The public record
Every projection we posted, graded
These numbers were published before the games were played and scored against the box score afterward. Nothing is added after the fact, nothing is removed once graded, and the misses are here with the hits. This is the live forward record — the after-the-fact validation lives on the retrospective backtest, and the two are never combined.
Grading began 2026-08-03 · data source: issued and graded stores · free and un-gated, permanently.
Correction — 2026-08-09
An audit found 22 graded rows whose projections were written after their game's first pitch — a pipeline bug from before the issue-time guard landed on 2026-08-06, not pre-game claims. They are quarantined: kept in the store, visible, and permanently excluded from every number on this page. 20 older rows graded despite being superseded are excluded on the same grade-once principle. Removing them made the record worse, which is exactly why they had to go.
Calibration — when the model says X%, how often does it happen?
Live 2026 graded rows only, quarantined rows excluded, buckets under 30 samples suppressed. Predicted and actual should match; the gap is the grade.
Home run (0.5 line)
| Model said | n | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–5% | 404 | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| 5–10% | 3483 | 7.8% | 8% |
| 10–15% | 4044 | 12.4% | 11.8% |
| 15–25% | 2005 | 17.8% | 16.2% |
| 25–40% | 84 | 28% | 16.7% |
Multi-hit (1.5 line)
| Model said | n | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–15% | 804 | 13.4% | 10.4% |
| 15–25% | 6368 | 20.3% | 18.8% |
| 25–40% | 2818 | 28.4% | 28.2% |
49
nights graded
1239
starts graded (model record)
1110
with a posted price — the rows below
49.5%
hit rate (550—560)
0.2630
Brier score
Did the disagreements win?
A different question from the numbers above. Those measure — whether something called 60% happens about 60% of the time. This measures : on the props where our number disagreed with the price, did the side we favoured actually beat the line. A model can be well calibrated and have no edge at all, so the two are reported separately and never averaged into one accuracy figure.
53.4%
hit rate vs the number (11158—9755)
-5.2%
, flat stake at posted price
+0.10 pts
— did the market move toward us
20913 decided props over 49 nights.
What the numbers actually are today, published rather than withheld: 11158—9755 (53.4% of decided), hypothetical flat-stake return -5.2% over 20913 staked props across 49 nights.
ROI is hypothetical, flat-stake, at the best price captured when we posted. It assumes those prices were available in size, ignores limits, and is not a recommendation to pick anything. Method and the rules governing what counts as a closing price are in the glossary.
Calibration — stated probability vs what happened
When the model says 62%, does it happen 62% of the time? Bands with no projections yet are shown empty rather than hidden.
| We said | Avg stated | Actual | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–55% | 52.6% | 48.7% | 372 |
| 55–60% | 57.4% | 51.4% | 284 |
| 60–65% | 62.4% | 47.7% | 239 |
| 65–70% | 67.1% | 46.3% | 123 |
| 70%+ | 74.4% | 56.5% | 92 |
The same measurement on 4,570 held-out 2025 starts is on the backtest page. That one is retrospective; this one is not.
Wed, Sep 23, 2026
2—3 · 40%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer over 4.5 K | TOR vs BAL | 68.6% | +128 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Chris Bassitt over 3.5 K | BAL vs TOR | 65.8% | +155 [Bovada] | 2 K | MISS |
| Framber Valdez under 5.5 K | DET vs WSH | 58.8% | -143 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Cesar Perdomo over 3.5 K | SF vs MIN | 58.1% | +110 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| Connor Prielipp under 5.5 K | MIN vs SF | 54.7% | -114 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
Tue, Sep 22, 2026
14—14 · 50%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried under 5.5 K | NYY vs TB | 79.6% | -150 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Brandon Williamson over 2.5 K | CIN vs ATL | 76.2% | +115 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Sean Manaea over 4.5 K | NYM vs TEX | 68.7% | -105 [DraftKings] | 9 K | HIT |
| Kyle Freeland over 2.5 K | COL vs AZ | 67.8% | +109 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Shota Imanaga under 5.5 K | CHC vs MIA | 64.8% | +118 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Michael King over 4.5 K | SD vs LAD | 64.3% | +128 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Janson Junk under 3.5 K | MIA vs CHC | 64.0% | -160 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Brady Basso under 3.5 K | ATH vs LAA | 63.2% | -135 [Bovada] | 2 K | HIT |
| Nick Martinez over 3.5 K | TB vs NYY | 62.9% | -110 [BetMGM] | 7 K | HIT |
| Taj Bradley under 6.5 K | MIN vs SF | 61.5% | -114 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | HIT |
| JR Ritchie over 4.5 K | ATL vs CIN | 59.3% | -139 [DraftKings] | 8 K | HIT |
| MacKenzie Gore over 4.5 K | TEX vs NYM | 58.7% | +122 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Logan Gilbert under 6.5 K | SEA vs HOU | 58.6% | -140 [BetMGM] | 3 K | HIT |
| Drew Anderson over 4.5 K | DET vs WSH | 56.9% | -120 [Bovada] | 5 K | HIT |
| Michael Soroka under 4.5 K | AZ vs COL | 56.3% | -125 [BetMGM] | 9 K | MISS |
| Andre Pallante over 3.5 K | STL vs PIT | 55.4% | +125 [Bovada] | 2 K | MISS |
| Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 K | TB vs NYY | 54.9% | +102 [FanDuel] | 11 K | HIT |
| Jared Jones under 5.5 K | PIT vs STL | 54.5% | +106 [FanDuel] | 9 K | MISS |
| Carlos Rodón under 4.5 K | NYY vs TB | 54.2% | +125 [Fanatics] | 8 K | MISS |
| Anthony Molina under 3.5 K | SF vs MIN | 53.0% | +135 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | MISS |
| Dustin May under 3.5 K | MIL vs PHI | 52.2% | -111 [FanDuel] | 2 K | HIT |
| Cristian Javier under 4.5 K | HOU vs SEA | 51.8% | -118 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Parker Messick under 5.5 K | CLE vs BOS | 51.3% | +120 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Yusei Kikuchi over 5.5 K | LAA vs ATH | 51.1% | +130 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Payton Tolle over 5.5 K | BOS vs CLE | 51.0% | +135 [Bovada] | 5 K | MISS |
| Daniel Lynch IV over 3.5 K | KC vs CWS | 51.0% | +112 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Zack Wheeler over 6.5 K | PHI vs MIL | 50.8% | -102 [FanDuel] | 11 K | HIT |
| Anthony Kay under 3.5 K | CWS vs KC | 50.1% | -115 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
Mon, Sep 21, 2026
4—2 · 67%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Ryan over 2.5 K | DET vs WSH | 81.8% | +110 [Bovada] | 3 K | HIT |
| DJ Herz over 3.5 K | WSH vs DET | 77.4% | -106 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Trey Yesavage over 3.5 K | TOR vs BAL | 70.9% | +136 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Shane Baz over 3.5 K | BAL vs TOR | 64.4% | -145 [Bovada] | 2 K | MISS |
| Blade Tidwell over 3.5 K | SF vs MIN | 55.8% | -140 [Fanatics] | 4 K | HIT |
| Zebby Matthews over 4.5 K | MIN vs SF | 52.9% | +100 [BetMGM] | 9 K | HIT |
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
10—17 · 37%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams under 7.5 K | CLE vs ATH | 77.3% | +124 [BetOnline.ag] | 9 K | MISS |
| Walker Buehler under 4.5 K | SD vs MIA | 72.6% | -123 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Sandy Alcantara over 3.5 K | MIA vs SD | 65.3% | -111 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Corbin Burnes over 4.5 K | AZ vs NYY | 65.3% | +100 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Hunter Brown under 6.5 K | HOU vs ATL | 64.5% | -134 [DraftKings] | 10 K | MISS |
| Griffin Jax over 4.5 K | TB vs BOS | 63.6% | -135 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| David Peterson over 4.5 K | CHC vs CIN | 63.4% | -138 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Dean Kremer under 5.5 K | MIN vs LAA | 61.6% | +100 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Matt Wilkinson over 2.5 K | SF vs LAD | 61.3% | +119 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Jonah Tong under 4.5 K | NYM vs PHI | 61.2% | -125 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Quinn Mathews under 5.5 K | STL vs WSH | 61.2% | -132 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Michael Wacha over 4.5 K | KC vs PIT | 60.0% | -120 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Cristopher Sánchez under 6.5 K | PHI vs NYM | 59.9% | -140 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Jake Irvin over 3.5 K | WSH vs STL | 58.9% | -104 [DraftKings] | 8 K | HIT |
| Troy Melton over 4.5 K | DET vs CWS | 58.8% | -115 [Fanatics] | 4 K | MISS |
| Ryan Johnson under 4.5 K | LAA vs MIN | 58.7% | -125 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Jack Perkins over 4.5 K | ATH vs CLE | 57.4% | +128 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 K | MIL vs BAL | 56.7% | -132 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jacob deGrom under 5.5 K | TEX vs TOR | 56.4% | +110 [BetOnline.ag] | 2 K | HIT |
| Brandon Young under 4.5 K | BAL vs MIL | 56.1% | -105 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Martín Pérez over 3.5 K | ATL vs HOU | 55.9% | +150 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Davis Martin under 3.5 K | CWS vs DET | 53.3% | -110 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Patrick Sandoval over 3.5 K | BOS vs TB | 53.0% | +150 [Bovada] | 5 K | HIT |
| Kade Anderson under 4.5 K | SEA vs COL | 52.1% | -108 [FanDuel] | 7 K | MISS |
| Rhett Lowder over 3.5 K | CIN vs CHC | 51.7% | -116 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Tomoyuki Sugano under 3.5 K | COL vs SEA | 50.5% | -123 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Will Warren over 4.5 K | NYY vs AZ | 50.4% | +107 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
16—13 · 55%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana over 2.5 K | COL vs SEA | 70.7% | +140 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Brayan Bello over 2.5 K | BOS vs TB | 70.4% | +117 [DraftKings] | 11 K | HIT |
| Matthew Boyd over 4.5 K | CHC vs CIN | 67.4% | -112 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Brandon Pfaadt over 4.5 K | AZ vs NYY | 67.3% | +119 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Freddy Peralta over 4.5 K | TB vs BOS | 66.9% | -150 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Andrew Alvarez over 3.5 K | WSH vs STL | 66.7% | -155 [BetMGM] | 8 K | HIT |
| Robert Gasser under 5.5 K | MIL vs BAL | 64.1% | -110 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Trevor Rogers under 5.5 K | BAL vs MIL | 63.3% | -108 [DraftKings] | 10 K | MISS |
| Sean Burke under 5.5 K | CWS vs DET | 62.1% | +125 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Noah Cameron under 5.5 K | KC vs PIT | 61.6% | -119 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Reid Detmers under 6.5 K | LAA vs MIN | 61.4% | -110 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Cam Schlittler under 6.5 K | NYY vs AZ | 61.0% | -125 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Grant Holmes over 3.5 K | ATL vs HOU | 60.3% | -147 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Casey Mize under 4.5 K | SD vs MIA | 59.9% | -116 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Cal Quantrill under 3.5 K | TEX vs TOR | 59.1% | -142 [FanDuel] | 0 K | HIT |
