025 for two reasons: concussion concerns and expected quarterback play.He missed nine games in 2024 due to two concussions.His only missed game in 2025 was in Week 18 due to needing treatment for a blood clot.Conclusion: Over the past two seasons, Olave has landed on the injury report with shoulder, hamstring, ankle, hip, back, and concussion issues. He’s played through many injuries, which is a plus, but the length of his issues does paint a hint of a red flag, especially coming off a career season with a much higher fantasy price point. Olave tends to be a volume chain mover, but he can beat a defense over the top when a play breaks right for him.
The Saints’ quarterbacks must finish drives better in the red zone with passing touchdowns for Olave to have further growth in his profile. I can’t dismiss another 100-catch year, but his dark injury passenger will weigh on my ability to fight for him in drafts. The bottom line is Olave has upside talent, and fantasy drafters can never predict when an injury will happen. On the downside, another concern could crush his fantasy value.
Nabers was the sixth-best fantasy wide receiver in his rookie season (109/1,204/7 on 170 targets – 274.20 PPR fantasy points).The Giants threw the ball 591 times (9th) in 2025, compared to 526 (20th) last year.Jaxson Dart makes New York’s offense better, but it also increases their rushing opportunity. He averaged 30.3 pass attempts over 10 games from Week 5 to Week 18, minus an outlier matchup in Week 16 (13 passes).Nabers should be on the field in Week 1, but he may need a couple of games to get up to NFL speed. He’ll have almost 10 months of recovery time when the lights come on for the 2026 NFL season.He had a second surgery to remove scar tissue earlier in 2026.New York lacks any other trusted receiving options, which builds a strong case for Nabers to be active again this year.Question Marks:
Players coming off severe injuries tend to underachieve expectations the following season.Nabers hasn’t had glowing reports about his status for the start of 2026, but his news should become more positive in August.He battled toe and shoulder issues last summer, along with some dings in his rookie season – ankle, concussion, groin, hip, knee, and toe.Conclusion: Midsummer, Nabers has a more favorable ADP due to no clarity on when he will be ready for the 2026 football season. Reading between the lines, I expect him to be on the field for Week 1, meaning he is mispriced for his ceiling in late July. I’d much rather take a swing with him in the fourth round of fantasy drafts than chase his news up draft boards in September. My outlook/projections leave plenty of room for upside.
Wilson comes off a right knee injury that didn’t require surgery and led to him missing 10 games.He played well in four (7/95/1, 10/84/1, 6/82/1, and 6/71/1) of his first five games last year while playing with Justin Fields in four of those starts.Before last season, Wilson didn’t miss a game in the NFL across three years.He averaged 5.4 catches for 63 yards and 0.31 touchdowns over his first 58 NFL games (13.56 FPPG), painting him as a mid-tier WR2 in most fantasy seasons.Geno Smith won’t light the passing needle for fantasy drafters, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 100 catches for 1,156 yards and six touchdowns with him behind center for 17 games in 2024.Jets added offensive weapons in this year’s draft class, suggesting a much better offensive season.Question Marks:
Was Wilson's knee injury minor or a hint of a future ACL issue?At what point will the Jets switch to Cade Klubnik?Wilson has yet to show impact value in scoring touchdowns.Can Geno Smith lift his game high enough to create starting fantasy value for his top receiving options?Conclusion: In 2024, a top high-stakes drafter fought for Wilson with the ninth overall pick in many high dollar league, showing his trust in his ceiling. Unfortunately, he fell into a more consistent fantasy profile than an impact WR1. Wilson has stated that he likes his new offensive system, and his resume paints a 100-catch/150 target season. He scored 11 times over his last 24 matchups, suggesting a better outcome in this area this year, even with question marks at quarterback.
The high-stakes market has already set a WR1 price tag in the early draft season.The Bucs moved on from Mike Evans in the offseason, leaving a great WR1 opportunity for Egbuka if he is up to the task.Tampa Bay plans on using him closer to the line of scrimmage by lining him over the ball with added motion to create earlier wins in his pass patterns and more chances.Egbuka opened his rookie campaign with success over five games (4/67/1, 4/29/1, 6/85, 4/101/1, and 7/163/1), but limped home with bench stats in most weeks (38/493/1 over 12 games) and a lousy catch rate (42.7%).He scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy in 10 of his 17 starts last year, giving him a floor ratio of 23.5%.The Bucs have a favorable schedule from Week 15 to Week 17 (NO, @ATL, and LAR).Question Marks:
Egbuka must prove he can beat top press coverage.His hands let him down too many times last year when open for some easy catches.What is his next step: 80/1,000/7? If so, is that worthy of his current price point?Can Egbuka surpass Chris Godwin as Tampa’s volume wideout?Conclusion: Based on his 2026 ADP pricing in the high-stakes market, Egbuka looks poised to be a 100-catch wideout with enough big-play value (31.7% of his 63 catches last year gained 20 yards or more) to deliver a high consistency factor with improvement in his impact value. In home leagues, he should be considered a breakout player, especially if he has a much better price point in drafts. I believe in his direction, but I expect other drafters to beat me to him in 2026. His college resume shows a much better catch rate.
Brown escapes the rush dominate offenses of the Eagles, which relied on heavy ground scoring inside the 10-yards line by their quarterback and top running back over the past few seasons.He ranked 5th (291.60), 20th (216.90), and 12th (220.30) in PPR scoring over the past three seasons while missing four games in 2024 and two in 2025.Brown has gained over 1,000 receiving yards six times in his seven years in the NFL, with his only failure (63/869/5) being due to four missed starts.He posted a floor of seven touchdowns six times.Last year, Philadelphia threw the ball 497 times, only five fewer than New England (502).Drake Maye led the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.9) and completion rate (72.0%) last year, without having a true impact receiver.Question Marks:
Will New England give Brown a high-volume target opportunity in 2026?In his third year in the NFL, will the Patriots increase their passing opportunity by at least 10%Will Drake Maye give Brown chase when facing jump ball situations?Brown scored under 5.0 fantasy points in three games last year, highlighted by dull stats across his first seven matchups (31/408/3 on 54 targets).New England faces @KC, @NYJ, and DEN from Week 15 to Week 17?Conclusion: Stefon Diggs had 85 catches for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns last year, but he was only on the field for WR3 snaps. Does his floor, added to Brown’s ability to make big plays and score, paint an impact WR1 season coming? All the signs point to Brown being a top-10 wideout in 2026, except for my early projections. They will certainly be addressed in my next version. I have Brown mispriced, and I’m not proud of it. Next step: 90+ catches with double-digit scores.
Williams ranked 10th in PPR fantasy points (220.70) in 2025, up from 21st (213.50) in 2024.Despite his success over the past two years, early drafters rank Williams as an early WR3 in 2026.The Lions gave Williams a lower-than-expected opportunity across his first seven games last season (4/23, 2/108/1, 2/43, 2/40, 1/9, 6/66/1, and 0/0), leading to only 17 catches for 290 yards and two scores on 28 targets.Over his final 10 starts, Williams scored over 15.00 fantasy points in six games (4/66/1, 6/119/1, 4/97/1, 7/139/1, 7/103, and 7/134/1) while averaging 7.2 targets.Question Marks:
The Lions failed to get Williams the ball in Week 7 (no targets) and Week 12 (three targets), which tends to crush fantasy lineups.He had five targets or fewer in seven games.Will Detroit give Williams a more consistent week-to-week opportunity in 2026?Does Sam LaPorta regain his rookie form? If so, does that push Williams to the Lions’ fourth offensive weapon behind Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown?Conclusion: For fantasy teams looking for an edge at WR4, Williams brings that explosive feel for the drafters who want to be wide receiver deep out of the gate. His skill set paints a higher profile than his overall opportunity, but early drafters are punishing him based on his bad days in 2025. His floor has been set over the past two years (58/1,062/8 and 65/1,129/7 with two missed games in 2024), leaving a gap to be an 80-catch wideout this year. I’m buying at his current ADP in the NFFC.
