The public record

Every projection we posted, graded

These numbers were published before the games were played and scored against the box score afterward. Nothing is added after the fact, nothing is removed once graded, and the misses are here with the hits. This is the live forward record — the after-the-fact validation lives on the retrospective backtest, and the two are never combined.

Grading began 2026-08-03 · data source: live repo · free and un-gated, permanently.

nights graded

projections graded

70.5%

hit rate (31—13)

0.2292

Brier score

Record accruing — 2 nights graded. A sample this small says very little about long-run accuracy; the honest read arrives after a few weeks. The page updates itself every morning whether the numbers flatter us or not.

Calibration — stated probability vs what happened

When the model says 62%, does it happen 62% of the time? Bands with no projections yet are shown empty rather than hidden.

We said	Avg stated	Actual	n
50–55%	52.6%	90.0%	10
55–60%	57.9%	61.5%	13
60–65%	62.1%	66.7%	12
65–70%	68.4%	60.0%	5
70%+	71.1%	75.0%	4

The same measurement on 4,570 held-out 2025 starts is on the backtest page. That one is retrospective; this one is not.

Tue, Aug 4, 2026

21—7 · 75%

Projection we posted	Game	Our number	Price	Actual	Result
Jesús Luzardo under 7.5 K	PHI vs WSH	72.2%	+101 [DraftKings]	7 K	HIT
Patrick Sandoval under 5.5 K	BOS vs CWS	71.6%	+102 [BetRivers]	5 K	HIT
MacKenzie Gore under 6.5 K	TEX vs SF	70.2%	-103 [BetOnline.ag]	4 K	HIT
Randy Dobnak over 2.5 K	KC vs MIN	69.2%	-125 [Fanatics]	1 K	MISS
Eduardo Rodriguez over 3.5 K	AZ vs SD	68.5%	-145 [BetMGM]	4 K	HIT
Ryan Weathers under 5.5 K	NYY vs STL	68.2%	+100 [BetRivers]	6 K	MISS
Sean Manaea over 4.5 K	NYM vs CLE	68.1%	-102 [DraftKings]	7 K	HIT
J.T. Ginn over 4.5 K	ATH vs CIN	67.9%	-135 [BetOnline.ag]	5 K	HIT
Trey Yesavage under 5.5 K	TOR vs HOU	64.6%	-110 [BetMGM]	0 K	HIT
Jared Jones under 5.5 K	PIT vs MIL	63.2%	+105 [BetOnline.ag]	4 K	HIT
Emerson Hancock under 4.5 K	SEA vs DET	62.9%	+129 [DraftKings]	6 K	MISS
Hayden Wesneski over 3.5 K	HOU vs TOR	62.0%	-154 [DraftKings]	4 K	HIT
Troy Melton under 5.5 K	DET vs SEA	61.0%	-136 [FanDuel]	4 K	HIT
Hunter Dobbins over 3.5 K	STL vs NYY	60.6%	-159 [BetRivers]	4 K	HIT
Tarik Skubal under 7.5 K	LAD vs CHC	60.3%	-121 [BetRivers]	6 K	HIT
Grayson Rodriguez under 5.5 K	LAA vs BAL	58.5%	-136 [BetRivers]	6 K	MISS
Gabriel Hughes over 3.5 K	COL vs TB	58.1%	+118 [BetRivers]	7 K	HIT
Logan Henderson under 6.5 K	MIL vs PIT	58.0%	-118 [DraftKings]	8 K	MISS
Brady Singer over 4.5 K	CIN vs ATH	57.9%	-114 [BetOnline.ag]	6 K	HIT
Davis Martin under 4.5 K	CWS vs BOS	57.8%	-134 [DraftKings]	1 K	HIT
Cade Povich over 4.5 K	BAL vs LAA	57.5%	-125 [BetRivers]	7 K	HIT
Freddy Peralta over 5.5 K	TB vs COL	57.2%	+134 [BetOnline.ag]	3 K	MISS
Joe Ryan over 5.5 K	MIN vs KC	57.1%	-125 [BetOnline.ag]	3 K	MISS
Grant Holmes over 4.5 K	ATL vs MIA	52.3%	+100 [Bovada]	5 K	HIT
Randy Vásquez under 2.5 K	SD vs AZ	52.0%	-137 [BetRivers]	1 K	HIT
Joey Cantillo under 5.5 K	CLE vs NYM	51.7%	+110 [BetOnline.ag]	5 K	HIT
Javier Assad under 3.5 K	CHC vs LAD	51.4%	-125 [BetMGM]	3 K	HIT
Ryan Gusto over 3.5 K	MIA vs ATL	50.3%	+100 [BetMGM]	5 K	HIT

Mon, Aug 3, 2026

10—6 · 63%

Projection we posted	Game	Our number	Price	Actual	Result
Brandon Pfaadt over 3.5 K	AZ vs SD	70.6%	-164 [BetOnline.ag]	3 K	MISS
Logan Webb over 4.5 K	SF vs TEX	63.7%	-152 [BetRivers]	8 K	HIT
Cal Quantrill under 3.5 K	TEX vs SF	62.5%	-103 [BetOnline.ag]	4 K	MISS
Michael McGreevy under 4.5 K	STL vs NYY	61.8%	-154 [BetOnline.ag]	5 K	MISS
Ian Seymour over 4.5 K	TB vs COL	61.8%	-146 [FanDuel]	9 K	HIT
Shane Bieber under 4.5 K	TOR vs HOU	60.2%	-162 [DraftKings]	6 K	MISS
Brandon Sproat under 5.5 K	MIL vs PIT	59.5%	-128 [DraftKings]	4 K	HIT
Matthew Boyd over 4.5 K	CHC vs LAD	58.2%	-136 [BetRivers]	3 K	MISS
Michael King over 4.5 K	SD vs AZ	58.0%	+105 [BetOnline.ag]	5 K	HIT
Cam Schlittler under 6.5 K	NYY vs STL	57.9%	+123 [BetRivers]	6 K	HIT
Justin Wrobleski under 5.5 K	LAD vs CHC	57.4%	-115 [FanDuel]	4 K	HIT
Aaron Nola under 5.5 K	PHI vs WSH	54.9%	-130 [FanDuel]	5 K	HIT
Bubba Chandler under 4.5 K	PIT vs MIL	54.1%	+125 [BetMGM]	5 K	MISS
Cristian Javier under 3.5 K	HOU vs TOR	53.4%	+125 [BetMGM]	2 K	HIT
Michael Lorenzen under 3.5 K	COL vs TB	53.1%	-160 [BetMGM]	0 K	HIT
Andrew Alvarez over 4.5 K	WSH vs PHI	52.6%	+112 [FanDuel]	5 K	HIT

Revision policy

· Projections are issued before first pitch and timestamped with the model version that produced them.
· A projection may be re-issued if the probable starter changes. The re-issue supersedes the original, both are kept, and only the live one is graded — grade-once, never twice.
· Once a row is graded it is immutable. No row is edited, hidden, or deleted, whatever it says.
· The line used for grading is the consensus line across captured books, chosen before the game.
· If a pitcher is scratched, the row voids and is reported as a void rather than scored.
· Model versions are published. A model that fails its validation gate is not shipped — the outs and earned-run models failed twice and never went live.

What this record is not

It is a record of projection accuracy, not of profit. We take no positions and track no returns, so there is no ROI or closing-line-value figure here and there will not be one until positions are actually tracked. These are projections, not picks — what you do with them is your call.