| Tanner Bibee over 4.5 K | CLE vs ATH | 58.8% | -115 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Tarik Skubal under 7.5 K | LAD vs SF | 58.2% | -108 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | HIT |
| Bubba Chandler under 4.5 K | PIT vs KC | 56.3% | -130 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Nick Lodolo over 4.5 K | CIN vs CHC | 55.7% | +128 [BetOnline.ag] | 1 K | MISS |
| Hayden Wesneski under 4.5 K | HOU vs ATL | 54.9% | -135 [Bovada] | 3 K | HIT |
| Christian Scott under 5.5 K | NYM vs PHI | 54.8% | -157 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Jacob Lopez over 4.5 K | ATH vs CLE | 54.4% | +125 [Bovada] | 1 K | MISS |
| Michael McGreevy over 3.5 K | STL vs WSH | 53.9% | -105 [BetMGM] | 1 K | MISS |
| Joe Ryan over 6.5 K | MIN vs LAA | 53.9% | +117 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | MISS |
| Bryce Miller over 4.5 K | SEA vs COL | 53.8% | +122 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Eury Pérez under 5.5 K | MIA vs SD | 53.1% | -133 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| José Soriano under 5.5 K | TOR vs TEX | 52.8% | -141 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Andrew Painter over 4.5 K | PHI vs NYM | 52.4% | +124 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Jackson Jobe over 4.5 K | DET vs CWS | 51.1% | -104 [FanDuel] | 9 K | HIT |
Fri, Sep 18, 2026
13—12 · 52%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May under 5.5 K | MIL vs BAL | 77.6% | -111 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Chase Burns over 3.5 K | CIN vs CHC | 76.6% | -127 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Mason Barnett over 2.5 K | ATH vs CLE | 75.3% | -120 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Cade Cavalli under 6.5 K | WSH vs STL | 75.2% | +110 [Bovada] | 6 K | HIT |
| Bryan Woo over 4.5 K | SEA vs COL | 66.9% | +150 [Bovada] | 4 K | MISS |
| Kyle Leahy over 2.5 K | STL vs WSH | 66.6% | -125 [Fanatics] | 1 K | MISS |
| Clay Holmes over 4.5 K | CHC vs CIN | 65.0% | +100 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Dylan Cease under 7.5 K | TOR vs TEX | 62.3% | -140 [BetMGM] | 3 K | HIT |
| Tyler Glasnow under 6.5 K | LAD vs SF | 61.9% | +122 [BetOnline.ag] | 10 K | MISS |
| Grayson Rodriguez over 4.5 K | LAA vs MIN | 61.6% | -105 [Fanatics] | 4 K | MISS |
| Eduardo Rodriguez over 4.5 K | AZ vs NYY | 61.5% | -135 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Gerrit Cole over 4.5 K | NYY vs AZ | 60.6% | -115 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Gabriel Hughes over 3.5 K | COL vs SEA | 60.3% | +106 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Randy Dobnak over 3.5 K | KC vs PIT | 59.8% | +130 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| Cade Povich over 3.5 K | BAL vs MIL | 58.1% | -130 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Paul Skenes over 5.5 K | PIT vs KC | 56.1% | +110 [BetOnline.ag] | 7 K | HIT |
| Connor Prielipp over 5.5 K | MIN vs LAA | 54.9% | -120 [FanDuel] | 8 K | HIT |
| Tyler Mahle over 4.5 K | ATL vs HOU | 54.5% | +106 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Kumar Rocker over 3.5 K | TEX vs TOR | 54.2% | -114 [BetOnline.ag] | 2 K | MISS |
| Nick Pivetta over 4.5 K | SD vs MIA | 54.2% | -150 [Fanatics] | 4 K | MISS |
| Ranger Suarez under 4.5 K | BOS vs TB | 53.2% | -122 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Tyler Phillips under 3.5 K | MIA vs SD | 53.2% | -107 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| David Sandlin over 4.5 K | CWS vs DET | 52.8% | +126 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Ian Seymour over 5.5 K | TB vs BOS | 51.5% | -118 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | MISS |
| Peter Lambert over 4.5 K | HOU vs ATL | 51.3% | -130 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
Thu, Sep 17, 2026
7—8 · 47%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King over 4.5 K | SD vs COL | 73.3% | +120 [Fanatics] | 6 K | HIT |
| Kyle Harrison over 4.5 K | MIL vs PIT | 69.7% | -135 [Bovada] | 2 K | MISS |
| Framber Valdez over 4.5 K | DET vs CWS | 68.4% | +126 [FanDuel] | 8 K | HIT |
| Justin Wrobleski over 4.5 K | LAD vs CIN | 61.0% | +128 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Nolan McLean over 5.5 K | NYM vs PHI | 59.8% | +125 [Bovada] | 5 K | MISS |
| Sonny Gray over 5.5 K | BOS vs TEX | 59.8% | +155 [Bovada] | 6 K | HIT |
| Tanner Gordon over 3.5 K | COL vs SD | 58.4% | -105 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Erick Fedde under 3.5 K | CWS vs DET | 55.8% | -120 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Walbert Ureña over 4.5 K | LAA vs MIN | 55.0% | -108 [FanDuel] | 9 K | HIT |
| Jeffrey Springs over 3.5 K | ATH vs TB | 52.7% | +125 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Seth Lugo under 4.5 K | KC vs HOU | 51.8% | -154 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Taj Bradley under 6.5 K | MIN vs LAA | 51.8% | +126 [FanDuel] | 9 K | MISS |
| Brady Singer under 4.5 K | CIN vs LAD | 51.7% | -154 [DraftKings] | 0 K | HIT |
| Aaron Nola over 5.5 K | PHI vs NYM | 50.9% | +130 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 K | TB vs ATH | 50.7% | +120 [Bovada] | 3 K | HIT |
Wed, Sep 16, 2026
16—12 · 57%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt over 3.5 K | BAL vs NYM | 76.0% | -115 [Bovada] | 6 K | HIT |
| Matthew Liberatore under 5.5 K | STL vs SF | 74.0% | -155 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Mason Adams over 3.5 K | COL vs SD | 68.5% | +102 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| Carlos Rodón under 5.5 K | NYY vs MIN | 65.9% | -131 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Shota Imanaga under 5.5 K | CHC vs ATL | 65.4% | -142 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Daniel Lynch IV over 2.5 K | KC vs HOU | 64.2% | -145 [Bovada] | 3 K | HIT |
| Max Scherzer over 4.5 K | TOR vs DET | 62.6% | +104 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Zebby Matthews over 4.5 K | MIN vs NYY | 62.4% | -128 [FanDuel] | 8 K | HIT |
| Brady Basso under 2.5 K | ATH vs TB | 62.4% | +110 [DraftKings] | 0 K | HIT |
| Keider Montero over 2.5 K | DET vs TOR | 62.3% | -135 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Anthony Molina under 3.5 K | SF vs STL | 61.5% | -121 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| JR Ritchie over 3.5 K | ATL vs CHC | 60.7% | -140 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| MacKenzie Gore over 4.5 K | TEX vs BOS | 59.7% | -145 [DraftKings] | 0 K | MISS |
| Cristian Javier under 4.5 K | HOU vs KC | 58.8% | -101 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| George Kirby over 5.5 K | SEA vs LAA | 58.8% | +112 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | MISS |
| Nick Martinez over 3.5 K | TB vs ATH | 58.3% | -130 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Parker Messick under 6.5 K | CLE vs CWS | 57.4% | -113 [FanDuel] | 8 K | MISS |
| Robbie Ray over 4.5 K | SD vs COL | 56.3% | +125 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | HIT |
| Andrew Abbott over 3.5 K | CIN vs LAD | 55.6% | +125 [Bovada] | 5 K | HIT |
| Yusei Kikuchi under 5.5 K | LAA vs SEA | 55.3% | +106 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Ryan Gusto over 3.5 K | MIA vs AZ | 54.8% | -102 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jared Jones under 5.5 K | PIT vs MIL | 54.2% | +109 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Anthony Kay over 3.5 K | CWS vs CLE | 53.8% | +140 [Bovada] | 3 K | MISS |
| Blake Snell over 7.5 K | LAD vs CIN | 53.1% | +100 [Bovada] | 1 K | MISS |
| Merrill Kelly over 4.5 K | AZ vs MIA | 52.4% | +132 [DraftKings] | 9 K | HIT |
| Zack Wheeler under 6.5 K | PHI vs WSH | 51.7% | -110 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Logan Henderson over 6.5 K | MIL vs PIT | 51.1% | +132 [FanDuel] | 8 K | HIT |
| Jake Bennett under 4.5 K | BOS vs TEX | 50.9% | -125 [Fanatics] | 7 K | MISS |
Tue, Sep 15, 2026
15—13 · 54%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland over 2.5 K | COL vs SD | 75.1% | +107 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| Drew Anderson over 3.5 K | DET vs TOR | 66.6% | +105 [Bovada] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jacob deGrom under 6.5 K | TEX vs BOS | 63.2% | +105 [Bovada] | 8 K | MISS |
| Patrick Sandoval under 5.5 K | BOS vs TEX | 63.1% | -135 [Bovada] | 5 K | HIT |
| Jackson Kent over 3.5 K | WSH vs PHI | 62.3% | -110 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Cristopher Sánchez under 6.5 K | PHI vs WSH | 61.9% | +101 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Shane Baz over 4.5 K | BAL vs NYM | 61.4% | +125 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Bailey Ober over 4.5 K | MIN vs NYY | 61.3% | +132 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Jack Perkins under 4.5 K | ATH vs TB | 58.4% | -110 [Fanatics] | 8 K | MISS |
| Lake Bachar over 2.5 K | PIT vs MIL | 58.1% | +146 [BetOnline.ag] | 1 K | MISS |
| Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 K | MIL vs PIT | 57.6% | +135 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Michael Soroka under 4.5 K | AZ vs MIA | 56.8% | -136 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Max Fried under 4.5 K | NYY vs MIN | 56.6% | +155 [Bovada] | 6 K | MISS |
| Janson Junk over 2.5 K | MIA vs AZ | 56.6% | -113 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Foster Griffin over 4.5 K | CLE vs CWS | 56.1% | -132 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Andre Pallante under 3.5 K | STL vs SF | 55.2% | +106 [FanDuel] | 2 K | HIT |
| Ryan Johnson under 4.5 K | LAA vs SEA | 54.8% | -140 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 7.5 K | LAD vs CIN | 53.8% | +100 [MyBookie.ag] | 7 K | HIT |
| Rhett Lowder over 3.5 K | CIN vs LAD | 53.3% | -113 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Logan Gilbert over 6.5 K | SEA vs LAA | 53.3% | -113 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Griffin Jax over 5.5 K | TB vs ATH | 52.9% | +121 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Martín Pérez over 3.5 K | ATL vs CHC | 52.8% | +120 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Sean Manaea under 6.5 K | NYM vs BAL | 52.1% | +115 [Bovada] | 6 K | HIT |
| Kevin Gausman under 5.5 K | CHC vs ATL | 51.7% | +105 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Blade Tidwell over 3.5 K | SF vs STL | 51.7% | +105 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Hunter Brown under 5.5 K | HOU vs KC | 51.4% | +110 [DraftKings] | 10 K | MISS |
| Michael Wacha over 4.5 K | KC vs HOU | 50.3% | -108 [BetOnline.ag] | 2 K | MISS |
| Walker Buehler under 3.5 K | SD vs COL | 50.2% | -120 [BetMGM] | 1 K | HIT |
Mon, Sep 14, 2026
12—7 · 63%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes over 3.5 K | AZ vs MIA | 75.2% | -143 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Gavin Williams under 7.5 K | CLE vs CWS | 72.0% | +125 [Bovada] | 7 K | HIT |
| Jonah Tong under 5.5 K | NYM vs BAL | 69.8% | +112 [FanDuel] | 6 K | MISS |
| Quinn Mathews under 5.5 K | STL vs SF | 69.8% | -139 [BetOnline.ag] | 8 K | MISS |
| Tomoyuki Sugano over 2.5 K | COL vs SD | 67.2% | -160 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| Brandon Young over 3.5 K | BAL vs NYM | 63.3% | -130 [Fanatics] | 6 K | HIT |