Adams lacked timing and chemistry with Matthew Sattford in his first season with the Rams, highlighted by his much weaker catch rate (52.6% - 64.5% from 2016 to 2024).He only had three double-digit target games (13, 11, and 13).From Week 7 to Week 13, Adams scored in six consecutive matchups (11 total TDs), allowing him to offset his lower totals in catches (26) and receiving yards (293).He’ll start 2026 at age 33.Adams ranked 15th all-time in touchdowns (117), with Larry Fitzgerald (121), Marvin Harrison (128), and Chris Carter (131) within reach if he plays at least two more years.Question Marks:
With the Rams up his usage increase in 2026? He was on pace for 138 targets if Adams didn’t miss three games.When will Father Time catch up to him?Will Adams go out as Super Bowl Champion?He missed three games in December with a hamstring issue.Conclusion: The end of Adams’s career is visible on the horizon, but he still gets open and scores touchdowns. His second-fiddle opportunity caps his ceiling, but having him on the field allowed the Rams’ tight ends (103/1/128/17) to pick apart defenses in 2025. I rode Adams when given a chance last year, and his score edge can invite some impact games. Let’s go with a neutral outlook and buy him when he slides in drafts.
The loss of AJ Brown clears a WR1 opportunity for Smith.He ranked 19th (228.60), 28th (199.60), and 20th (201.80) in PPR scoring over the past three seasons, compared to 5th (291.60), 20th (216.90), and 12th (220.30) by Brown.Smith has gained over 1,000 receiving yards in four consecutive seasons (95/1,186/7, 81/1,066/7, 84/1,023/9, and 77/1,008/4), with his 2024 season (four missed games) including his playoff stats (16/190/1).The Eagles ranked 24th in pass attempts (497) and 28th in completions (318).Philadelphia has an unproven WR2, along with questionable wide receiver depth, suggesting a career high in targets for Smith.Question Marks:
Smith scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in 10 games last year, leading to an unfavorable floor (29.4%) and impact (11.8%) ratios. Six of his failing outcomes came over his final eight starts.He only had one impact game (9/183/1) in 2025, and that came against the top wide receiver defense (MIN – 149/1,970/8 on 243 targets).Will defenses be able to take him away with A.J. Brown no longer drawing WR1 coverage?Conclusion: Barring an injury, Smith without a doubt should have a top-15 wide receiver opportunity. His dismal finish to last season will keep some drafters off his scent. Over his last 63 games, he averaged 5.1 catches for 65 yards and 0.41 touchdowns, adding up to 14.08 PPR fantasy points per game. Smith can’t help but have a 10% increase in his fantasy value in 2026. The Eagles’ new offensive coordinator should attack more in the deep passing game.
Moore slipped into a great opportunity in the Bills’ offense. They’ve lacked a true WR1 since Stefon Diggs in 2023.Buffalo’s wide receivers (180/2,107/11 on 270 targets) ranked 22nd in PPR fantasy points last season (456.70), down from 19th in 2024 (210,2,519/16 on 299 targets).Moore comes off his worst season (50/761/7) across his eight years in the NFL.In 2023, with Justin Fields at quarterback, he was the sixth-best wide receiver (96/1,385/9 on 136 targets), leading to 287.50 PPR fantasy points. He ranked 16th in 2024 (98/1,041/6 on 140 targets)Moore has played through some injuries, but he hasn’t missed a game over the past four seasons.He can work the short areas of the field and make big plays (18.1 YPC in 2020, 14.1 in 2022, and 14.2 in 2023).Question Marks:
Over the past two seasons, Buffalo has become more of a running team, highlighted by their run/pass splits (2024 – 491/520 and 2025 – 547/495).Last year, Buffalo scored 30 rushing touchdowns, compared to 29 passing touchdowns.Conclusion: Investing in a piece of a high-scoring offense is never a bad idea in fantasy football. Josh Allen is the consensus number one quarterback, yet his first receiving option (Moore) draws a 4/5 turn ADP. For fantasy teams looking for consistency and potential explosiveness, Moore checks these boxes in 2026. He’s gained over 950 combined yards in six of his eight years in the NFL, playing for the Panthers and Bears.
Evans also falls in the Davante Adams bucket for fantasy drafters. He’ll turn 33 in August. Does he have one more good season left in him?The 49ers should have a better foundation of offensive players, and I like Brock Purdy much more than Baker Mayfield.Evans saw his streak of over 1,000 yards receiving end last year, leading to his worst stats (30/368/3 on 62 targets) of his 12-year career.He missed 14 games in 2025 due to a hamstring injury and a broken collarbone.Evans has 108 career touchdowns, ranking him 10th in receiving touchdowns all-time. He currently sits 21st in receiving yards (13,052).Over his first 168 games, Evans averaged 5.1 catches for 76 yards and 0.63 touchdowns (16.45 PPR fantasy points per game).Question Marks:
San Francisco’s 2026 season could derail or change quickly if any of the key offensive players have injuries.Over the past two years, Brock Purdy missed 10 games. Christian McCaffrey has been on the sidelines for 13 matchups. George Kittle sat out eight contests.Conclusion: Based on Evans' 2026 price point, he only needs about 60 catches for 700 yards and eight touchdowns to be in range of a backend WR2 in PPR formats. His opportunity and previous resume suggest that Evans beats my floor threshold. He ranked 15th in PPR points (240.40) in 2024. For the senior shoppers with short memories, a name is a name, and Evans plays in a favorable offense for his skill set.
McConkey never hit his expected WR1 stride in his second season with the Chargers.Other than a six-game stretch (35/457/4 on 53 targets), he was a fantasy bust in 2025.He scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in nine of his 16 starts, with no impact games. His only edge came in three matchups (7/100/1, 6/88/1, and 4/107/1).Los Angeles gave him six targets or fewer across his final seven contests (18/190/2 on 30 targets).Question Marks:
The Chargers’ offensive line allowed 60 sacks last year.Justin Herbert was a beaten man over his final eight games (only nine touchdowns with a weaker completion rate – 63.8%).Los Angeles brought in a new offensive coordinator.The Chargers have receiving depth, which could lead to their targets being spread out over more options.Much of the fantasy market expects Omarion Hampton to be more active in the passing game in 2026.Conclusion: There’s something to be said for chasing last year’s bum. McConkey (82/1,149/7) was the 14th-ranked wideout in PPR formats (240.90 fantasy points) in 2024, suggesting progression rather than regression last year. He had only six fewer targets (106 – 112 in 2024), so his opportunity wasn’t the reason for his failure. For now, McConkey should be treated as an 80/1,050/7 player until he proves himself to be worthy of WR1 status. Let’s go with a neutral player with upside that I would rather roster at a discount.
Higgins scored 21 touchdowns across his last 27 games.He’s never had over 110 targets in a season.Last year, Higgins played nine games with Joe Burrow, but scored on 18.6% of his catches.His ceiling looked more promising in 2021 (74/1,091/6) and 2022 (74/1,029/7) while missing four combined games.Higgins scored over 20.00 PPR fantasy points in three games (6/96/1, 7/121/2, and 6/92/2), but was a liability in five other contests (3/33, 1/15, 3/32, 5/31, and 4/59).In 2024, he posted three impact games (9/83/2, 9/148/1, and 11/131/3).Joe Burrow has been a top quarterback in passing touchdowns three times over the past five years (34, 35, and 43), with his two failures tied to missed games due to injuries.Cinci threw the ball 652 and 640 times over the past two seasons (most in the NFL). Their wideouts ranked first (33) and third (23) in receiving touchdowns over their past two seasons.Question Marks:
Over his last five seasons, Higgins missed 16 games.In his career, he posted a zero in PPR fantasy points five times in games with some snaps. Higgins scored fewer than five fantasy points 11 other times in his career.Conclusion: At age 27, the fantasy market is still waiting for Higgins to post a difference-maker season by catching 80+ balls with over 1,200 yards receiving and double-digit touchdowns. He checks all of those boxes in his potential, and Higgins plays in the right offense with the winning quarterback.
Unfortunately, Cincinnati’s top players can never stay on the field long enough to rank with some of the best quarterback/wide receiver combos in the history of the NFL. Higgins is priced fairly this year while continuing to carry a risk/reward profile.
