New England Patriots3d ago“Patriots injury announcement: Safety Craig Woodson, shoulder, questionable to return.”
@MikeReiss· ESPN
NFL WEEK 3 · PROJECTIONS & ANALYSIS— LAST GRADE SEP 23, 2026MLB · NFLDK · FD · MGM · BETRIVERSWEEK 3 PROJECTIONS →
Week 3 projections and featured analysis
WEEK 3 PROJECTION UPDATE
Shawn's Week 3 numbers are ready
WEEKLY SOURCESep 22
PREVIOUS WEEKLY VINTAGESep 20
SEASON SOURCEAug 31
View Week 3 projections →Create your account / Sign inWeekly projectionsStatus checks remain separate
Week 3 projection updateUpdated September 23rd
Shawn Childs’ Week 3 Projections: September 22 Update
Shawn’s September 22 Week 3 numbers are ready, with weekly scoring kept separate from earlier weekly and season-long vintages.
By J. Grant
Read the full analysis →Week 3 matchup review
Falcons at Packers: Reading Week 3 Projections Against the Market
A Week 3 comparison has two clocks: Shawn’s frozen September 22 stat projections and current market thresholds. Here is how to read the gap without overstating it.
By J. Grant · Updated September 23rd
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New from ShawnUpdated September 17th
Lions vs. Bills DraftKings Showdown Week 2: Shawn Childs’ Lineup Breakdown
Shawn Childs' rankings in his own words, unedited.
Read Shawn's full rankings →
More analysis
All articles →
UPDATED SEP 14How Did the Top End of the Running Back Pool Do in Week 1?By Shawn Childs
UPDATED SEP 11Shawn Childs’ Week 1 Projections: September 11 UpdateBy Sportshack Research
UPDATED SEP 1049ers vs. Rams DraftKings Showdown 2026: Shawn Childs’ Matchup BreakdownBy Shawn Childs
UPDATED SEP 9Stop Building Sports Projections From Scratch. Plug Into Sportshack.By J. Grant
UPDATED SEP 810 NFL Week 1 Yardage Leans: Model, Role and Defensive ContextBy J. Grant
UPDATED SEP 9Patriots vs. Seahawks Showdown Picks: 5 DraftKings Lineups, Projections & Props for TonightBy Shawn Childs
UPDATED SEP 810 NFL Week 1 Player Props Our Model Says Are MispricedBy J. Grant
UPDATED SEP 32026 Circa World Championship Draft Results and RecapBy Shawn Childs
UPDATED SEP 3What Happened to Handcuff Running Backs?By Shawn Childs
UPDATED SEP 1The Rebirth of Patrick Mahomes: Why His QB17 Price Could Be a GiftBy Shawn Childs
UPDATED AUG 30Inside the $100K Legacy League: Our Model’s Favorite and Week 17 ForecastBy Sportshack Research
UPDATED SEP 12026 NFL Roster Cuts and Moves: Every Team’s Cutdown-Day TransactionsBy Sportshack Research
UPDATED AUG 312026 Green Bay Packers Backfield: Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd, and Kaleb JohnsonBy Shawn Childs
UPDATED AUG 292026 NFL Deep Sleeper TeamBy Shawn Childs
UPDATED AUG 27The Seven NFL Signals I’m Tracking Every Week in 2026By J. Grant
UPDATED AUG 282026 NFL Sleeper TeamBy Shawn Childs
UPDATED AUG 26A Projection Is Not a Probability: How NFL Prop Forecasts Should Be BuiltBy J. Grant
Week 1 DFS videoWatch Shawn's slate breakdown
The ONLY NFL Week 1 DFS Picks You Need Today
Shawn Childs breaks down the Week 1 main slate, the players he likes and the lineup choices that matter today.
Watch the Week 1 DFS breakdown →$249rest of MLB 2026 plus all of NFL 2026 — one payment, lifetime access, no renewals.
Take the passNEWS WIRE
Straight from the beat.
New England Patriots3d ago
Carolina Panthers3d ago“Darren Waller has three catches. Two have gone for TDs. The Panthers lead 27-3. And a "Keep Pounding" chant has broken out at Mercedes-Be…”
@josephperson· The Athletic
Carolina Panthers3d ago“Make that two tuddies for Waller on the day. 12 yards on that one. PAT Is good: CAR 27, ATL 3 with 9:38 to go in Q3”
@Sheena_Marie3· FOX Sports
New Orleans Saints3d ago“Asim Richards stepping in at LT for the injured Kelvin Banks.”
@ByLukeJohnson· New Orleans Times-Picayune
Miami Dolphins3d ago“The Browns are going to be hard to beat aren’t they”
@schadjoe· Palm Beach Post
Pittsburgh Steelers3d ago“It's in his DK's head. Not good”
@MarkKaboly· The Pat McAfee Show
THE FADE · LIVE MODEL VS MARKET
See where our probability differs from the market.