| Casey Mize over 3.5 K | SD vs COL | 62.6% | -130 [Fanatics] | 0 K | MISS |
| Troy Melton over 3.5 K | DET vs TOR | 61.8% | +100 [Bovada] | 3 K | MISS |
| Kade Anderson under 5.5 K | SEA vs LAA | 61.0% | +130 [Bovada] | 5 K | HIT |
| Tarik Skubal over 7.5 K | LAD vs CIN | 60.8% | -105 [BetOnline.ag] | 9 K | HIT |
| Reynaldo López over 4.5 K | ATL vs CHC | 60.1% | +130 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Sandy Alcantara over 3.5 K | MIA vs AZ | 57.6% | -110 [Fanatics] | 6 K | HIT |
| Dean Kremer over 4.5 K | MIN vs NYY | 55.3% | +120 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Will Warren over 4.5 K | NYY vs MIN | 54.9% | +118 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Reid Detmers under 6.5 K | LAA vs SEA | 53.4% | +105 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Landen Roupp under 4.5 K | SF vs STL | 52.6% | -120 [Bovada] | 4 K | HIT |
| José Soriano under 5.5 K | TOR vs DET | 52.4% | -105 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| David Peterson over 4.5 K | CHC vs ATL | 51.7% | +125 [BetMGM] | 7 K | HIT |
| Nick Lodolo under 4.5 K | CIN vs LAD | 50.5% | -123 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
Sun, Sep 13, 2026
14—15 · 48%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns over 3.5 K | CIN vs MIL | 82.6% | -145 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Joe Ryan over 4.5 K | MIN vs CLE | 71.8% | +126 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| Tanner Bibee over 3.5 K | CLE vs MIN | 71.5% | +110 [BetMGM] | 7 K | HIT |
| Dylan Cease under 8.5 K | TOR vs BAL | 68.6% | -121 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Freddy Peralta over 4.5 K | TB vs HOU | 68.2% | -115 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Jacob Lopez over 4.5 K | ATH vs SEA | 65.5% | -132 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Payton Tolle under 6.5 K | BOS vs KC | 65.1% | -125 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Gabriel Hughes over 3.5 K | COL vs DET | 64.4% | -143 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| David Sandlin over 3.5 K | CWS vs STL | 64.3% | -160 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Grant Holmes over 3.5 K | ATL vs PHI | 63.3% | -102 [FanDuel] | 0 K | MISS |
| Cam Schlittler under 7.5 K | NYY vs NYM | 62.2% | +105 [Bovada] | 8 K | MISS |
| Grayson Rodriguez over 4.5 K | LAA vs WSH | 61.3% | -125 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Michael McGreevy over 3.5 K | STL vs CWS | 61.3% | -145 [Fanatics] | 6 K | HIT |
| Cal Quantrill under 3.5 K | TEX vs AZ | 57.1% | -102 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Robert Gasser over 4.5 K | MIL vs CIN | 56.5% | -146 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Jackson Jobe under 4.5 K | DET vs COL | 56.1% | -157 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Bubba Chandler under 4.5 K | PIT vs CHC | 55.8% | -121 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Eury Pérez under 5.5 K | MIA vs LAD | 55.7% | -132 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Trevor Rogers under 4.5 K | BAL vs TOR | 55.0% | +107 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Christian Scott over 5.5 K | NYM vs NYY | 54.5% | -114 [BetOnline.ag] | 7 K | HIT |
| Bryce Miller over 4.5 K | SEA vs ATH | 54.3% | +117 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Hayden Wesneski over 3.5 K | HOU vs TB | 53.8% | +110 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Nick Pivetta over 4.5 K | SD vs SF | 53.6% | -106 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Matthew Boyd under 5.5 K | CHC vs PIT | 53.4% | -101 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Eduardo Rodriguez over 4.5 K | AZ vs TEX | 53.3% | -123 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Emmet Sheehan under 5.5 K | LAD vs MIA | 52.4% | +125 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Logan Webb under 4.5 K | SF vs SD | 51.5% | +123 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Andrew Painter over 4.5 K | PHI vs ATL | 50.3% | +220 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Noah Cameron under 4.5 K | KC vs BOS | 50.2% | +132 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
Sat, Sep 12, 2026
15—8 · 65%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow under 7.5 K | LAD vs MIA | 73.1% | -136 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Kyle Bradish over 3.5 K | BAL vs TOR | 72.4% | -115 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Michael King over 4.5 K | SD vs SF | 69.4% | -120 [BetMGM] | 4 K | MISS |
| Tanner Gordon over 3.5 K | COL vs DET | 63.4% | +165 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Peter Lambert under 4.5 K | HOU vs TB | 61.4% | -146 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Connor Prielipp over 4.5 K | MIN vs CLE | 60.3% | +139 [BetOnline.ag] | 1 K | MISS |
| Clay Holmes over 4.5 K | CHC vs PIT | 57.6% | +124 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | HIT |
| Gerrit Cole over 5.5 K | NYY vs NYM | 57.4% | -105 [Fanatics] | 4 K | MISS |
| Brandon Pfaadt over 4.5 K | AZ vs TEX | 57.3% | +124 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Andrew Alvarez under 5.5 K | WSH vs LAA | 57.2% | -134 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Kyle Leahy over 3.5 K | STL vs CWS | 57.0% | +138 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Paul Skenes over 5.5 K | PIT vs CHC | 56.0% | +120 [Fanatics] | 4 K | MISS |
| Kumar Rocker over 3.5 K | TEX vs AZ | 55.3% | -117 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Tyler Phillips under 3.5 K | MIA vs LAD | 55.2% | +118 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | HIT |
| Walbert Ureña over 4.5 K | LAA vs WSH | 54.9% | -113 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Tyler Mahle over 4.5 K | ATL vs PHI | 54.8% | +100 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Bryan Woo under 5.5 K | SEA vs ATH | 54.6% | -119 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Brady Singer over 4.5 K | CIN vs MIL | 53.5% | +140 [Bovada] | 5 K | HIT |
| Gage Jump under 5.5 K | ATH vs SEA | 53.3% | -130 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Ranger Suarez over 4.5 K | BOS vs KC | 53.2% | -128 [FanDuel] | 8 K | HIT |
| Ian Seymour over 5.5 K | TB vs HOU | 52.4% | +110 [BetOnline.ag] | 10 K | HIT |
| Randy Dobnak over 3.5 K | KC vs BOS | 51.9% | +130 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Shane Drohan over 5.5 K | MIL vs CIN | 51.9% | +140 [Bovada] | 4 K | MISS |
Fri, Sep 11, 2026
10—16 · 38%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May under 5.5 K | MIL vs CIN | 74.8% | +110 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Mason Adams over 3.5 K | COL vs DET | 73.6% | -139 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Shota Imanaga under 6.5 K | CHC vs PIT | 72.9% | -140 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jeffrey Springs over 3.5 K | ATH vs SEA | 70.2% | -163 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| Framber Valdez over 4.5 K | DET vs COL | 66.9% | -130 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Matthew Liberatore under 5.5 K | STL vs CWS | 66.0% | -115 [BetMGM] | 2 K | HIT |
| Chris Bassitt over 3.5 K | BAL vs TOR | 65.5% | +122 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | HIT |
| Andrew Abbott over 3.5 K | CIN vs MIL | 64.3% | -142 [DraftKings] | 0 K | MISS |
| George Kirby over 4.5 K | SEA vs ATH | 63.1% | -115 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Carlos Rodón under 5.5 K | NYY vs NYM | 62.4% | -129 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Anthony Molina under 3.5 K | SF vs SD | 61.4% | -103 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Yusei Kikuchi under 5.5 K | LAA vs WSH | 59.2% | -103 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Cade Cavalli under 6.5 K | WSH vs LAA | 58.3% | +120 [Bovada] | 9 K | MISS |
| Ryan Gusto over 3.5 K | MIA vs LAD | 58.1% | +100 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 K | TB vs HOU | 56.7% | +100 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| MacKenzie Gore over 4.5 K | TEX vs AZ | 55.3% | +107 [BetOnline.ag] | 2 K | MISS |
| Seth Lugo under 4.5 K | KC vs BOS | 54.9% | -151 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Anthony Kay over 3.5 K | CWS vs STL | 54.6% | -135 [BetOnline.ag] | 2 K | MISS |
| Aaron Nola under 5.5 K | PHI vs ATL | 53.6% | -114 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Parker Messick under 5.5 K | CLE vs MIN | 53.5% | -135 [Bovada] | 5 K | HIT |
| Nolan McLean over 6.5 K | NYM vs NYY | 53.4% | +112 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Chris Sale under 7.5 K | ATL vs PHI | 53.0% | +103 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Robbie Ray under 4.5 K | SD vs SF | 52.3% | +128 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Taj Bradley under 5.5 K | MIN vs CLE | 51.9% | -126 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Sonny Gray over 5.5 K | BOS vs KC | 51.4% | +126 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Max Scherzer over 5.5 K | TOR vs BAL | 50.6% | +128 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
Thu, Sep 10, 2026
2—7 · 22%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier over 3.5 K | HOU vs PHI | 66.6% | -154 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Max Fried under 5.5 K | NYY vs COL | 64.5% | -115 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Nick Martinez over 3.5 K | TB vs ATL | 62.2% | -113 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Jacob deGrom under 6.5 K | TEX vs SEA | 61.6% | +101 [DraftKings] | 12 K | MISS |
| Logan Gilbert under 6.5 K | SEA vs TEX | 59.8% | +120 [Fanatics] | 11 K | MISS |
| Martín Pérez under 3.5 K | ATL vs TB | 58.4% | -142 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Ryan Feltner over 4.5 K | COL vs NYY | 56.3% | +130 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Zack Wheeler under 6.5 K | PHI vs HOU | 55.0% | +120 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Jared Jones over 5.5 K | PIT vs CWS | 52.5% | -123 [DraftKings] | 8 K | HIT |
Wed, Sep 9, 2026
17—11 · 61%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen over 2.5 K | AZ vs KC | 88.1% | +135 [BetMGM] | 1 K | MISS |
| Griffin Jax over 4.5 K | TB vs ATL | 72.2% | -105 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Kade Anderson under 5.5 K | SEA vs TEX | 71.4% | -146 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Hunter Brown over 4.5 K | HOU vs PHI | 71.1% | -132 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Cody Bradford over 3.5 K | TEX vs SEA | 70.3% | -125 [BetOnline.ag] | 1 K | MISS |
| Blade Tidwell under 4.5 K | SF vs STL | 65.3% | -113 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Lake Bachar over 2.5 K | PIT vs CWS | 65.2% | +124 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | HIT |
| Cristopher Sánchez under 6.5 K | PHI vs HOU | 65.0% | -113 [BetRivers] | 3 K | HIT |
| Reynaldo López over 3.5 K | ATL vs TB | 65.0% | -120 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Jackson Kent over 3.5 K | WSH vs SD | 64.4% | -120 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| Davis Martin under 4.5 K | CWS vs PIT | 63.0% | -104 [FanDuel] | 1 K | HIT |