Harrison was expected to be a high-volume catch receiver with an advantage in receiving yards and touchdowns, highlighted by his final two seasons at Ohio State (77/1,295/14 and 67/1,237/15).Did Michael Wilson become the player the fantasy market expected Harrison to be in 2025?His catch rate was 53.4% in his rookie season, with minimal growth last year (56.1%).He missed out on a ton of catches down the stretch last season due to him, in essence, missing seven of the Cardinals' final eight matchups with heel/foot issues.Arizona led the NFL in pass attempts (649).Question Marks:
Will Harrison be the Cardinals’ third option in the passing game in 2026 behind Trey McBride and Michael Wilson?Does a new stud running back and a change in coaching staff lead to a sharp decline in pass attempts?The next step in his development begins by securing more of his targets.Will Arizona have a sharp decline in pass attempts in 2026?Conclusion: At this point, Harrison doesn’t feel like an explosive 80-catch wide receiver with double-digit scoring upside. He brings talent, pedigree, and a winning college resume to the table, while ranking 30th in PPR scoring (197.50) in his rookie season. His 2026 price point falls in a range with his floor, but the pieces to the Cardinals’ offense have changed a lot from last season. ADP player to follow, as he should outperform most WR3 options with a full season of games.
Waddle peaked in 2022 (75/1,356/8 on 117 targets – 8th in PPR fantasy points) in his second year with Miami.He regained his big-play ability (14.2 YPC) last season, helped by Tyreek Hill getting injured.Miami ranked 29th in quarterback fantasy points (310.60 – 6-point passing TDs in the NFFC) last season, compared to 14th by Denver (412.05).Waddle came to the NFL with some qualities in the realm of Tyreek Hill.He scored under 10.00 PPR fantasy points seven times in 2025.Surprisingly, Bo Nix led the NFL in pass attempts (612) last year.Question Marks:
Does Waddle become the Broncos’ WR1 in 2026 at the expense of Courtland Sutton?Will Troy Franklin draw enough targets away from Denver’s top two wideouts to lower their ceiling?Waddle missed six games over the past three seasons.Conclusion: Waddle should be an excellent fit for the Broncos’ offense. He helps Denver become more explosive in the passing game, while also drawing some coverage away from Courtland Sutton and potentially a safety from run support on some plays. With 17 starts, 80 catches for 1,100 yards with seven touchdowns seems like a reasonable floor, which is about one game higher than my early projections.
Over the past two seasons, Metcalf had regression in his targets (119, 108, and 99) due to missing four combined games.He comes off a six-year low in catches (59) and receiving yards (850).Earlier in his career, Metcalf was profiled as high scoring wideout (22 touchdowns) over 33 starts in 2020 and 2021.He finished 26th in PPR scoring (187.20) in a passing offense that ranked 24th in fantasy points (350.30) in NFFC scoring.A change in coaching staff should lead to more balls in the air for Pittsburgh’s offense in 2026.Question Marks:
Does Aaron Rodgers have one more competitive season left in his right arm?The Steelers brought in Michael Pittman to compete for targets.Will Pittsburgh push higher in the quarterback pass attempt rankings (550 in 2026 – 26th)?Conclusion: Each year in fantasy football, a couple of veteran wideouts are mispriced after a down season. Metcalf falls into that category in 2026. He brings big-play ability and scoring upside, but Pittsburgh gave him five targets or fewer in seven of his 16 starts. I have him priced as a WR2 in PPR formats, compared to a borderline backend WR3 in the high-stakes market. Metcalf gains extra value for me in Best Ball formats.
In one easy season, Thomas went from a difference-maker, rookie, first-round stud (87/1,282/10 on 133 targets) to a bust (48/707/2 on 91 targets).Thomas battled wrist, shoulder, and ankle issues last year, resulting in a sharp decline in his play and catch rate (52.7% - 65.4% in 2024).He scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in nine games while missing three games midseason.His only winning day came in Week 6 (8/90/1).Thomas scored over 15.00 PPR fantasy points in 10 of his 17 starts in his rookie season, highlighted by a dynamic run over his final four games (10/105/2, 9/132/1, 7/91/1, and 7/103).Jacksonville gave him double-digit targets in his final six games (10, 12, 14, 13, 10, and 11) in 2024.Question Marks:
The Jaguars’ wide receiving corps is much better than two years ago.The fantasy market is coin-tossing Thomas and Parker Washington.Will the Jaguars repeat their growth in offense in 2026?Conclusion: The fantasy market will debate whether Thomas is a fact or a fiction story this draft season. He brings size and speed to the receiving table, but his key component this year is opportunity. I expect his targets to rebound in 2026. For Thomas to reach WR2 status, he probably needs 120 balls thrown his way with a correction in his catch rate. Right kind of swing, but his upside ride may have more peaks and valleys this season until the Jaguars’ wide receiver rotation tightens up.
The Colts backed up the Brinks truck and dumped $114 million, with $84 million being guaranteed. In the crazy NFL, the Falcons gave Bijan Robinson a three-year extension for $75 million ($51 million guaranteed). So in what world is an unproven deep threat worth more than a stud front-line running back?Pierce had ankle surgery in March, but he remains on the PUP list in early August.He comes off a career high in catches (47) and receiving yards (1,003) with weakness in his catch rate (56.0%).Will the Colts give Pierce more catches close to the line of scrimmage with Michael Pittman removed from Indy’s passing equation?Question Marks:
Pierce scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in eight of his 17 starts last year.Can Indy repeat their high-scoring rate (32 points per game) over the first 10 games in 2025 with Daniel Jones behind center?As a WR3 option, Pierce may be challenging to time, creating roster management mistakes.Conclusion: Pierce can make big scoring plays, and he has had WR2 snaps for the Colts over the past three seasons. He finished last year ranked 28th in PPR scoring (183.30) despite catching only 47 balls. Despite his expected opportunity and my bullish projections, Pierce has a WR4 feel due to the weakness in his consistency factor. Unfortunately, there are more proven wide receivers on the board where he’s being selected.
Downs brings chain mover profile to the Colts’ offense this year.He’ll compete with Tyler Warren for many of the targets vacated by the loss of Michael Pittman.Over his first 47 games in the NFL, Downs averaged 4.2 catches for 46 yards and 0.23 touchdowns (10.18 PPR fantasy points per game or 173.06 over 17 starts).Last year, 35 wide receivers scored more than 170.00 PPR fantasy points.He’s missed four games across his three seasons in the NFL.Downs ranked 35th in PRR scoring (183.60) in 2024.Question Marks:
Downs doesn’t appear to have enough scoring juice to be a winning player as a fantasy WR3.His 5/50 skill set with some TDs makes more sense as an injury or bye-week cover.Conclusion: With a 10% increase in opportunity and 17 starts, Downs has a chance to beat market expectations in fantasy leagues. He’s scored over 20.00 fantasy points only three times (5/125/1, 8/82/1, and 4/122/1). I expect him to be a value in drafts and beat most fantasy sites’ projections.
Sutton was the 13th-best wide receiver in PPR formats (219.70) last year (11th in 2024 – 241.60).His ADP has been beaten this year due to the Broncos adding Jaylen Waddle to their roster.Over his last 50 games, Sutton scored 25 touchdowns.He’s gained over 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons with Bo Nix behind center.His 2025 floor ratio (47.1%) ranked in the top 10 for wide receivers.Sutton missed three games over the past three years.Question Marks:
He turns 31 in October, with more competitive for targets.Sutton hasn’t scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in a game over the past four years.Denver has a top defense, which can lead to them playing from the lead in many games in the second half.Conclusion: Sutton’s resume will command the football, and the presence of Jaylen Waddle should create more favorable matchups in coverage. His floor, even with some regression, is high enough to beat his ADP and expected value in the high-stakes market. Think of him as a steady player with enough scoring to help his consistency factor.