Every Sportshack forecast is timestamped before the event, shown beside the current market probability, and graded after settlement. The full record includes misses.
BEST CALLS · UPDATED SEP 23, 2026
The best call from each night
One top model call from each graded night, scored against the box score the next morning.
SEP 23, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Max Scherzer
over 4.5 strikeouts
Finished with 7K · TOR vs BAL
MODEL PROBABILITY 68.6%
SEP 22, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Max Fried
under 5.5 strikeouts
Finished with 4K · NYY vs TB
MODEL PROBABILITY 79.6%
SEP 21, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
River Ryan
over 2.5 strikeouts
Finished with 3K · DET vs WSH
MODEL PROBABILITY 81.8%
SEP 20, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Gavin Williams
under 7.5 strikeouts
Finished with 9K · CLE vs ATH
MODEL PROBABILITY 77.3%
SEP 19, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Jose Quintana
over 2.5 strikeouts
Finished with 2K · COL vs SEA
MODEL PROBABILITY 70.7%
SEP 18, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Dustin May
under 5.5 strikeouts
Finished with 4K · MIL vs BAL
MODEL PROBABILITY 77.6%
SEP 17, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Michael King
over 4.5 strikeouts
Finished with 6K · SD vs COL
MODEL PROBABILITY 73.3%
SEP 16, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Chris Bassitt
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 6K · BAL vs NYM
MODEL PROBABILITY 76.0%
SEP 15, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Kyle Freeland
over 2.5 strikeouts
Finished with 1K · COL vs SD
MODEL PROBABILITY 75.1%
SEP 14, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Corbin Burnes
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 4K · AZ vs MIA
MODEL PROBABILITY 75.2%
SEP 13, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Chase Burns
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 5K · CIN vs MIL
MODEL PROBABILITY 82.6%
SEP 12, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Tyler Glasnow
under 7.5 strikeouts
Finished with 7K · LAD vs MIA
MODEL PROBABILITY 73.1%
SEP 11, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Dustin May
under 5.5 strikeouts
Finished with 6K · MIL vs CIN
MODEL PROBABILITY 74.8%
SEP 10, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Cristian Javier
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 5K · HOU vs PHI
MODEL PROBABILITY 66.6%
SEP 9, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Zac Gallen
over 2.5 strikeouts
Finished with 1K · AZ vs KC
MODEL PROBABILITY 88.1%
SEP 8, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Corbin Burnes
over 2.5 strikeouts
Finished with 2K · AZ vs KC
MODEL PROBABILITY 90.1%
SEP 7, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Joe Ryan
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 7K · MIN vs DET
MODEL PROBABILITY 89.8%
SEP 6, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Gavin Williams
under 7.5 strikeouts
Finished with 11K · CLE vs DET
MODEL PROBABILITY 77.9%
SEP 5, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
George Kirby
under 5.5 strikeouts
Finished with 5K · SEA vs ATH
MODEL PROBABILITY 57.9%
SEP 4, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Andre Pallante
over 2.5 strikeouts
Finished with 1K · STL vs COL
MODEL PROBABILITY 75.6%
SEP 3, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
José Soriano
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 2K · TOR vs CLE
MODEL PROBABILITY 73.2%
SEP 2, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Griffin Jax
over 4.5 strikeouts
Finished with 1K · TB vs NYM
MODEL PROBABILITY 78.1%
SEP 1, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Gavin Williams
under 6.5 strikeouts
Finished with 13K · CLE vs TOR
MODEL PROBABILITY 81.1%
AUG 31, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Brandon Pfaadt
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 1K · AZ vs PHI
MODEL PROBABILITY 72.2%
AUG 30, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Seth Lugo
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 2K · KC vs CLE
MODEL PROBABILITY 67.2%
AUG 29, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Bailey Ober
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 5K · MIN vs CWS
MODEL PROBABILITY 78.0%
AUG 28, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Luis Castillo
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 1K · CWS vs MIN
MODEL PROBABILITY 70.7%
AUG 24, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Ranger Suarez
under 5.5 strikeouts
Finished with 4K · BOS vs MIA
MODEL PROBABILITY 74.2%
AUG 23, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Bailey Ober
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 3K · MIN vs SD
MODEL PROBABILITY 72.2%
AUG 22, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Ryan Weathers
under 5.5 strikeouts
Finished with 3K · NYY vs TOR
MODEL PROBABILITY 69.6%
AUG 21, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Randy Vásquez
under 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 3K · SD vs MIN