| Zebby Matthews over 4.5 K | MIN vs DET | 62.3% | +127 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Jake Bennett over 4.5 K | BOS vs LAA | 60.9% | -165 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| Robert Stock under 4.5 K | NYM vs MIA | 58.7% | -125 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Foster Griffin under 5.5 K | CLE vs BAL | 57.9% | -113 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Logan Henderson under 6.5 K | MIL vs CHC | 56.8% | -140 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Will Warren under 5.5 K | NYY vs COL | 56.2% | -140 [BetMGM] | 8 K | MISS |
| Rhett Lowder over 3.5 K | CIN vs LAD | 55.4% | +105 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Ryan Johnson over 3.5 K | LAA vs BOS | 55.3% | +112 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 7.5 K | LAD vs CIN | 55.0% | -110 [BetMGM] | 10 K | MISS |
| Tomoyuki Sugano over 3.5 K | COL vs NYY | 54.2% | -113 [BetRivers] | 5 K | HIT |
| Shane Baz over 4.5 K | BAL vs CLE | 53.2% | +128 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | HIT |
| Walker Buehler over 3.5 K | SD vs WSH | 52.5% | -170 [Bovada] | 4 K | HIT |
| Kevin Gausman under 5.5 K | CHC vs MIL | 52.4% | -105 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Janson Junk under 3.5 K | MIA vs NYM | 52.3% | -125 [BetMGM] | 0 K | HIT |
| Keider Montero over 3.5 K | DET vs MIN | 51.9% | +128 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Andre Pallante under 3.5 K | STL vs SF | 51.6% | -108 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Daniel Lynch IV over 2.5 K | KC vs AZ | 51.6% | +102 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
Tue, Sep 8, 2026
12—17 · 41%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes over 2.5 K | AZ vs KC | 90.1% | +110 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Hayden Wesneski over 3.5 K | HOU vs PHI | 70.3% | -118 [BetRivers] | 3 K | MISS |
| Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 K | MIL vs CHC | 70.2% | -132 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Freddy Peralta over 4.5 K | TB vs ATL | 68.9% | -111 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Quinn Mathews under 5.5 K | STL vs SF | 68.8% | -113 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jack Perkins over 3.5 K | ATH vs TOR | 67.6% | -149 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Nick Lodolo over 3.5 K | CIN vs LAD | 65.9% | -154 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Sean Burke under 6.5 K | CWS vs PIT | 64.6% | -105 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Cal Quantrill under 4.5 K | TEX vs SEA | 63.9% | -108 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Brandon Young over 3.5 K | BAL vs CLE | 63.1% | -130 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Cam Schlittler under 7.5 K | NYY vs COL | 61.3% | +118 [BetOnline.ag] | 10 K | MISS |
| Bryce Miller under 5.5 K | SEA vs TEX | 60.8% | -140 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Casey Mize under 4.5 K | SD vs WSH | 60.5% | +100 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Michael Wacha under 4.5 K | KC vs AZ | 57.1% | -140 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Tarik Skubal under 8.5 K | LAD vs CIN | 56.8% | -122 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Reid Detmers over 5.5 K | LAA vs BOS | 56.4% | -130 [Bovada] | 9 K | HIT |
| AJ Smith-Shawver under 3.5 K | ATL vs TB | 55.9% | +117 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| José Soriano under 5.5 K | TOR vs ATH | 55.8% | -138 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Sean Manaea over 5.5 K | NYM vs MIA | 55.1% | +130 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Patrick Sandoval under 5.5 K | BOS vs LAA | 54.0% | +120 [Bovada] | 7 K | MISS |
| Tanner Bibee over 5.5 K | CLE vs BAL | 53.8% | +130 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| Drew Anderson over 4.5 K | DET vs MIN | 53.3% | +105 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| David Peterson over 4.5 K | CHC vs MIL | 53.2% | +125 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Andrew Painter under 4.5 K | PHI vs HOU | 52.8% | +114 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Sandy Alcantara over 4.5 K | MIA vs NYM | 52.5% | +100 [BetRivers] | 1 K | MISS |
| Bubba Chandler over 4.5 K | PIT vs CWS | 52.0% | +110 [DraftKings] | 8 K | HIT |
| Landen Roupp under 4.5 K | SF vs STL | 51.6% | +134 [BetOnline.ag] | 2 K | HIT |
| Dean Kremer over 4.5 K | MIN vs DET | 51.1% | +105 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Gabriel Hughes over 4.5 K | COL vs NYY | 50.8% | +133 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
Mon, Sep 7, 2026
11—9 · 55%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan over 3.5 K | MIN vs DET | 89.8% | -103 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Chase Burns over 4.5 K | CIN vs LAD | 72.2% | -110 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Logan Webb under 5.5 K | SF vs STL | 69.3% | -154 [BetOnline.ag] | 8 K | MISS |
| Jesús Luzardo under 7.5 K | PHI vs ATL | 65.0% | -145 [DraftKings] | 12 K | MISS |
| Jonah Tong under 4.5 K | NYM vs MIA | 64.2% | +106 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Dylan Cease under 7.5 K | TOR vs ATH | 62.3% | -110 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Grant Holmes over 3.5 K | ATL vs PHI | 62.2% | +111 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Noah Cameron over 3.5 K | KC vs AZ | 61.7% | -148 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Jake Irvin under 4.5 K | WSH vs SD | 60.9% | -130 [Fanatics] | 3 K | HIT |
| Nick Pivetta over 4.5 K | SD vs WSH | 60.6% | -105 [BetOnline.ag] | 2 K | MISS |
| Grayson Rodriguez over 4.5 K | LAA vs BOS | 58.8% | -108 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Robert Gasser under 4.5 K | MIL vs CHC | 57.9% | -131 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Matthew Boyd over 4.5 K | CHC vs MIL | 54.4% | +132 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Michael McGreevy over 3.5 K | STL vs SF | 52.5% | +115 [Bovada] | 4 K | HIT |
| Eury Pérez over 5.5 K | MIA vs NYM | 52.4% | -113 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Brayan Bello over 4.5 K | BOS vs LAA | 52.3% | -101 [BetOnline.ag] | 7 K | HIT |
| Jacob Lopez over 4.5 K | ATH vs TOR | 52.3% | +115 [Bovada] | 1 K | MISS |
| Troy Melton under 4.5 K | DET vs MIN | 51.5% | -142 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Joey Cantillo under 5.5 K | CLE vs BAL | 50.5% | +122 [FanDuel] | 3 K | HIT |
| Trevor Rogers under 4.5 K | BAL vs CLE | 50.5% | +109 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
Sun, Sep 6, 2026
13—15 · 46%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams under 7.5 K | CLE vs DET | 77.9% | +124 [FanDuel] | 11 K | MISS |
| Bailey Ober over 3.5 K | MIN vs CWS | 76.4% | -137 [BetRivers] | 6 K | HIT |
| Kyle Leahy over 2.5 K | STL vs COL | 76.3% | +112 [BetRivers] | 6 K | HIT |
| Bryan Woo under 6.5 K | SEA vs ATH | 70.9% | +115 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Randy Dobnak over 2.5 K | KC vs TOR | 68.5% | -109 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | HIT |
| Kyle Bradish over 4.5 K | BAL vs BOS | 65.1% | -145 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Michael King over 5.5 K | SD vs NYY | 64.9% | -110 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| MacKenzie Gore under 5.5 K | TEX vs TB | 63.9% | -157 [DraftKings] | 1 K | HIT |
| Spencer Arrighetti over 3.5 K | TOR vs KC | 63.8% | -108 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Andrew Alvarez over 3.5 K | WSH vs LAD | 62.7% | -111 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Ian Seymour over 5.5 K | TB vs TEX | 62.4% | -130 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| Kyle Harrison under 6.5 K | MIL vs CIN | 62.2% | +105 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Peter Lambert under 4.5 K | HOU vs AZ | 60.3% | +100 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Walbert Ureña over 4.5 K | LAA vs PIT | 57.4% | -156 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Paul Skenes over 6.5 K | PIT vs LAA | 56.6% | +100 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Christian Scott under 5.5 K | NYM vs SF | 56.4% | +137 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Tanner Gordon over 3.5 K | COL vs STL | 56.1% | -165 [BetRivers] | 4 K | HIT |
| Gerrit Cole over 5.5 K | NYY vs SD | 55.9% | +115 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Brady Singer over 4.5 K | CIN vs MIL | 54.9% | +115 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Aaron Nola under 5.5 K | PHI vs ATL | 54.8% | +116 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Tyler Mahle over 4.5 K | ATL vs PHI | 54.6% | +102 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Payton Tolle under 6.5 K | BOS vs BAL | 53.9% | +136 [FanDuel] | 12 K | MISS |
| Clay Holmes under 4.5 K | CHC vs MIA | 52.7% | -104 [FanDuel] | 2 K | HIT |
| Jackson Jobe over 3.5 K | DET vs CLE | 52.6% | -111 [BetOnline.ag] | 7 K | HIT |
| Tyler Phillips under 3.5 K | MIA vs CHC | 51.6% | +126 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Justin Wrobleski over 4.5 K | LAD vs WSH | 51.6% | +120 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | HIT |
| Eduardo Rodriguez over 4.5 K | AZ vs HOU | 51.0% | +123 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Gage Jump under 5.5 K | ATH vs SEA | 50.1% | +100 [FanDuel] | 7 K | MISS |
Sat, Sep 5, 2026
1—1 · 50%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby under 5.5 K | SEA vs ATH | 57.9% | -120 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Jeffrey Springs under 4.5 K | ATH vs SEA | 57.6% | -153 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
Fri, Sep 4, 2026
15—12 · 56%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante over 2.5 K | STL vs COL | 75.6% | -155 [BetRivers] | 1 K | MISS |
| Blake Snell under 7.5 K | LAD vs WSH | 67.4% | +120 [BetOnline.ag] | 7 K | HIT |
| Zebby Matthews over 4.5 K | MIN vs CWS | 67.3% | +101 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Cristopher Sánchez under 6.5 K | PHI vs ATL | 66.4% | -106 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Cristian Javier under 4.5 K | HOU vs AZ | 65.5% | -148 [BetRivers] | 8 K | MISS |
| Shota Imanaga under 5.5 K | CHC vs MIA | 64.7% | -145 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jameson Taillon over 2.5 K | TOR vs KC | 64.4% | -129 [BetRivers] | 1 K | MISS |
| Logan Allen over 3.5 K | CLE vs DET | 64.2% | +137 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| Nick Martinez over 3.5 K | TB vs TEX | 63.9% | +112 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Ryan Johnson over 3.5 K | LAA vs PIT | 62.1% | -106 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Ryan Feltner over 3.5 K | COL vs STL | 62.1% | -138 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Nolan McLean under 6.5 K | NYM vs SF | 61.1% | -148 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Jackson Kent over 3.5 K | WSH vs LAD | 60.9% | -105 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Rhett Lowder over 3.5 K | CIN vs MIL | 60.0% | -140 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| Erick Fedde under 3.5 K | CWS vs MIN | 59.0% | -164 [BetOnline.ag] | 2 K | HIT |
| Logan Gilbert under 6.5 K | SEA vs ATH | 58.8% | -103 [DraftKings] | 10 K | MISS |
| Janson Junk under 3.5 K | MIA vs CHC | 58.6% | -132 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Chris Sale over 6.5 K | ATL vs PHI | 58.3% | +100 [BetOnline.ag] | 7 K | HIT |