Last year, the Steelers ranked 28th in wide receiver production (136/1,716/13 on 232 targets), with DK Metcalf accounting for 48.5% of their PPR fantasy points (385.60).Pittman has a floor of 69 catches over the past five seasons, while averaging 16.4 games per year.He only has 27 touchdowns across 95 games (28.4% scoring rate).Most of his catches are closer to the line of scrimmage (10.8 YPC in his career).Pittman has averaged 7.5 targets per game in his career.Across his first nine starts (52/561/6 on 68 targets), he was on pace to rank between 6th and 8th in PPR fantasy points per game (16.01).Question Marks:
Last year, he scored under 10.00 PPR fantasy points in eight of his 17 starts, with five landing in the bust category (2/20, 2/19, 1/13, 2/16, and 2/11).Pittman gave away his early-season gains over his final eight starts (28/224/1 on 43 targets – 7.034 PPR fantasy points per game) due to the Colts playing without Daniel Jones.Does the Steelers’ passing game have enough volume to support two top 24 wide receivers?Conclusion: Pittman’s fade down the stretch wasn’t his fault. He played well above his career ADP for half of last year when Indianapolis had one of the best offenses in the league. His low production across the back eight matchups, paired with the Steelers lacking a competitive punch at wide receiver in 2025, has created a buying opportunity for Pittsburgh’s new wideout. He should be treated as a top 30 wide receiver this draft season, and I view him as a steal if his price continues to sit in the WR4 area. Pittman should lead the Steelers in targets in 2026.
After bringing a running back catch profile (8.2 YPC) to the wide receiver position over his first three years with the Giants, Robinson stepped into a much more trusted wide receiver position category in 2025.He gained 11.0 yards per catch, thanks to gaining 40 receiving yards or more twice (14 catches of 20 yards or more – only 11 across his first 38 NFL games).Robinson took advantage of the injury to Malik Nabers, resulting in career highs in receiving yards (1,014) and touchdowns (4).He has caught over 90 passes in back-to-back seasons, with 140 targets each year.Robinson finished 14th in PPR scoring (217.90), with four highlight games (8/142/1, 6/84/1, 9/156/1, and 11/113).Question Marks:
Tennessee had the worst fantasy passing offense in the NFL in 2025 (279.96 NFFC fantasy points).The Titans’ wideouts caught 157 passes for 1,821 yards and nine touchdowns on 296 targets in Cam Ward’s rookie season.They added Carnell Tate with the fourth overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, creating more competition for WR1 targets.Tennessee’s top two wideouts last year had 48 and 41 catches.Conclusion: The Titans threw the ball 570 times (11th) last year due to game score. Their passing opportunity should be high enough for Robinson to receive at least 120 targets in 2026. He brings a chain mover profile with low scoring upside. I have him rated to score just over 200.00 PPR fantasy points, which would have ranked 22nd in 2025, 28th in 2024, and 34th in 2023.
Nice steady player, but his dull ceiling in most games can lead to some lineup decision mistakes, especially if Tennessee and Cam Ward don’t improve dramatically on the offensive side of the ball.
The Packers paid him $110 million in June with $31 million in guaranteed money.Last year, Watson had six targets or fewer in eight of his 11 starts.He’s averaging 17.0 yards per catch in his career (17.5 in 2025).His best fantasy value came in his rookie season (41/691/9 across 66 targets and seven carries).35.9% of his last 64 catches have gained 20 yards or more.Watson has 22 career touchdowns over his 48 games.Question Marks:
Over four seasons in the NFL, Watson has missed 19 out of a possible 68 games (27.9%) due to hamstring (3X), concussion, hip, ankle, and a torn ACL in his right knee.In his career, Watson has averaged 4.7 targets per game.Does his ceiling outweigh his injury risk?Green Bay only passed the ball 489 times (28th) last season.Conclusion: For fantasy game managers willing to gamble, Watson checks the winning boxes in big plays and scoring. Unfortunately, his injury risk, paired with his boom-or-bust profile (25 games with under 10.00 fantasy points and nine games with more than 20.00 fantasy points), could make him challenging to time for the antsy lineup decisions.
I like his ceiling and overall skill set, but I would much rather roster Watson as an upside WR4 than fight for him as a borderline WR2 this draft season.
Odunze falls into last year’s bum category due to him battling heel, ankle, and foot injuries, with the latter costing him five games.The fantasy market in 2025 viewed him as having a WR1 ceiling.He played the WR1 part across his first four starts (6/37/1, 7/128/2, 3/62/1, and 4/69/1) last season while receiving 35 combined targets.Crushed fantasy teams in six matchups (2/32, 2/31, 0/0, 2/41, 3/53, and 2/8), but shined two more times (7/114 and 6/86/1) when Chicago gave him winning targets (10 and 10).Odunze averaged 5.9 targets in his rookie season. His passing-catching opportunity rose to 7.5 per game in 2025.Question Marks:
Underwhelming catch rate each year in the NFL (2024 – 53.5% and 2025 – 48.9%).His starting quarterback is improving but continues to have accuracy concerns (58.1% completion rate in 2025).His foot injuring was lingering this spring, with hints that it could be a factor this year. Odunze stated that his foot felt great in late July per an ESPN report.Will Odunze be the first, second, or third option in the Bears’ passing game in 2026?Conclusion: The shine of Odunze’s ceiling is no longer there for some fantasy drafters, but he does bring size to the wide receiver table. His scoring projects to be an asset, and Odunze can make big plays. The high-stakes market projects him to be a mid-tier WR2. At the same time, I have him as a coin toss to beat Luther Burden in overall wide receiver production, with both losing out to Colston Loveland in targets and in fantasy value.
At the very least, Odunze has the tools and opportunity to beat his ADP and my early projections by a wide margin. Right kind of gamble, but most fantasy drafters will need to decide which young Bears’ receiving option they like the best in 2026. I planted my flag in the Loveland camp, meaning draft flow and ADP will determine if I land Odunze this draft season.
In his rookie season, Burden posted an elite catch rate (78.3%), but he averaged only four targets per game due to his WR4 opportunity in snaps (37.5%).The Bears never had him on the field for more than 71% of their snaps in any matchup, with only two other matchups having counts higher than 60% (62% and 63%).Burden missed two games with a concussion and ankle issues.Flashed an elite ceiling in Week 17 (8/138/1), with his second-best rookie game coming in Week 3 (3/101/1) despite receiving on three targets and being in the field for 17 plays (17% snap count).Burden has been a buzz player this summer, and his 2026 draft momentum started to spike when DJ Moore was traded to the Bills.Brings elite speed to Chicago’s passing game, with the tools to work the short areas of the field.Question Marks:
Priced as a WR2 in the high-stakes market, requiring him to score over 225.00 PPR fantasy points (75/1,000/7 type outcome).Burden has an Alpha mentality, which could lead to some plays off when the passing game doesn’t flow to him due to matchup or coverage.The Bears’ wide receivers had 190 catches for 2,420 yards and 18 touchdowns on 314 targets in 2025.How much will Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland eat into his targets?Conclusion: Based on his snap count rise alone, Burden should see his rookie production (47/652/2 on 60 targets) rise by a minimum of 50%, which puts him well within range of beating his NFFC ranking (WR21) if his scoring can reach the seven range. Over his final two seasons at Missouri, he caught 72.8% of his targets with 15 touchdowns across 25 games.
The bottom line with Burden is that he gets open and catches the ball. His big-play ability paired with a reasonable floor in scoring puts him in the breakout wide receiver category this summer, especially in home-style leagues where his price point should be more favorable. The sharps will fight for him in drafts, which could lead to him falling in a more difficult decision range in the high-stakes market. My next projection update will reflect my second-level research on his outlook later today (8/6).
Over the past week, I was doing some reflection on last year’s projection with SportsHack. My most over-projected offense was the Minnesota Vikings. Offensive line issues and sketchy quarterback play led to their top wide receivers underachieving by a wide margin.[SportsHack]Addison opened 2025 with a three-game suspension.He flashed over his first four starts (4/114, 5/41/1, 9/128, and 3/261) with Carson Wentz behind center.Over his final 11 starts (24/327/2 on 53 targets), Addison scored under 10.00 PPR fantasy points in seven matchups, with a peak score of 12.50 fantasy points when he scored a 65-yard run.His catch rate (45/3%) was a disaster down the stretch.Question Marks:
How much does Kyler Murray improve the Vikings’ passing game?Will Minnesota run more due to having a more mobile starting quarterback?Can Jauan Jennings pass Addison on Minnesota’s wide receiver depth chart?Conclusion: Over his three years in the NFL, Addison hasn’t made good decisions off the field, but he has excelled in his limited time with the Vikings. Over his first 32 games, Addison scored 20 times while averaging 13.4 yards per catch (28 receptions of 20 yards or more with nine reaching the 40-yard mark). He checks the value box in two areas. Unfortunately, his opportunity this year looks more cloudy.