MODEL PROBABILITY 71.9%
AUG 20, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Gavin Williams
under 7.5 strikeouts
Finished with 11K · CLE vs SF
MODEL PROBABILITY 81.6%
AUG 19, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Parker Messick
under 6.5 strikeouts
Finished with 10K · CLE vs SF
MODEL PROBABILITY 72.2%
AUG 18, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Zack Wheeler
under 7.5 strikeouts
Finished with 7K · PHI vs MIA
MODEL PROBABILITY 78.7%
AUG 17, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Carmen Mlodzinski
over 2.5 strikeouts
Finished with 3K · PIT vs DET
MODEL PROBABILITY 77.1%
AUG 16, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Jake Irvin
under 4.5 strikeouts
Finished with 6K · WSH vs NYM
MODEL PROBABILITY 69.0%
AUG 15, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Jacob Misiorowski
under 8.5 strikeouts
Finished with 6K · MIL vs LAD
MODEL PROBABILITY 74.9%
AUG 14, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Michael King
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 4K · SD vs CLE
MODEL PROBABILITY 81.4%
AUG 13, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Keider Montero
over 2.5 strikeouts
Finished with 0K · DET vs CLE
MODEL PROBABILITY 78.9%
AUG 12, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Janson Junk
under 4.5 strikeouts
Finished with 2K · MIA vs PIT
MODEL PROBABILITY 66.5%
AUG 11, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Ryan Weathers
under 6.5 strikeouts
Finished with 4K · NYY vs SEA
MODEL PROBABILITY 72.7%
AUG 10, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Freddy Peralta
over 4.5 strikeouts
Finished with 5K · TB vs ATH
MODEL PROBABILITY 71.4%
AUG 9, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Jacob Misiorowski
under 8.5 strikeouts
Finished with 9K · MIL vs MIN
MODEL PROBABILITY 73.6%
AUG 8, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Max Scherzer
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 4K · TOR vs PHI
MODEL PROBABILITY 71.9%
AUG 7, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Zack Wheeler
under 6.5 strikeouts
Finished with 6K · PHI vs TOR
MODEL PROBABILITY 75.8%
AUG 6, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Cristopher Sánchez
under 7.5 strikeouts
Finished with 6K · PHI vs WSH
MODEL PROBABILITY 78.6%
AUG 5, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Kyle Harrison
under 6.5 strikeouts
Finished with 10K · MIL vs PIT
MODEL PROBABILITY 73.8%
AUG 4, 2026
HITBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Jesús Luzardo
under 7.5 strikeouts
Finished with 7K · PHI vs WSH
MODEL PROBABILITY 72.2%
AUG 3, 2026
MISSBEST CALL OF THE NIGHT
Brandon Pfaadt
over 3.5 strikeouts
Finished with 3K · AZ vs SD
MODEL PROBABILITY 70.6%
HELD-OUT VALIDATION · STRIKEOUT MODEL · RETROSPECTIVE
Across 4,570 starts it had never seen, our stated odds land within 3.2 points.
The model was held out of all 4,570 2025 starts, then scored against every one. Its probability distribution is calibrated to ECE 0.0049, and its stated confidence tracks reality within 3.2points across every band. Accurate, not perfect — and the whole table is published so you can check it. This is validation measured after the fact, separate from the nightly record above; Shawn's 2025 projections get the same treatment on the retrospective backtest.
WE SAIDACTUALHITSTARTS
50–55%50.9%1,115
55–60%55.5%1,056
60–65%59.3%869
65–70%63.3%641
70%+70.1%889
MEAN CALIBRATION ERROR 3.2 PTS · N = 4,570 HELD-OUT 2025 STARTS
BEST CALL LAST NIGHT
Max Scherzer over 4.5 K
Our number said 68.6% at a posted +128. He struck out 7.
WHAT ACCURATE MEANS HERE
2—3 is a good night, not a perfect one
A 60% call is supposed to miss 4 times in 10 — that is what makes it a 60% call. We publish every result so the rate is checkable, and the rate is what matters.
WHAT WE WILL NOT CLAIM
No ROI, no closing-line value
We take no positions, so we publish no profit figures and no CLV. What we publish is what we can prove: held-out calibration and a nightly graded record that is one night old.
THE MOATMLB LIVE · NFL SEPT 10
The Childs System
Shawn Childs' projection system, graded in public. His 2026 guide runs 146,000 words across all 32 teams, and his 2025 season is graded here player-week by player-week.
4,807 PLAYER-WEEKS GRADED
FREE FOREVERLIVE · MLB
6–10 Leg Reality Engine
Build the long ticket. We price it honestly — the joint probability in plain English, the quoted payout against the fair one, and the hold you pay for stacking legs.
LEG CAP 6 · SAME-GAME REFUSED
THE FLAGSHIPLIVE · MLB
The Lab
Ask for a ticket shape in plain language; the executor does every calculation. Each leg shows the model's probability against the devigged market price, and each ticket shows what the book keeps.
4 GATE-PASSED MODELS BEHIND IT
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Explore Shawn's Week 3 projections and analysis. The MLB record keeps being written nightly.
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DATA: ISSUED AND GRADED STORES · RECORD SNAPSHOT SHIPS WITH EACH DATA UPDATE