| Walker Buehler under 4.5 K | SD vs NYY | 57.9% | -115 [FanDuel] | 6 K | MISS |
| Ranger Suarez under 5.5 K | BOS vs BAL | 56.6% | -111 [FanDuel] | 3 K | HIT |
| Jared Jones over 5.5 K | PIT vs LAA | 55.5% | -125 [FanDuel] | 9 K | HIT |
| Max Fried under 4.5 K | NYY vs SD | 54.8% | +100 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Daniel Lynch IV under 2.5 K | KC vs TOR | 54.7% | -137 [BetOnline.ag] | 0 K | HIT |
| Shane Baz over 4.5 K | BAL vs BOS | 54.3% | -139 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | HIT |
| Keider Montero over 3.5 K | DET vs CLE | 53.7% | -145 [Fanatics] | 4 K | HIT |
| Shane Drohan over 5.5 K | MIL vs CIN | 53.1% | +116 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Merrill Kelly over 4.5 K | AZ vs HOU | 51.7% | +125 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
Thu, Sep 3, 2026
6—9 · 40%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Soriano over 3.5 K | TOR vs CLE | 73.2% | -154 [BetOnline.ag] | 2 K | MISS |
| Sandy Alcantara over 3.5 K | MIA vs KC | 66.0% | -120 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Tarik Skubal under 7.5 K | LAD vs STL | 64.7% | +121 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Cal Quantrill under 3.5 K | TEX vs TB | 61.7% | -135 [BetMGM] | 5 K | MISS |
| Brandon Young over 3.5 K | BAL vs BOS | 58.8% | -147 [BetOnline.ag] | 7 K | HIT |
| Logan Henderson over 5.5 K | MIL vs CHC | 58.7% | +100 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Jake Bennett over 4.5 K | BOS vs BAL | 56.5% | -130 [Fanatics] | 7 K | HIT |
| Hunter Brown under 6.5 K | HOU vs CWS | 55.4% | -120 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Kevin Gausman under 5.5 K | CHC vs MIL | 54.0% | -110 [BetMGM] | 9 K | MISS |
| Shane McClanahan under 4.5 K | TB vs TEX | 53.6% | +110 [Bovada] | 3 K | HIT |
| Quinn Mathews under 4.5 K | STL vs LAD | 53.4% | -102 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jack Perkins under 5.5 K | ATH vs SEA | 52.3% | -119 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Tanner Bibee over 4.5 K | CLE vs TOR | 52.1% | +135 [BetMGM] | 4 K | MISS |
| Luis Castillo over 4.5 K | CWS vs HOU | 51.1% | +110 [Bovada] | 3 K | MISS |
| Michael Wacha under 4.5 K | KC vs MIA | 50.4% | +118 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
Wed, Sep 2, 2026
13—13 · 50%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax over 4.5 K | TB vs NYM | 78.1% | +105 [Fanatics] | 1 K | MISS |
| Brandon Williamson over 2.5 K | CIN vs SD | 76.8% | +100 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Casey Mize over 3.5 K | SD vs CIN | 71.9% | -150 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Trevor Rogers under 5.5 K | BAL vs COL | 65.7% | -130 [Fanatics] | 11 K | MISS |
| Landen Roupp over 4.5 K | SF vs PIT | 64.7% | -145 [Fanatics] | 4 K | MISS |
| Eury Pérez over 4.5 K | MIA vs KC | 62.6% | -140 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 6.5 K | LAD vs STL | 59.6% | +116 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Patrick Sandoval under 5.5 K | BOS vs SEA | 58.7% | -130 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Cam Schlittler under 7.5 K | NYY vs LAA | 58.2% | +115 [BetMGM] | 9 K | MISS |
| Hayden Wesneski over 4.5 K | HOU vs CWS | 57.3% | -143 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Bubba Chandler under 4.5 K | PIT vs SF | 56.2% | -125 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jacob Lopez under 5.5 K | ATH vs TEX | 54.9% | -120 [FanDuel] | 7 K | MISS |
| Joey Cantillo under 4.5 K | CLE vs TOR | 54.9% | -113 [FanDuel] | 6 K | MISS |
| Noah Cameron over 4.5 K | KC vs MIA | 53.9% | -117 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| David Peterson over 4.5 K | CHC vs MIL | 53.9% | +120 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Jacob Misiorowski under 7.5 K | MIL vs CHC | 53.7% | +105 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Andrew Painter over 3.5 K | PHI vs AZ | 53.1% | -140 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Drew Anderson under 4.5 K | DET vs MIN | 52.9% | -160 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Bryce Miller over 4.5 K | SEA vs BOS | 51.5% | +120 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Tomoyuki Sugano over 3.5 K | COL vs BAL | 51.1% | -102 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Davis Martin under 3.5 K | CWS vs HOU | 51.1% | -125 [BetMGM] | 3 K | HIT |
| Reid Detmers under 6.5 K | LAA vs NYY | 51.0% | -103 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Dean Kremer under 4.5 K | MIN vs DET | 50.8% | -130 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Dylan Cease under 6.5 K | TOR vs CLE | 50.7% | -106 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Grant Holmes under 4.5 K | ATL vs WSH | 50.3% | -145 [BetMGM] | 1 K | HIT |
| Cody Bradford under 4.5 K | TEX vs ATH | 50.3% | -140 [BetMGM] | 3 K | HIT |
Tue, Sep 1, 2026
11—15 · 42%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams under 6.5 K | CLE vs TOR | 81.1% | -143 [DraftKings] | 13 K | MISS |
| Freddy Peralta over 4.5 K | TB vs NYM | 70.2% | -118 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Logan Webb over 4.5 K | SF vs PIT | 65.5% | -142 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| AJ Smith-Shawver under 4.5 K | ATL vs WSH | 65.2% | -143 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Kyle Bradish over 4.5 K | BAL vs COL | 64.9% | -113 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Robert Gasser over 3.5 K | MIL vs CHC | 63.6% | -152 [BetRivers] | 4 K | HIT |
| MacKenzie Gore under 6.5 K | TEX vs ATH | 63.1% | -118 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Ronel Blanco over 4.5 K | HOU vs CWS | 61.7% | -106 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Paul Skenes under 6.5 K | PIT vs SF | 61.2% | -125 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jake Irvin under 4.5 K | WSH vs ATL | 60.6% | -130 [Fanatics] | 5 K | MISS |
| Sean Burke under 5.5 K | CWS vs HOU | 60.5% | -118 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Eric Lauer over 3.5 K | LAD vs STL | 59.2% | -130 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| Randy Vásquez under 3.5 K | SD vs CIN | 59.0% | +135 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Sean Manaea over 4.5 K | NYM vs TB | 58.6% | +100 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Matthew Boyd over 4.5 K | CHC vs MIL | 57.9% | +129 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Jesús Luzardo over 5.5 K | PHI vs AZ | 55.3% | -132 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Bryan Woo over 4.5 K | SEA vs BOS | 55.2% | -120 [Fanatics] | 7 K | HIT |
| Eduardo Rodriguez over 4.5 K | AZ vs PHI | 55.1% | +132 [BetRivers] | 3 K | MISS |
| Grayson Rodriguez over 5.5 K | LAA vs NYY | 53.9% | +128 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Gerrit Cole over 6.5 K | NYY vs LAA | 52.8% | -102 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Michael McGreevy under 3.5 K | STL vs LAD | 52.5% | -132 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Randy Dobnak over 3.5 K | KC vs MIA | 52.1% | +110 [Bovada] | 6 K | HIT |
| Tyler Phillips under 3.5 K | MIA vs KC | 52.0% | +120 [Fanatics] | 4 K | MISS |
| Troy Melton under 4.5 K | DET vs MIN | 51.0% | -137 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Gabriel Hughes over 4.5 K | COL vs BAL | 50.6% | +130 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Nick Lodolo over 4.5 K | CIN vs SD | 50.2% | +113 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
Mon, Aug 31, 2026
10—12 · 45%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt over 3.5 K | AZ vs PHI | 72.2% | -115 [BetRivers] | 1 K | MISS |
| Jacob deGrom under 6.5 K | TEX vs ATH | 66.8% | +112 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Michael King over 5.5 K | SD vs CIN | 65.4% | -120 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | HIT |
| Kyle Harrison under 5.5 K | MIL vs CHC | 64.0% | -128 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Peter Lambert under 5.5 K | HOU vs CWS | 63.8% | -120 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Walbert Ureña under 5.5 K | LAA vs NYY | 62.8% | -122 [FanDuel] | 8 K | MISS |
| Ian Seymour under 6.5 K | TB vs NYM | 61.4% | -142 [FanDuel] | 10 K | MISS |
| Ryan Gusto over 3.5 K | MIA vs WSH | 60.5% | -115 [Fanatics] | 4 K | HIT |
| Anthony Kay under 4.5 K | CWS vs HOU | 57.6% | -142 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| George Kirby over 4.5 K | SEA vs BOS | 57.0% | -110 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Payton Tolle under 6.5 K | BOS vs SEA | 56.8% | +140 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Brady Singer over 4.5 K | CIN vs SD | 56.4% | +127 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Taj Bradley over 5.5 K | MIN vs DET | 55.8% | -102 [FanDuel] | 9 K | HIT |
| Cade Povich under 4.5 K | BAL vs COL | 55.8% | -110 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Bryce Elder under 4.5 K | ATL vs SF | 54.9% | -135 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | HIT |
| Clay Holmes under 4.5 K | CHC vs MIL | 54.7% | -150 [Fanatics] | 8 K | MISS |
| Aaron Nola over 4.5 K | PHI vs AZ | 53.2% | -102 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Elmer Rodríguez under 4.5 K | NYY vs LAA | 52.9% | -103 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | MISS |
| Tanner Gordon over 4.5 K | COL vs BAL | 52.7% | +108 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Jackson Jobe over 3.5 K | DET vs MIN | 51.9% | +105 [Fanatics] | 4 K | HIT |
| Robert Stock under 3.5 K | NYM vs TB | 51.8% | +115 [BetMGM] | 4 K | MISS |
| Gage Jump under 5.5 K | ATH vs TEX | 50.2% | -108 [FanDuel] | 2 K | HIT |
Sun, Aug 30, 2026
12—12 · 50%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo over 3.5 K | KC vs CLE | 67.2% | -110 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Matthew Liberatore under 5.5 K | STL vs PIT | 65.7% | +118 [BetOnline.ag] | 9 K | MISS |
| Janson Junk over 2.5 K | MIA vs WSH | 65.6% | -148 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Dustin May under 4.5 K | MIL vs TEX | 64.9% | +119 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Zack Wheeler under 7.5 K | PHI vs LAA | 64.3% | -118 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Zebby Matthews over 4.5 K | MIN vs CWS | 64.0% | -134 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Yusei Kikuchi under 5.5 K | LAA vs PHI | 63.8% | -105 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Logan Gilbert over 4.5 K | SEA vs TOR | 63.4% | +130 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Robbie Ray over 3.5 K | SD vs TB | 61.6% | -142 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Tyler Mahle under 5.5 K | ATL vs COL | 61.3% | +110 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Max Scherzer over 4.5 K | TOR vs SEA | 61.1% | +114 [DraftKings] | 10 K | HIT |
| Framber Valdez over 4.5 K | DET vs LAD | 60.9% | +132 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | HIT |
| Ranger Suarez under 5.5 K | BOS vs NYY | 59.1% | -125 [BetMGM] | 2 K | HIT |
| Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 K | TB vs SD | 58.3% | -129 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Parker Messick under 5.5 K | CLE vs KC | 58.2% | +138 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Braxton Ashcraft under 5.5 K | PIT vs STL | 57.6% | -137 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Chase Burns under 6.5 K | CIN vs CHC | 57.3% | -141 [BetRivers] | 7 K | MISS |