In the end, the Vikings need to throw more for him to regain WR2 status, and Kyler Murray must regain his lost value in the deep passing game. Addison has a perfect WR4 profile in 2026 (Top 24 wide receiver twice, big-game upside, and touchdowns are part of his NFL resume).
Godwin missed 18 games over the past two seasons due to a dislocated and fractured fibula.Fast, active start to his 2024 season (50/578/5 on 62 targets), highlighted by his catch rate (80.6%). He was on pace to set career highs in most of his offensive categories in an offense that played at an elite level all year.He struggled to find his rhythm in 2025, leading to one playable game (7/108/1) and eight outcomes with 11.00 PPR fantasy points or fewer.Godwin has gained over 1,000 receiving yards four times) with two other years (2020 and 2024) on pace but derailed by injuries.He’s scored only 10 touches across his last 62 games.Question Marks:
The Buccaneers plan to use Emeka Egbuka closer to the line of scrimmage. Does that steal some of Godwin’s possession opportunities? Or will it improve his ability to score?Tampa does have improved receiving depth, with the loss of Mike Evans creating a different flow to their passing game.Godwin starts 2026 at age 30.Conclusion: His NFL wide receiving body of work paints a proven floor if Godwin can stay healthy for 17 games. His WR4 profile may not move the needle for some fantasy drafters, but his stats over his last 104 games (5.6 catches for 69 yards and 0.40 touchdowns per matchup – 14.92 PPR fantasy points per game) scream WR2. Tampa thought enough about his ceiling to pay him $66 million for three years in 2025.
At the very least, Godwin’s value profile should deliver a WR3 outcome in PPR formats. His best trait should be consistency over impact value, which works much better in this range of fantasy drafts.
Reed’s 2025 season was setup to fail after suffering Jones’ fracture in his left foot in August, which he intended to play through.A broken collarbone in Week 2 pushed him to the injured reserve for 10 games but also helped his foot heal after surgery.Decent Week 1 (3/45/1), but Reed never fired across his final six games (4/53, 5/55, 3/35, 4/41, rest game, and 4/56/1) while averaging 4.8 targets.Upper WR3 outcomes in PPR fantasy points in 2023 (217.40) and 2024 (198.50), but his bust games (under 10.00 fantasy points – 10) offset his best days (4/37/2, 5/84/1, 4/92/1, 8/65/1, 6/89/2, 4/171/2, and 7/139/1).Reed was at his best over six games (27/552/4) in 2024, but lost his way over his final 12 starts (32/514/3 on 45 targets), partly due to Green Bay shifting more to the run game.The Packers will give him rushing carries (34/310/3 in his career), giving him some hidden value.Question Marks:
Only 67 targets across his last 19 games (3.5 per game). His catch rate has been high over the past two years (73.3% and 86.3%), but why wasn’t Reed getting more chances?Green Bay gave him over 60% of their WR snaps in only three matchups (64%, 65%, and 68%).Is he the Packers’ WR1, WR2, or WR3?Conclusion: The outlines of Green Bay's receiving corps seem pretty straightforward in 2025. They want to get Tucker Kraft involved as much as possible; Christian Watson is the explosive deep threat; and Matthew Golden develops into a combination vertical option with playmaking value close to the line of scrimmage. This leaves Reed as the chain mover who needs increased targets to pay his fantasy bills.
His first two seasons in the NFL are above his 2026 draft price point. I view Reed as value as a backend WR4, but he must regain his 2023 floor ratio (47.1% - 23.5% in 2024) to become a more trusted flex option.
A dislocated right shoulder in Week 1 ended up being a torn labrum (surgery after the season), leaving drafters wondering what Worthy would have done in his sophomore campaign.He scored under 11.50 PPR fantasy points in any game in 2025, while playing three games without Patrick Mahomes.Worthy had a stud over the Chiefs’ final seven games (40/535/6 on 52 targets and 11 carries), leading to him averaging 18.50 PPR fantasy points per game.Kansas City has given him over eight targets in only four of his possible 31 starts.Question Marks:
An injury in early August (sprained right shoulder) puts Worthy in a draft holding pattern for risk-averse drafters.Will the Chiefs’ offense regain this previous form with Patrick Mahomes coming off a significant injury and Travis Kelce down the home stretch of his career?Conclusion: The Chiefs’ passing game will be discounted in 2026 for various reasons. Kansas City struggled to get him in space early in his rookie season, making Worthy more of a gimmick player with the ability to beat defenses over the top. The foundation of his skill set didn’t develop last year due to his shoulder injury, leaving the fantasy market in a quandary about his ceiling.
I respect his talent and potential fantasy value, and his injury risk is priced in his early ADP. Right kind of value player and offense to invest in, but 2 + 2 may not equal 4 in Worthy’s 2026 fantasy equation. Must follow in August, and I would rather buy at a discount than fight for him on draft day.
The fantasy market watched Wilson turn into the player the Cardinals thought Marvin Harrison would develop into late last season.He kicked in the fantasy door off the waiver wire across his final eight starts (15/185, 10/118, 3/36, 11/142/2, 5/54/1, 2/52/1, 5/89/1, and 6/99/1), thanks to averaging 11 targets a game.Arizona led the NFL in pass attempts (649) last year.Over his first eight matchups, the Cardinals gave him only 31 targets (3.9 per game), leading to only 18 catches for 197 yards and one score.Question Marks:
Has Wilson jumped Marvin Harrison in the wide receiver target rotation?Will a new coaching staff and more competitive games lead to a sharp decline in pass attempts for Arizona?If/when the Cardinals turn to Carson Beck, how does that affect Arizona’s passing game and receiving production?Does a new stud running back improve this scoring chances for the Cardinals this year?Conclusion: Trust was a big part of Wilson's success last year after Marvin Harrison went down with an injury. Jacoby Brissett allowed their new rising receiving to make plays in jump-ball situations, along with feeding him on many passes when open.
The length of his success suggests that Wilson is a much better player than the Cardinals utilized over the first two and a half years of his career. Despite his direction and his newly painted ceiling, a healthy Harrison will command targets. I’m a believer, but at what cost? A 60/800/6 season pays his backend WR3 bills.
Hit a career-high across the board in 2024 (87 catches, 1,027 yards, and 129 targets) despite missing two games, showing Meyers can still produce at a high volume when given the opportunity.Proven track record of earning target volume: the Raiders fed him 9+ looks in 10 of his final 15 starts in 2024.Found the end zone consistently late in two seasons — three straight TD games to close 2022, and a strong 3-TD stretch (42/496/3) after landing in Jacksonville in 2024.Remarkably consistent yardage floor across his last five seasons (866, 804, 807, 1,027, and 835 yards), with a peak of 10 touchdowns in 2023.Meyers had more of a bust feel last year (nine games with fewer than 10.00 PPR fantasy points. His only edge game (6/93/1) came in Week 13.Question Marks:
The wide receiver structure for the Jaguars puts him in a WR3 role in their offense, which may not support his recent results.Meyers scored only seven times across his last 31 contests.For Jacksonville, Meyers averaged 11.18 PPR fantasy points over 10 matchups.Conclusion: Like a few wideouts in the WR3 and WR4 grouping, Meyers brings a steady foundation fantasy skill set with a much better floor than ceiling. He goes from a WR1 opportunity with the Raiders and Patriots over the past few years to lowest ceiling player among their top four wideouts. My projections match his current price point in the high-stakes market, leaving both areas thinking they want a higher-impact player with the WR4 decision.
