Wide Receiver · Pittsburgh Steelers
DK Metcalf — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.
The case
- · Over the past two seasons, Metcalf had regression in his targets (119, 108, and 99) due to missing four combined games.
- · He comes off a six-year low in catches (59) and receiving yards (850).
- · Earlier in his career, Metcalf profiled as high scoring wideout (22 touchdowns) over 33 starts in 2020 and 2021.
- · He finished 26th in PPR scoring (187.20) in a passing offense that ranked 24th in fantasy points (350.30) in NFFC scoring.
- · A change in coaching staff should lead to more balls in the air for Pittsburgh’s offense in 2026.
Question marks
- · Does Aaron Rodgers have one more competitive season left in his right arm?
- · The Steelers brought in Michael Pittman to compete for targets.
- · Will Pittsburgh push higher in the quarterback pass attempt rankings (550 in 2026 – 26th)?
- · The Jaguars’ wide receiving corps is much better than two years ago.
- · The fantasy market is coin-tossing Thomas and Parker Washington.
- · Will the Jaguars repeat their growth in offense in 2026?
Shawn's conclusion
The fantasy market will debate whether Thomas is a fact or a fiction story this draft season. He brings size and speed to the receiving table, but his key component this year is opportunity. I expect his targets to rebound in 2026. For Thomas to reach WR2 status, he probably needs 120 balls thrown his way with a correction in his catch rate. Right kind of swing, but his upside ride may have more peaks and valleys this season until the Jaguars’ wide receiver rotation tightens up.
More on Metcalf
Metcalf put together his best statistical season in 2022, setting career highs in catches (90) and targets (141) while surpassing 1,000 yards for the second time. Seattle deployed him closer to the line of scrimmage that year, which pulled his yards per catch down to 11.6 from 14.7 over his first three seasons. He was at his best in four standout games and maintained a floor of seven catches in seven of his 19 appearances.
Seattle pivoted back to using him as a deep threat in 2023, and the results were mixed. His yards per catch jumped back up to 16.9, but his catch rate dipped from 63.8% to 55.5%, and he received double-digit targets in only two games. He again cleared 1,000 yards and finished with eight touchdowns, but his workload was inconsistent. Metcalf averaged just 6.2 targets per game over the final five weeks. A rib injury cost him Week 7, and he battled hip, toe, and back problems down the stretch. He finished 21st among wide receivers in PPR scoring with 225.40 fantasy points.
His final season with Seattle was the most unsettling. A knee injury cost him two midseason games, and he played through a shoulder issue late in the year. After a quiet Week 1, Metcalf strung together three straight 100-yard performances (10/129/1, 4/104/1, and 7/104) before going relatively quiet the rest of the way, with only one other game of real fantasy value in Week 7 (4/99/1). Following his knee injury, he averaged just 10.68 PPR fantasy points per game over his final eight appearances, a disappointing close to an injury-hampered year.
His move to Pittsburgh suggested upside over his first five games (19/3565/4 on 31 targets – 15.72 fantasy points in PPR formats) despite averaging only 6.2 targets. Metcalf scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in seven of his final 11 matchups while flashing upside in only one other contest (7/148). He was suspended for the final two games due to an off-the-field incident.
I see value in his early price point as Metcalf was pacing as a mid-tier WR2 in 2025 if he played 17 games. Over the past couple of years, these types of wideouts have had bounce-back years, so keep an open mind. I’ll set his bar at 70 catches for 900 yards with five to seven touchdowns.
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