| Tyler Glasnow under 6.5 K | LAD vs DET | 56.1% | -115 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Jeffrey Springs under 4.5 K | ATH vs BAL | 54.9% | -105 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Will Warren over 4.5 K | NYY vs BOS | 53.0% | -115 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Shota Imanaga under 5.5 K | CHC vs CIN | 52.4% | +125 [Fanatics] | 4 K | HIT |
| Chris Bassitt over 4.5 K | BAL vs ATH | 52.3% | +119 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Andrew Alvarez under 4.5 K | WSH vs MIA | 52.2% | -150 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Kumar Rocker under 4.5 K | TEX vs MIL | 51.5% | +102 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
Sat, Aug 29, 2026
12—15 · 44%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober over 3.5 K | MIN vs CWS | 78.0% | -164 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | HIT |
| Andrew Abbott over 3.5 K | CIN vs CHC | 72.0% | -135 [Bovada] | 1 K | MISS |
| Foster Griffin under 5.5 K | CLE vs KC | 69.0% | -111 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Martín Pérez under 4.5 K | ATL vs COL | 69.0% | -107 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Cade Cavalli under 6.5 K | WSH vs MIA | 68.7% | -128 [FanDuel] | 8 K | MISS |
| Cristopher Sánchez under 7.5 K | PHI vs LAA | 68.0% | +115 [Bovada] | 8 K | MISS |
| Kyle Leahy over 3.5 K | STL vs PIT | 67.7% | -147 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Carlos Rodón under 5.5 K | NYY vs BOS | 64.1% | -123 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Erick Fedde over 2.5 K | CWS vs MIN | 62.6% | +100 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Nick Martinez over 3.5 K | TB vs SD | 60.4% | +121 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jake Bennett over 4.5 K | BOS vs NYY | 59.1% | -110 [BetRivers] | 7 K | HIT |
| Walker Buehler under 3.5 K | SD vs TB | 59.1% | -129 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| José Soriano under 5.5 K | TOR vs SEA | 59.0% | -123 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Nolan McLean over 5.5 K | NYM vs HOU | 57.6% | -122 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Ryan Johnson over 3.5 K | LAA vs PHI | 57.4% | +106 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Shane Baz under 5.5 K | BAL vs ATH | 57.3% | -155 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Max Fried under 4.5 K | NYY vs BOS | 56.4% | +105 [Bovada] | 4 K | HIT |
| Shane Drohan under 5.5 K | MIL vs TEX | 54.9% | -113 [FanDuel] | 6 K | MISS |
| Kevin Gausman under 6.5 K | CHC vs CIN | 53.8% | -128 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Cal Quantrill under 3.5 K | TEX vs MIL | 53.7% | +125 [Fanatics] | 8 K | MISS |
| Keider Montero over 3.5 K | DET vs LAD | 52.8% | -105 [Fanatics] | 3 K | MISS |
| Blake Snell over 6.5 K | LAD vs DET | 51.5% | -120 [FanDuel] | 10 K | HIT |
| Jack Perkins over 5.5 K | ATH vs BAL | 51.5% | -115 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Daniel Lynch IV under 2.5 K | KC vs CLE | 51.4% | -102 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Sandy Alcantara under 4.5 K | MIA vs WSH | 51.2% | -128 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Mitch Bratt under 3.5 K | AZ vs SF | 51.1% | -104 [FanDuel] | 2 K | HIT |
| Merrill Kelly under 4.5 K | AZ vs SF | 50.1% | -149 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
Fri, Aug 28, 2026
16—14 · 53%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo over 3.5 K | CWS vs MIN | 70.7% | -148 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| David Peterson over 4.5 K | CHC vs CIN | 66.4% | -138 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Jackson Kent over 3.5 K | WSH vs MIA | 65.7% | +115 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Michael Wacha over 3.5 K | KC vs CLE | 65.1% | -145 [Fanatics] | 10 K | HIT |
| Tomoyuki Sugano over 2.5 K | COL vs ATL | 64.7% | -175 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Cody Bradford over 3.5 K | TEX vs MIL | 64.5% | -109 [DraftKings] | 0 K | MISS |
| Jacob Lopez under 6.5 K | ATH vs BAL | 63.6% | -126 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Andrew Painter under 5.5 K | PHI vs LAA | 63.5% | -125 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Dean Kremer under 5.5 K | MIN vs CWS | 62.5% | -128 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Reid Detmers under 6.5 K | LAA vs PHI | 61.6% | -102 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Rhett Lowder over 3.5 K | CIN vs CHC | 61.2% | -140 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Quinn Mathews under 5.5 K | STL vs PIT | 61.1% | -114 [BetRivers] | 7 K | MISS |
| Cam Schlittler under 6.5 K | NYY vs BOS | 60.4% | +115 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Tarik Skubal over 6.5 K | LAD vs DET | 59.9% | -140 [Fanatics] | 7 K | HIT |
| Drew Anderson under 4.5 K | DET vs LAD | 59.7% | -116 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Tanner Bibee over 4.5 K | CLE vs KC | 58.6% | -105 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Emerson Hancock over 3.5 K | SEA vs TOR | 58.5% | -114 [BetOnline.ag] | 1 K | MISS |
| Brandon Young under 4.5 K | BAL vs ATH | 56.9% | -135 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Dylan Cease under 7.5 K | TOR vs SEA | 56.4% | +113 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Jared Jones over 4.5 K | PIT vs STL | 56.3% | -130 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Shane McClanahan under 4.5 K | TB vs SD | 55.9% | -115 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Patrick Sandoval under 5.5 K | BOS vs NYY | 54.9% | -102 [FanDuel] | 7 K | MISS |
| Blade Tidwell under 3.5 K | SF vs AZ | 54.8% | +112 [BetRivers] | 4 K | MISS |
| Hunter Brown over 5.5 K | HOU vs NYM | 54.2% | +128 [FanDuel] | 10 K | HIT |
| Kohl Drake over 3.5 K | AZ vs SF | 54.0% | -117 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Grant Holmes over 4.5 K | ATL vs COL | 53.5% | -105 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Eury Pérez over 5.5 K | MIA vs WSH | 53.4% | +100 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Logan Henderson under 6.5 K | MIL vs TEX | 52.8% | -110 [BetOnline.ag] | 7 K | MISS |
| Christian Scott under 5.5 K | NYM vs HOU | 52.1% | +126 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Casey Mize under 3.5 K | SD vs TB | 51.7% | +125 [Fanatics] | 1 K | HIT |
Mon, Aug 24, 2026
6—6 · 50%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez under 5.5 K | BOS vs MIA | 74.2% | -160 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Framber Valdez over 3.5 K | DET vs TB | 70.9% | -126 [DraftKings] | 0 K | MISS |
| Cade Cavalli under 6.5 K | WSH vs COL | 64.2% | -158 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Zack Wheeler under 6.5 K | PHI vs SEA | 63.6% | -110 [Bovada] | 4 K | HIT |
| Drew Rasmussen over 4.5 K | TB vs DET | 63.5% | -150 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Ryan Feltner over 3.5 K | COL vs WSH | 62.3% | -150 [Fanatics] | 6 K | HIT |
| Logan Gilbert over 5.5 K | SEA vs PHI | 60.2% | +100 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Zebby Matthews over 4.5 K | MIN vs ATH | 56.0% | +100 [Fanatics] | 7 K | HIT |
| Jeffrey Springs over 3.5 K | ATH vs MIN | 54.5% | +101 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Sandy Alcantara under 4.5 K | MIA vs BOS | 53.1% | +102 [FanDuel] | 6 K | MISS |
| Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 K | PIT vs SD | 50.9% | +105 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Robbie Ray under 5.5 K | SD vs PIT | 50.8% | -108 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
Sun, Aug 23, 2026
14—11 · 56%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober over 3.5 K | MIN vs SD | 72.2% | +110 [Bovada] | 3 K | MISS |
| Cristopher Sánchez under 6.5 K | PHI vs STL | 71.3% | +114 [FanDuel] | 7 K | MISS |
| Nick Martinez over 3.5 K | TB vs BAL | 69.6% | -122 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Blake Snell under 8.5 K | LAD vs PIT | 68.5% | -110 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Tyler Mahle under 5.5 K | ATL vs MIL | 66.9% | -140 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Tomoyuki Sugano over 2.5 K | COL vs CLE | 66.6% | +105 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Mitch Bratt over 3.5 K | AZ vs CIN | 66.5% | -147 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Carlos Rodón under 5.5 K | NYY vs TOR | 65.7% | -139 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Kyle Leahy over 3.5 K | STL vs PHI | 65.6% | +100 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Cristian Javier under 4.5 K | HOU vs ATH | 62.5% | +103 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Andrew Abbott over 3.5 K | CIN vs AZ | 62.3% | +126 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Shane Drohan over 4.5 K | MIL vs ATL | 59.1% | +106 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Foster Griffin over 4.5 K | CLE vs COL | 57.6% | -123 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Cal Quantrill over 3.5 K | TEX vs LAA | 57.4% | -125 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Lake Bachar over 2.5 K | PIT vs LAD | 56.7% | +140 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| Shane Baz under 4.5 K | BAL vs TB | 56.1% | -125 [BetMGM] | 3 K | HIT |
| Yusei Kikuchi over 4.5 K | LAA vs TEX | 56.0% | -110 [BetMGM] | 4 K | MISS |
| Shota Imanaga under 5.5 K | CHC vs SEA | 55.4% | -105 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jake Bennett under 4.5 K | BOS vs SF | 55.0% | +112 [BetRivers] | 6 K | MISS |
| Bryce Miller over 4.5 K | SEA vs CHC | 54.6% | -150 [BetRivers] | 5 K | HIT |
| Janson Junk under 3.5 K | MIA vs WSH | 53.6% | -120 [BetMGM] | 2 K | HIT |
| Daniel Lynch IV under 2.5 K | KC vs DET | 53.6% | +104 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| José Soriano under 5.5 K | TOR vs NYY | 53.3% | -125 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Nolan McLean over 6.5 K | NYM vs CWS | 53.1% | +116 [FanDuel] | 6 K | MISS |
| Walker Buehler over 3.5 K | SD vs MIN | 51.6% | +105 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
Sat, Aug 22, 2026
19—9 · 68%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers under 5.5 K | NYY vs TOR | 69.6% | -118 [BetRivers] | 3 K | HIT |
| Patrick Sandoval under 5.5 K | BOS vs SF | 68.5% | +121 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Jake Irvin under 4.5 K | WSH vs MIA | 67.2% | -105 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Tanner Bibee over 4.5 K | CLE vs COL | 67.1% | +102 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Luis Castillo over 4.5 K | CWS vs NYM | 63.8% | -113 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Gabriel Hughes over 3.5 K | COL vs CLE | 63.6% | +146 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Hunter Brown under 6.5 K | HOU vs ATH | 63.0% | -137 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Christian Scott under 6.5 K | NYM vs CWS | 62.6% | +125 [Fanatics] | 6 K | HIT |
| Cody Bradford over 4.5 K | TEX vs LAA | 61.7% | -120 [Fanatics] | 3 K | MISS |
| Tarik Skubal under 8.5 K | LAD vs PIT | 60.9% | -120 [DraftKings] | 11 K | MISS |
| Dylan Cease under 8.5 K | TOR vs NYY | 60.8% | +106 [DraftKings] | 8 K | HIT |