Elite speed profile (4.40) with polished footwork that lets him win off the line versus press coverage — the athletic tools for a big-play role are legitimate.Set career highs across the board in his most recent season (57 catches, 696 yards, and five touchdowns on 92 targets), plus added rushing work (11/51), showing an expanding role and increased usage.Explosive play-making ability shows up in flashes — a 58-yard touchdown against Kansas City and an 8/149/3 outing in Week 3 demonstrate a real weekly ceiling when things click.Strong yards-per-reception marks throughout his career (17.4 YPR as a rookie) point to a big-play skill set that can outkick his target volume.Question Marks:
Wildly inconsistent week-to-week, Tucker scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in 10 of his final 11 starts in 2025, meaning most of his fantasy value comes from a small handful of explosive games.Hands and contested-catch ability are a concern — tight coverage exposes inconsistency, which limits his floor and reliability as a target.Size (5'9" and 180 lbs) may cap his role as anything more than a big-play complementary piece rather than a true high-volume WR1/WR2, especially in contested or red-zone situations.Conclusion: Tucker is priced as a free deep sleeper swing. A change at quarterback to Fernando Mendoza and an improved offense may offer a longer passing window, giving him sneaky value relative to his draft cost. I’m more bullish about him than the high-stakes market.
Steady year-over-year improvement in touchdown production, going from 2 (rookie year) to 8 in both 2024 and 2025, showing Johnston’s carved out a real role in the red zone/scoring department.Career-high 14.4 yards per catch in 2025 highlights growing big-play explosiveness, complementing several standout games (5/79/2, 8/98/1, and 4/104/1).Closed 2024 on a major hot streak, including a dominant 13-catch, 186-yard, 14-target Week 18 finale, showing his ceiling when featured heavily in the offense.Consistent WR2 snap share in the 62-65% range across two seasons gives him a stable role and opportunity floor to build on.Priced as a mid-tier WR4 despite finishing 34th (172.40 PPR fantasy points) at the position in 2025, offering value relative to his usage and upside if he takes another step forward.Question Marks:
Catch rate has remained below 61% in every season (56.7%, 60.4%, and 60.7%), limiting his overall ceiling.Boom-or-bust profile is a real risk — multiple empty/no-catch games each season (two no-catch games plus two other duds in 2025) can sink lineups on any given week.Target competition looms larger in 2026 with the Chargers likely to feed their tight ends more and Tre' Harris in line for a bigger role, potentially capping Johnston's target share.Conclusion: Johnston is another player who brings big-play and scoring upside to fantasy teams, but he’s missed five games across the past two years. His steady overall fantasy feel puts him more in the WR4 category for some fantasy drafters, with his peaks and valleys inviting some mistakes in lineup decisions. Adding back his missed time, his profile paints a stronger WR3 floor. Johnston will outperform his ADP with modest improvements in the Chargers’ pass blocking and him suiting up for 17 weeks.
Higgins has the ideal size/speed combination (6'4", 215 lbs, 4.47 forty), giving him a mismatch profile, drawing a favorable Michael Pittman-type comparison as a reliable, size-based weapon.He showed real scoring chemistry with C.J. Stroud as a rookie, reaching the end zone six times on just 68 targets, an efficient touchdown rate for a first-year player.Production and role grew as the season progressed, jumping from a quiet start (9/121/1 over his first six games) to a much stronger 26/272/3 stretch over the next seven starts, showing an increasing role in the offense.College tape backs up his pedigree (87 catches for 1,183 yards and nine touchdowns) as a senior at Iowa State, plus eight 100-yard games across 26 Division I contests, demonstrating a track record of production against high-level competition.Natural hands-catcher who high-points the ball and runs polished routes, giving him a refined skill set for a rookie.Question Marks:
Target consistency was a major issue as a rookie (five or fewer in 14 of 19 games), making him unreliable as a weekly fantasy starter.Explosiveness lagged behind his opportunity in stretches, averaging just 10.5 yards per catch and 10.17 fantasy points per game (PPR) during his highest-volume run, suggesting Higgins’ game was more possession-based.Struggles with quick directional changes and working back to the quarterback could cap his route versatility. Higgins had WR3 snaps (58.9%) in his rookie season, an area that must improve this year to become more fantasy-relevant.Conclusion: Houston wants to control the clock with the run game and play top-tier defense, which should lead to fewer passing attempts and targets in multiple games in 2026. Higgins should climb into a better WR2 in this offense, as long as Tank Dell doesn’t regain his previous season. Any investment in him is based on his talent paired with an increase in playing time and targets. His upside light is shining, but most will look away before seeing it.
Proven WR1 ceiling when featured — his second-half 2024 stretch with Cleveland (69 catches, 963 yards, and three touchdowns – 18.33 FPPG over 10 games) shows what he's capable of with consistent volume.Set career highs across the board in 2024 (90 catches, 1,229 yards, and 145 targets), proving he can handle a true featured role in the right offense.Flashed real explosiveness with multiple 20-plus fantasy point outings, including a season-best 9/235/1 performance against his former team in Denver.Closed out his final season in Denver strong, emerging as the clear top receiver over his last six games (37/523/3), showing he can elevate his play down the stretch.Question Marks:
Target competition in Cleveland is significant heading into 2026, with Harold Fannin projected as the clear top option and rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston also fighting for looks — leaving little clarity on Jeudy's role.Efficiency collapsed in 2025 with a downgrade in quarterback play, catching just 47.2% of his targets and seeing his fantasy points cut roughly in half from the year before.History of feast-or-famine usage is a real concern. Jeudy’s had extended stretches of three-catches-or-fewer games (12 of 16 starts in 2022) and a sluggish first half even in his best statistical season (2024), making him unpredictable on a week-to-week basis.Conclusion: Jeury has the feel of a fading player with roadkill vibes, but his price point is free, and he has had success in the NFL. A change in quarterback and a new coaching staff could bring a playable pulse to his 2026 snaps. The first step in his demise is the Browns’ rookie receiving class outplaying him, which isn’t a given. Jeudy feels more like a deep flier than a sleeper, while doing enough in his NFL career to keep an open mind about his role/opportunity this year.
Steady college production, catching 103 passes for 1,608 yards and 13 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Ohio State — a proven pipeline program for NFL-ready receivers.High draft capital (13th overall) signals strong confidence from Tennessee and typically correlates with quicker playing time and target opportunities for rookie receivers.Polished route runner with fluid movement and strong hands, giving him a refined skill set that should translate quickly, especially working the underneath areas to move the chains.Strong catch-point ability and body control (tracking the ball in traffic, securing sideline/end zone catches) give him red zone and third-down upside as the field compresses.Walks into a wide-open target vacuum in Tennessee — no Titans receiver caught more than 50 passes last season, leaving a clear runway for volume as the team's new top target.Question Marks:
Release against physical press-man corners is an area that needs refinement, which could disrupt his early-career success.Size-over-speed profile (4.53 forty) means he may lack the top-end explosiveness to consistently separate downfield, potentially capping his big-play upside early on.Rookie learning curve and unproven NFL chemistry make him a projection more than a known commodity.Conclusion: Tate brings an intriguing skill set to the Titans’ offense, but Tennessee does have viable receiving options to compete with him for targets in his rookie campaign. Winning route running tends to lead to rookie wideouts having success out of the gate, and Tate checks that box firmly.
As a WR30 (his pricing in the NFFC), he must score over 180.00 PPR fantasy points, which, in essence, was Ladd McConkey (66/789/6) in 2025. Let’s call him a maybe, but drafters probably need him to beat those expectations to be a winning swing this year. I expect the back half of his year to be much better than the front half.
Tight Ends
Only eight running backs and wide receivers scored more PPR fantasy points than McBride (315.90) in 2025.He outscored the second-best tight end (Kyle Pitts – 210.80) by 105.10 PPR fantasy points.McBride averaged 17.14 PPR fantasy points across his last 34 starts.Touchdowns (11) become relevant in his fantasy stat line in 2025 after only scoring six times across his first 49 games in the NFL.The Cardinals led the NFL in completions (427) and pass attempts (649) last year, but ranked much lower in 2024 (374-for-543).McBride ranked third in the NFL in targets (169) behind Ja’Marr Chase (185) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (172).Only Puka Nacua (129) had more catches than McBride (126).Over four years in the NFL, he’s missed two games, compared to five by Brock Bowers in 2024 and 2025.McBride scored over 20.00 PPR fantasy points in seven of his last 12 starts, giving him an elite floor ratio (88.2% over 10.00 fantasy points) with 10 outcomes higher than 15.00 fantasy points.Question Marks:
The Cardinals brought in a new head coach and offensive coordinator. Mike LaFleur saw his tight ends with the Rams blossom in 2025 (103/1,128/17 on 150 targets).Arizona drafted a stud running back (Jeremiyah Love – third overall) and invested in a rookie quarterback in the third round (Carson Beck).How much does their offense change from 2025? Trailing in games led to the Cardinals airing the ball out.Does Trey McBride’s ceiling change if Carson Beck starts for a significant part of Arizona’s games later in the season?Conclusion: What’s not to like about McBride? He has been a beast in back-to-back years, and the Cardinals have an exciting cast of foundation offensive players. The emergence of Michael Wilson may steal some targets from McBride while the fantasy market continues to wait for Marvin Harrison to put his stud stamp on his receiving production. If Arizona/Love runs the ball well, McBride will even have more room to operate over the short areas of the field.
In the end, his floor should remain a 100-catch tight end with plenty of yards and a new reasonable floor in scoring. His price point on the NFFC is favorable considering his ceiling and previous resume.
In the early draft season, Bowers is treated as more of an edge at tight end than Trey McBride despite coming off a disappointing injury year.The Raiders have below-par wide receiver options, painting a high-floor target season for the talented tight end.Las Vegas upgraded their quarterback options in the offseason, highlighted by drafting National Champion Fernando Mendoza with the first overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft.Bowers scored 24.5% of his PPR fantasy points in one game (12/133/3).He averaged 14.71 PPR fantasy points over 12 games (12.11 in 11 starts outside his one impact game).A knee injury in Week 1 (5/103 on eight targets) derailed his season.The Raiders scored a league-low 241 points in 2025, compared to 355 by the Arizona Cardinals. Which team added more offensive firepower in the offseason?Question Marks:
Geno Smith was a bust at quarterback last year. At a minimum, Kirk Cousins should be a significant upgrade. Can Fernando Mendoza hit the ground running, and does he have enough receiving weapons to push the Raiders up the offensive rankings?Does Bowers get an injury risk ding for missing five games last year?Conclusion: Bowers checks the opportunity box in a big way in 2026 based on the wide receiver structure of Las Vegas. He draws WR1 target status at the tight end position in an offense that wants to run the ball better and play better defense. I support his number one tight end rating this summer, but that isn’t a knock on Trey McBride. In his rookie year, Bowers had eight catches or more in seven of his 17 starts, highlighted by four high-catch games (10/93, 13/126/1, 10/140/1, and 11/99).
On an interesting note, the Raiders face the Cardinals on the road in Week 17. The best tight end in this game could be on the roster of many teams that win overall championships in the high-stakes market. Las Vegas draws Denver and Tennessee at home in Weeks 15 and 16.
Fannin proved to be the value at tight end in 2025 due to him being undrafted in most fantasy formats.He finished sixth in PPR fantasy points (187.40) at the tight end position while operating as the Browns’ TE2 over the first five weeks behind David Njoku and missed the final game and a half with a groin issue.His 2025 rookie resume lacked impact games (8/114/1 in Week 14), with three other outcomes with nine targets or more.Fannin scored between 10.00 and 20.00 PPR fantasy points in eight of his 16 games.Cleveland should give him a WR1 opportunity this year. They finished last year ranked sixth in tight end PPR fantasy points (273.80), thanks to finishing third in the NFL in percentage of their team’s completions (34.4%).Question Marks:
He plays for the Browns!Does Cleveland have a trusted option at quarterback?The Browns scored only 279 points last year, 31st in the NFL.Will his overall opportunity be higher than the second-tier tight end options?Fannin didn’t practice in May or June, suggesting that Cleveland was being cautious with his recovery from groin surgery.Conclusion: Based on his gap in ADP to Colston Loveland, Fannin is the best value at tight end based on my early projections. He gets some dings for playing with the Browns and poor quarterback options, but Cleveland should feature him in their passing game. Should his ceiling be higher than his 2025 stats (72/744/6 on 107 targets)? And Fannin has the tools and pedigree (117/1,620/11 in his final year in college at age 19) to be a much better player. In my thoughts this draft season.
Loveland flashed elite tight end stats in three games (6/118/2, 10/91/1, and 8/137) in three games in his rookie season.The Bears barely used him over their first seven games (2/12, 0/0, 1/31, missed game, 2/11, 3/24, and 3/38), leading to only 11 catches for 116 yards and no scores on 18 targets.Despite his better play over his final 12 matchups (59/790/8 on 89 targets – including the postseason), Loveland scored under 10.00 fantasy points in five other contests (4/55, 3/40, 3/28, and 4/56).Chicago featured him in Week 17 through two playoff games, leading to four consecutive games (10, 13, 15, and 10) with double-digit targets. The Bears gave Loveland more than five targets in only one other start.His best value came in Week 17 (21.40), Week 18 (25.10), and Week 19 (23.70).The Bears downgraded their top wide receiver options by one player by trading DJ Moore to the Bills, which should give Colston more chances in 2026.Question Marks:
Can Caleb Williams show more accuracy (58.1% completion rate in 2025) in his third year in the Bears’ offense?Is Loveland priced at his ceiling in 2026 fantasy drafts? Or is his opportunity and potential success enough to close the gap to Brock Bowers and Trey McBride?Conclusion: Based on his NFFC ADP (48), Loveland drafters can develop their rosters at running back and wide receiver over the first three rounds, while Bowers and McBride teams must figure out if the RB/WR tradeoffs later in drafts are high enough to finish their roster at key positions after the second round.
Here are three comp builds in the NFFC based on current ADPs:
McCaffrey/Bowers/McConkey/NabersLamb/Hampton/McBride/DJ MooreJefferson/Barkley/Love/LovelandIn the end, the success of Loveland over the back 12 games last year prorates to an 80/900/7 season, so there is a lot to like about his ceiling in 2026.
Warren (76/825/5 on 112 targets) was the best rookie tight end in 2025, leading to him ranking fifth in PPR fantasy points (188.50).On the downside, he had no impact game, scoring between 15.00 and 20.00 fantasy points in four matchups (5/73/1, 6/63/1, 4/69/1, and 8/99).The Colts traded Michael Pittman to the Steelers, opening up 111 targets to be divided between Indianapolis’s top wide receivers and Warren.He scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in eight (4/53, 5/26, 5/45, 2/17, 3/19, 3/30, 5/43, and 5/26) of the Colts' last 10 matchups due to an injury to Daniel Jones. As a result, Warren averaged only 8.7 PPR fantasy points over this span.Warren had a good chance at leading Indianapolis in targets in 2026.Question Marks:
The Colts scored 321 points over their first 10 games last year, highlighted by seven games (33, 41, 40, 31, 38, 38, and 31) with over 30 points, but averaged 20.7 points over their final seven contests (HOU twice, SEA, and JAC twice).Is Daniel Jones the real deal at quarterback, or did the Colts donate $88 million to the 24th-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2026?Can Warren produce difference-maker touchdowns? He had 12 TDs in his final season (104/1,233/8 on 137 targets with 26 rushes for 218 yards and four scores) at Penn State.Conclusion: His natural progression and opportunity in 2026 paint a winning tight end picture, but that is also the case for all three 2026 rookie tight ends. Warren draws the @TEN, CIN, and @CLE in Weeks 15 to 17. He brings a safe tight end feel, with another gear to his game if Indy does feature him in their passing game.