| Drew Anderson under 4.5 K | DET vs KC | 59.6% | -154 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Ryan Johnson over 3.5 K | LAA vs TEX | 59.0% | +130 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Casey Mize under 4.5 K | SD vs MIN | 58.6% | +106 [FanDuel] | 0 K | HIT |
| Logan Henderson under 6.5 K | MIL vs ATL | 58.1% | -111 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Michael Soroka under 5.5 K | AZ vs CIN | 57.6% | +124 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| David Peterson over 4.5 K | CHC vs SEA | 57.6% | +123 [BetRivers] | 8 K | HIT |
| Eury Pérez under 6.5 K | MIA vs WSH | 57.5% | +106 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jacob Lopez over 4.5 K | ATH vs HOU | 56.5% | -107 [DraftKings] | 9 K | HIT |
| Jared Jones over 4.5 K | PIT vs LAD | 56.4% | -118 [BetRivers] | 5 K | HIT |
| Shane McClanahan over 4.5 K | TB vs BAL | 54.6% | +110 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Andrew Painter under 3.5 K | PHI vs STL | 51.4% | +134 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Brandon Young over 3.5 K | BAL vs TB | 51.1% | -125 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Blade Tidwell over 3.5 K | SF vs BOS | 50.8% | -113 [BetRivers] | 7 K | HIT |
| Michael Wacha over 4.5 K | KC vs DET | 50.7% | +125 [BetRivers] | 6 K | HIT |
| Martín Pérez under 3.5 K | ATL vs MIL | 50.6% | +100 [BetMGM] | 2 K | HIT |
| Rhett Lowder over 3.5 K | CIN vs AZ | 50.6% | +105 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| Dean Kremer over 4.5 K | MIN vs SD | 50.4% | +112 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
Fri, Aug 21, 2026
12—16 · 43%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Vásquez under 3.5 K | SD vs MIN | 71.9% | -154 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Matthew Boyd over 4.5 K | CHC vs SEA | 69.0% | -130 [Fanatics] | 3 K | MISS |
| Sean Burke under 6.5 K | CWS vs NYM | 68.5% | -135 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Hunter Dobbins over 3.5 K | STL vs PHI | 68.0% | -125 [BetRivers] | 3 K | MISS |
| Jesús Luzardo under 7.5 K | PHI vs STL | 67.4% | -122 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Cam Schlittler under 6.5 K | NYY vs TOR | 65.9% | +103 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Chris Sale under 7.5 K | ATL vs MIL | 65.2% | -105 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Joey Cantillo under 5.5 K | CLE vs COL | 64.4% | +100 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Brad Lord over 2.5 K | WSH vs MIA | 62.9% | -104 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| Sean Manaea over 5.5 K | NYM vs CWS | 62.5% | -130 [Fanatics] | 4 K | MISS |
| Nick Lodolo over 3.5 K | CIN vs AZ | 62.4% | -118 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Trevor Rogers under 4.5 K | BAL vs TB | 61.9% | -103 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Reid Detmers under 6.5 K | LAA vs TEX | 61.9% | -116 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Connor Prielipp under 5.5 K | MIN vs SD | 60.9% | -140 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Freddy Peralta over 5.5 K | TB vs BAL | 59.4% | +120 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Ryan Gusto under 4.5 K | MIA vs WSH | 59.1% | -140 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Bubba Chandler under 4.5 K | PIT vs LAD | 58.9% | +100 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| J.T. Ginn over 4.5 K | ATH vs HOU | 57.8% | -103 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 7.5 K | LAD vs PIT | 57.4% | -140 [BetMGM] | 9 K | MISS |
| Logan Webb over 4.5 K | SF vs BOS | 57.4% | +135 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Tanner Gordon over 3.5 K | COL vs CLE | 56.3% | +140 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Noah Cameron under 5.5 K | KC vs DET | 55.7% | -112 [BetRivers] | 2 K | HIT |
| Hayden Wesneski over 4.5 K | HOU vs ATH | 54.9% | -108 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Sonny Gray over 5.5 K | BOS vs SF | 54.6% | +107 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Emerson Hancock under 4.5 K | SEA vs CHC | 53.6% | +126 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Eduardo Rodriguez over 5.5 K | AZ vs CIN | 53.2% | +126 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Troy Melton under 4.5 K | DET vs KC | 51.0% | -113 [FanDuel] | 3 K | HIT |
| MacKenzie Gore over 6.5 K | TEX vs LAA | 50.6% | -116 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
Thu, Aug 20, 2026
7—11 · 39%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams under 7.5 K | CLE vs SF | 81.6% | -105 [DraftKings] | 11 K | MISS |
| Robert Gasser under 5.5 K | MIL vs SEA | 69.0% | -140 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Ian Seymour under 5.5 K | TB vs TOR | 60.6% | -117 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Anthony Kay under 4.5 K | CWS vs ATL | 59.5% | -130 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Gage Jump over 4.5 K | ATH vs KC | 59.3% | -140 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Michael McGreevy under 4.5 K | STL vs CIN | 58.6% | -105 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Grant Holmes over 4.5 K | ATL vs CWS | 57.8% | +125 [BetRivers] | 3 K | MISS |
| Peter Lambert under 5.5 K | HOU vs LAA | 57.3% | -104 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Kyle Bradish over 5.5 K | BAL vs NYY | 55.3% | -129 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Andrew Alvarez over 4.5 K | WSH vs TEX | 54.4% | +116 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Shane Bieber over 3.5 K | TOR vs TB | 54.1% | -113 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Grayson Rodriguez over 4.5 K | LAA vs HOU | 53.5% | -111 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| George Kirby over 4.5 K | SEA vs MIL | 53.2% | -130 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Landen Roupp over 4.5 K | SF vs CLE | 52.6% | +125 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Randy Dobnak over 3.5 K | KC vs ATH | 52.3% | +124 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jacob deGrom under 5.5 K | TEX vs WSH | 52.3% | +134 [FanDuel] | 10 K | MISS |
| Brady Singer over 4.5 K | CIN vs STL | 50.4% | +120 [Fanatics] | 3 K | MISS |
| Gerrit Cole under 6.5 K | NYY vs BAL | 50.4% | +100 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
Wed, Aug 19, 2026
14—13 · 52%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick under 6.5 K | CLE vs SF | 72.2% | -115 [DraftKings] | 10 K | MISS |
| Michael King over 4.5 K | SD vs NYM | 71.9% | -144 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Brandon Pfaadt over 3.5 K | AZ vs BOS | 70.9% | -112 [DraftKings] | 8 K | HIT |
| Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 K | TB vs TOR | 65.1% | +130 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Matthew Liberatore under 5.5 K | STL vs CIN | 64.2% | -103 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Chase Burns under 6.5 K | CIN vs STL | 62.1% | -130 [BetMGM] | 8 K | MISS |
| AJ Smith-Shawver under 4.5 K | ATL vs MIN | 61.5% | -162 [BetRivers] | 3 K | HIT |
| Robert Stock over 3.5 K | NYM vs SD | 60.9% | -137 [BetRivers] | 6 K | HIT |
| Dustin May under 5.5 K | MIL vs SEA | 60.9% | -125 [DraftKings] | 1 K | HIT |
| Logan Gilbert under 6.5 K | SEA vs MIL | 58.3% | -101 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Max Scherzer over 3.5 K | TOR vs TB | 58.2% | -105 [Fanatics] | 1 K | MISS |
| Jeffrey Springs over 3.5 K | ATH vs KC | 57.0% | +120 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| Will Warren under 5.5 K | NYY vs BAL | 56.8% | -147 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Chris Bassitt over 4.5 K | BAL vs NYY | 56.6% | +110 [Bovada] | 6 K | HIT |
| Payton Tolle under 5.5 K | BOS vs AZ | 56.4% | +120 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Clay Holmes over 4.5 K | CHC vs CWS | 56.3% | -110 [Fanatics] | 1 K | MISS |
| Roki Sasaki over 4.5 K | LAD vs COL | 56.3% | -139 [BetRivers] | 6 K | HIT |
| Aaron Nola under 5.5 K | PHI vs MIA | 56.1% | +110 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Kyle Freeland over 3.5 K | COL vs LAD | 54.7% | -110 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Sandy Alcantara over 4.5 K | MIA vs PHI | 54.3% | +130 [Fanatics] | 1 K | MISS |
| Seth Lugo over 4.5 K | KC vs ATH | 53.8% | +140 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Walbert Ureña under 4.5 K | LAA vs HOU | 53.7% | +115 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Jackson Jobe under 4.5 K | DET vs PIT | 53.2% | -106 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Kumar Rocker under 4.5 K | TEX vs WSH | 51.5% | +120 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Cade Cavalli over 5.5 K | WSH vs TEX | 50.9% | -108 [DraftKings] | 11 K | HIT |
| Paul Skenes over 6.5 K | PIT vs DET | 50.1% | +134 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Taj Bradley over 5.5 K | MIN vs ATL | 50.1% | -120 [BetRivers] | 7 K | HIT |
Tue, Aug 18, 2026
8—16 · 33%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler under 7.5 K | PHI vs MIA | 78.7% | -130 [Fanatics] | 7 K | HIT |
| Ranger Suarez under 4.5 K | BOS vs AZ | 69.8% | -102 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Eric Lauer over 3.5 K | LAD vs COL | 67.2% | -115 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Merrill Kelly over 3.5 K | AZ vs BOS | 66.6% | -125 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Foster Griffin under 5.5 K | CLE vs SF | 64.9% | -105 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Keider Montero over 3.5 K | DET vs PIT | 64.8% | -110 [Fanatics] | 3 K | MISS |
| George Klassen under 4.5 K | LAA vs HOU | 64.1% | -148 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Kyle Harrison under 5.5 K | MIL vs SEA | 62.9% | +135 [Bovada] | 8 K | MISS |
| Bryce Miller under 5.5 K | SEA vs MIL | 61.7% | -128 [FanDuel] | 3 K | HIT |
| José Soriano under 4.5 K | TOR vs TB | 60.7% | -104 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Kyle Leahy under 5.5 K | STL vs CIN | 59.9% | -125 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Robbie Ray over 4.5 K | SD vs NYM | 59.7% | -113 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Kevin Gausman under 6.5 K | CHC vs CWS | 58.9% | -125 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Carlos Rodón over 5.5 K | NYY vs BAL | 56.7% | +136 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Cal Quantrill under 3.5 K | TEX vs WSH | 54.8% | +110 [Bovada] | 5 K | MISS |
| Ryan Feltner over 3.5 K | COL vs LAD | 54.8% | +125 [Fanatics] | 3 K | MISS |
| Nick Martinez over 3.5 K | TB vs TOR | 54.4% | +125 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Carson Whisenhunt over 3.5 K | SF vs CLE | 54.0% | -105 [Fanatics] | 1 K | MISS |
| Andrew Abbott under 4.5 K | CIN vs STL | 53.1% | +105 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Zebby Matthews over 4.5 K | MIN vs ATL | 52.0% | +115 [Fanatics] | 4 K | MISS |
| Shane Baz under 5.5 K | BAL vs NYY | 51.9% | +122 [DraftKings] | 10 K | MISS |
| Cristian Javier under 4.5 K | HOU vs LAA | 51.6% | +100 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Tyler Mahle under 4.5 K | ATL vs MIN | 50.8% | +100 [BetMGM] | 3 K | HIT |
| Braxton Ashcraft over 5.5 K | PIT vs DET | 50.2% | -110 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
Mon, Aug 17, 2026
8—11 · 42%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski over 2.5 K | PIT vs DET | 77.1% | -132 [FanDuel] | 3 K | HIT |