LaPorta is still living off his breakout rookie season (86/893/10).The Lions scored 481 and 564 points over the past two years, with 74 scores coming via the pass.He missed eight games with a back issue (herniated disk) last season, leading to Detroit’s tight ends not scoring over their final nine matchups with bottom-tier tight end stats (23/170/0 on 38 targets).Over his 42 games in the NFL, LaPorta averaged 4.4 catches for 50 yards and 0.48 touchdowns (12.26 PPR fantasy points per game).LaPorta has been practicing for over a month.Question Marks:
How hard is it to reinjury a herniated disc in the NFL? One bad block or tackle?He had surgery last November.Can LaPorta move to the second option in the passing game for Detroit?Conclusion: LaPorta lies somewhere between a value fantasy selection and a risk option. He shouldn’t have an issue with his disk this year, but in this game we play, nothing is guaranteed. The Lions will create plenty of scoring chances, and his NFL resume points to another 200.00 PPR fantasy point season if on the field for 17 games. The tight end pool in 2026 looks much deeper than most years, allowing drafters to cheat the position over the first seven rounds in 12-team leagues and still land a helpful piece to the puzzle.
Kraft had right ACL knee surgery last November, giving him nine and a half weeks of recovery time to be ready for Week 1.He was off to a phenomenal start over his first seven games (30/469/1) last season, highlighted by two impact showings (6/124/1 and 7/143/1).His yards per catch have risen in back-to-back seasons (11.5, 14.1, and 15.3).The Packers expect him to play in Week 1.Question Marks:
Players coming off significant knee injury tend to underperform expectations the following year.Kraft could see fewer snaps and targets in September, putting him behind the pace of the best tight end options in 2026.Jordan Love had yet to develop into a top-tier, impact quarterback despite grading well in yards per pass attempt (8.0 and 7.7) over the past two years.Conclusion: As much as I like the direction of Kraft up the tight end rankings and potential WR1 opportunity in the Packers’ offense, I plan on fading him this year unless he slides a round or two behind his ADP. I took a neutral approach to his early projections, putting him in a 50/50 situation to beat or underproduce my outlook.
A low-ceiling player who is swiftly playing through the final holes of his great NFL career. His resume speaks for itself. He needs 23 more catches to rank fifth all-time.Only 13 touches across his last 48 starts in the regular season.He comes off a 10-year low in targets (108), but Kelce had a rebound in his yards per catch (11.2 – 8.5 in 2024).Despite his less-than-rosy outlook for 2026, only two tight ends (Trey McBride and Kyle Pitts) outscored him in PPR fantasy points (193.20) last season.Kelce had a 5.9% impact ratio in 2025, but his floor (10.00 PPR fantasy points or higher) came in 52.9% of the time while playing three games without Patrick Mahomes.Question Marks:
Has the mystique of the Chiefs’ offense left the building?Kelce limped him four bust showings (1/8, 1/6, 5/36, and 3/12) across his final five starts in 2025.He had six targets or fewer in 11 games.Conclusion: I can’t dismiss that Kelce could score 180.00 PPR fantasy points in 2026, which would more than pay his bills for his current tight end rank and ADP. The overall tight end pool could be the best I’ve seen since playing in the high-stakes fantasy football market, so is your goal to find a player to beat expectations by a wide margin? Or buy a potential steady piece to the puzzle, with the hopes of gaining a fantasy edge at other positions? Kelce could be the Chiefs’ third option in the passing game this year if Xavier Worthy regains his late rookie season form.
Kittle falls into a similar realm as Tucker Kraft due to him coming off a significant injury (torn Achilles), which required surgery in mid-January. His recovery time was expected to be between nine and 12 months.The 49ers placed Kittle on the PUP list in late July.He expects to be ready for Week 1, but Kittle needs medical clearance, which puts him in draft limbo in August.Kittle has only once suited up for a full season of starts in the NFL.Over his past 57 regular-season games, he scored 32 times.He’s gained over 1,000 receiving yards four times in his nine years in the league.Question Marks:
Kittle will turn 33 in October.Achilles injuries can be tricky, and any delay to his return means that he could be overpriced in drafts.Conclusion: Player or coach speak in the NFL moves the draft needle, but there continues to be a ton of misinformation surrounding player injuries. Kittle brings a big-play/scoring upside profile to the tight end position. He punched a winning fantasy ticket four times (9/84/1, 6/67/2, 8/88/1, and 7/115/1) over his final six starts last year (19.98 PPR fantasy points) with Brock Purdy behind center. With Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans on the field, Kittle should be the 49ers' third option in the passing game. Tricky player to draft, as more information is required to determine his 2026 NFL start date.
Kincaid has been a losing tease in back-to-back years due to missing nine games.His rookie success (73/673/2 on 91 targets) painted a much higher career ceiling when adding his starting quarterback and the Bills high scoring potential.He comes off a career high in touchdowns (5) while suiting up for only 12 games. His catch rate (79.6%) was actually lower than his rookie season (80.2%).The Bills’ tight ends caught 97 passes for 1,210 yards and 12 touchdowns on 121 targets in 2025, highlighted by them gaining 12.5 yards per catch (4th in the league) and ranking third in PPR fantasy points (290.00).Kincaid was never on the field for more than 55% of the Bills’ plays last year (39.0% of their snaps in the games that he played). He also saw fewer snaps across his final seven games in 2024.Question Marks:
How much does DJ Moore steal from the Bills’ tight end opportunity?Since arriving in the NFL, Kincaid has split tight end snaps in just about every game (80% or more plays only five times in his career over 41 matchups).He played through a torn PCL last season, which didn’t require surgery (seems like a red flag).Kincaid also battled oblique and hamstring issues in 2025.Conclusion: Based on his stats over limited snaps last season, Kincaid has a value feel to his fantasy profile. Unfortunately, his injury risk looks real based on his left knee issue in 2025 and also late in 2024. He also battled bursitis in his right knee before last year. At this point, I have to pass on his expected value profile and lean on his injury risk. As a second tight end, why not gamble? But there is no way I am coming out of any fantasy draft with him as my TE1.
Pitts comes off a career season (88/928/5 on 118 targets), which was expected after flashing a high floor in his rookie year (68/1,026/1 on 110 targets).He hasn’t missed a game over the past three years, but two ended with below-expected value in fantasy points (13th in 2023 – 137.70 and 15th in 131.20).His breakout year placed him second in tight end scoring (210.80) last year.The Falcons featured him much more in the passing game over four matchups (26/363/3 on 35 targets) late in the year with Drake London out. His best career game (11/66/3) came in Week 15.The Browns’ tight end ranked sixth (112/1,078/9) and eighth (111/953/7) under the direction of Browns’ former head coach (Kevin Stefanski) and offensive coordinator (Tommy Rees).Question Marks:
Possible third option in the passing game behind Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts.Does Zachariah Branch steal some of his short-area targets?Both of the Falcons’ top two quarterbacks are banged up in late July?Is Michael Penix or Tua Tagovailoa a better option for the Falcons’ passing game?Conclusion: My early projections for Pitts suggest I’m off base based on his outlook in the fantasy market. In essence, he is priced 15% lower than his result last year in fantasy points, based on Drake London being in the field for five more games (29.5% of their schedule). My next update will have him up at least two TE ranking spots due to dings in Dalton Kincaid’s profile and some combination of the two tight ends coming off injuries. Pitts scored under 15.00 fantasy points in 12 of 17 starts in 2025, which paints him more as a steady option than an impact upside tight end.
Ferguson plays in a high-volume passing option (2024 – 637 and 2025 – 624), creating 398 and 419 completions.He gained only 7.8 yards per catch over the past two years, which falls more in line with running backs (7.4 in 2025 ~ tight ends – 10.1).From Week 2 to Week 7, Ferguson had an active role in the Cowboys’ passing game (46/311/6 on 52 targets), leading to him averaging 18.85 PPR fantasy points per game.Despite his early success, Ferguson crushed fantasy teams across his final 10 starts (31/266/2 – 6.97 FPPG).He ranks 9th (177.10) and 4th (190.10) in tight end fantasy points in 2023 and 2025.Question Marks:
Only a safety value option for Dak Prescott, with Dallas relying heavily on their top two wideouts to move the ball.No touchdowns in 2024 over 14 games.In his best two years, Ferguson averaged six targets per game.Conclusion: When drafting fantasy teams, the best success comes with the least number of lineup decisions. Ferguson’s great start in 2025 made it challenging to bench him until his gains were given away late in the year. He comes off eight scores, but the Cowboys must feature him deeper in the passing game to become a more complete fantasy team. His peaks and valleys point to a challenging tight end to manage again in 2026. Viable TE2, with a chance to surprise.