| Bailey Ober over 3.5 K | MIN vs ATL | 71.5% | +102 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Rhett Lowder under 4.5 K | CIN vs STL | 69.7% | -138 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Cristopher Sánchez under 6.5 K | PHI vs MIA | 68.0% | +123 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Tomoyuki Sugano over 2.5 K | COL vs LAD | 64.0% | -145 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Mitch Bratt over 3.5 K | AZ vs BOS | 63.1% | -120 [BetMGM] | 0 K | MISS |
| Luis Castillo over 4.5 K | CWS vs CHC | 61.9% | -104 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| Nolan McLean over 5.5 K | NYM vs SD | 58.6% | -139 [BetRivers] | 3 K | MISS |
| Mason Barnett over 3.5 K | ATH vs KC | 58.5% | +123 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Shane McClanahan over 4.5 K | TB vs BAL | 58.2% | -105 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Walker Buehler over 3.5 K | SD vs NYM | 57.9% | +135 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Andre Pallante under 4.5 K | STL vs CIN | 57.2% | -102 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Martín Pérez under 3.5 K | ATL vs MIN | 55.4% | -105 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | HIT |
| Brandon Young over 3.5 K | BAL vs TB | 54.8% | -124 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Michael Wacha over 4.5 K | KC vs ATH | 53.2% | +115 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Blake Snell over 6.5 K | LAD vs COL | 52.4% | -135 [BetMGM] | 5 K | MISS |
| Shota Imanaga under 5.5 K | CHC vs CWS | 52.0% | +115 [BetMGM] | 10 K | MISS |
| Janson Junk under 3.5 K | MIA vs PHI | 51.5% | -150 [BetMGM] | 2 K | HIT |
| Framber Valdez under 5.5 K | DET vs PIT | 51.2% | -140 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
Sun, Aug 16, 2026
14—16 · 47%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin under 4.5 K | WSH vs NYM | 69.0% | -148 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Edward Cabrera over 3.5 K | CHC vs STL | 67.1% | +125 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Gabriel Hughes over 3.5 K | COL vs SF | 64.0% | -148 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Hunter Dobbins over 3.5 K | STL vs CHC | 63.6% | -125 [Fanatics] | 7 K | HIT |
| Tanner Bibee over 4.5 K | CLE vs SD | 63.4% | +119 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Noah Cameron under 6.5 K | KC vs LAA | 63.4% | -125 [BetMGM] | 8 K | MISS |
| Trevor Rogers under 4.5 K | BAL vs TB | 61.6% | -138 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Dylan Cease under 8.5 K | TOR vs NYY | 60.9% | -102 [DraftKings] | 10 K | MISS |
| Tarik Skubal under 7.5 K | LAD vs MIL | 60.0% | -116 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Christian Scott under 5.5 K | NYM vs WSH | 59.8% | +110 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Blade Tidwell under 4.5 K | SF vs COL | 59.8% | -103 [DraftKings] | 1 K | HIT |
| Patrick Sandoval over 4.5 K | BOS vs PIT | 58.3% | -148 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Jacob Lopez over 4.5 K | ATH vs TEX | 58.3% | -117 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Lake Bachar over 2.5 K | PIT vs BOS | 57.4% | -152 [BetRivers] | 4 K | HIT |
| Eury Pérez over 6.5 K | MIA vs CIN | 56.9% | -110 [Fanatics] | 5 K | MISS |
| Hunter Brown over 5.5 K | HOU vs SEA | 56.7% | -111 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Bryan Woo under 5.5 K | SEA vs HOU | 55.7% | +100 [BetRivers] | 5 K | HIT |
| Andrew Painter over 3.5 K | PHI vs MIN | 55.2% | -130 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Casey Mize under 4.5 K | SD vs CLE | 55.1% | -156 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Freddy Peralta under 6.5 K | TB vs BAL | 54.4% | -159 [BetRivers] | 2 K | HIT |
| Cody Bradford over 4.5 K | TEX vs ATH | 53.8% | +132 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Bryce Elder over 3.5 K | ATL vs AZ | 53.6% | -157 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Ryan Weathers under 4.5 K | NYY vs TOR | 53.5% | +125 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Michael Soroka under 4.5 K | AZ vs ATL | 53.4% | -122 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Ryan Johnson over 3.5 K | LAA vs KC | 52.5% | +115 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Drew Anderson under 4.5 K | DET vs CWS | 51.3% | -129 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Sean Burke under 5.5 K | CWS vs DET | 50.8% | +110 [Fanatics] | 2 K | HIT |
| Nick Lodolo over 4.5 K | CIN vs MIA | 50.5% | -122 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Dean Kremer over 4.5 K | MIN vs PHI | 50.4% | +106 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Logan Henderson under 5.5 K | MIL vs LAD | 50.4% | -105 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
Sat, Aug 15, 2026
14—14 · 50%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 K | MIL vs LAD | 74.9% | -101 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Reid Detmers under 6.5 K | LAA vs KC | 71.4% | -132 [DraftKings] | 11 K | MISS |
| Cam Schlittler under 6.5 K | NYY vs TOR | 67.7% | -139 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Emerson Hancock under 4.5 K | SEA vs HOU | 66.4% | +102 [FanDuel] | 8 K | MISS |
| Sonny Gray over 5.5 K | BOS vs PIT | 66.1% | +118 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Joey Cantillo under 5.5 K | CLE vs SD | 65.2% | -125 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Grant Holmes over 3.5 K | ATL vs AZ | 62.5% | -130 [Fanatics] | 3 K | MISS |
| Ian Seymour under 6.5 K | TB vs BAL | 61.5% | +111 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Jared Jones over 4.5 K | PIT vs BOS | 59.3% | -130 [Fanatics] | 7 K | HIT |
| MacKenzie Gore under 6.5 K | TEX vs ATH | 58.5% | -131 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| J.T. Ginn over 4.5 K | ATH vs TEX | 58.2% | +102 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Matthew Boyd over 4.5 K | CHC vs STL | 58.0% | -106 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Hayden Wesneski over 4.5 K | HOU vs SEA | 57.6% | +126 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Anthony Kay under 4.5 K | CWS vs DET | 57.4% | -125 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Randy Dobnak over 3.5 K | KC vs LAA | 57.3% | +132 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Troy Melton under 5.5 K | DET vs CWS | 56.8% | -155 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Connor Prielipp under 5.5 K | MIN vs PHI | 56.8% | +120 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Brady Singer over 4.5 K | CIN vs MIA | 55.1% | -132 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Logan Webb under 5.5 K | SF vs COL | 53.9% | -105 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Jesús Luzardo under 6.5 K | PHI vs MIN | 53.0% | -115 [FanDuel] | 9 K | MISS |
| Brad Lord over 3.5 K | WSH vs NYM | 52.9% | +130 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| Michael Lorenzen under 3.5 K | COL vs SF | 52.8% | -125 [BetMGM] | 1 K | HIT |
| Eduardo Rodriguez over 4.5 K | AZ vs ATL | 52.3% | +120 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Justin Wrobleski over 4.5 K | LAD vs MIL | 52.3% | +110 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Sean Manaea over 5.5 K | NYM vs WSH | 51.3% | -128 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Ryan Gusto under 4.5 K | MIA vs CIN | 51.2% | +105 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Kyle Bradish under 4.5 K | BAL vs TB | 51.0% | -104 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Michael McGreevy under 3.5 K | STL vs CHC | 50.9% | -130 [FanDuel] | 6 K | MISS |
Fri, Aug 14, 2026
12—12 · 50%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King over 3.5 K | SD vs CLE | 81.4% | -155 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Gavin Williams under 7.5 K | CLE vs SD | 78.9% | -140 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Kyle Freeland under 5.5 K | COL vs SF | 78.9% | -133 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Brandon Pfaadt over 3.5 K | AZ vs ATL | 70.3% | -105 [BetMGM] | 7 K | HIT |
| Chris Sale under 6.5 K | ATL vs AZ | 69.1% | -110 [BetMGM] | 9 K | MISS |
| Robert Gasser under 4.5 K | MIL vs LAD | 66.8% | -128 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Seth Lugo over 4.5 K | KC vs LAA | 64.5% | -121 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Clay Holmes over 3.5 K | CHC vs STL | 63.1% | -137 [BetRivers] | 3 K | MISS |
| Grayson Rodriguez under 5.5 K | LAA vs KC | 62.9% | -139 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Landen Roupp under 5.5 K | SF vs COL | 62.7% | +110 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Shane Bieber under 5.5 K | TOR vs NYY | 61.7% | -135 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Matthew Liberatore under 4.5 K | STL vs CHC | 57.9% | -125 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Chase Burns under 6.5 K | CIN vs MIA | 57.8% | -114 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Chris Bassitt over 3.5 K | BAL vs TB | 56.7% | +125 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Kumar Rocker over 4.5 K | TEX vs ATH | 55.2% | +125 [Fanatics] | 3 K | MISS |
| Gerrit Cole under 5.5 K | NYY vs TOR | 54.8% | -140 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Sandy Alcantara under 5.5 K | MIA vs CIN | 54.5% | +100 [BetMGM] | 2 K | HIT |
| Bubba Chandler under 4.5 K | PIT vs BOS | 54.4% | -138 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Jake Bennett over 4.5 K | BOS vs PIT | 54.3% | +124 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Peter Lambert over 4.5 K | HOU vs SEA | 53.5% | -140 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Andrew Alvarez over 4.5 K | WSH vs NYM | 52.8% | +120 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| George Kirby over 4.5 K | SEA vs HOU | 52.7% | -148 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 6.5 K | LAD vs MIL | 52.0% | +112 [FanDuel] | 9 K | MISS |
| Jackson Jobe under 4.5 K | DET vs CWS | 51.5% | +100 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
Thu, Aug 13, 2026
8—10 · 44%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keider Montero over 2.5 K | DET vs CLE | 78.9% | -170 [FanDuel] | 0 K | MISS |
| Max Fried under 5.5 K | NYY vs SEA | 71.7% | +116 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Kevin Gausman over 4.5 K | CHC vs WSH | 65.8% | -140 [BetMGM] | 7 K | HIT |
| Roki Sasaki under 5.5 K | LAD vs MIL | 64.3% | +117 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Payton Tolle under 5.5 K | BOS vs TOR | 60.0% | -109 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Logan Gilbert over 6.5 K | SEA vs NYY | 58.7% | -146 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Braxton Ashcraft under 5.5 K | PIT vs MIA | 58.3% | +110 [BetOnline.ag] | 10 K | MISS |
| Andrew Abbott over 4.5 K | CIN vs CWS | 58.2% | -135 [Bovada] | 3 K | MISS |
| Cade Cavalli under 5.5 K | WSH vs CHC | 58.0% | -142 [FanDuel] | 10 K | MISS |
| Taj Bradley over 5.5 K | MIN vs PHI | 57.7% | +163 [BetRivers] | 3 K | MISS |
| Shane Drohan over 4.5 K | MIL vs LAD | 56.9% | +102 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Aaron Nola under 5.5 K | PHI vs MIN | 55.6% | -120 [FanDuel] | 9 K | MISS |
| Tyler Phillips under 3.5 K | MIA vs PIT | 54.7% | +128 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Jacob deGrom over 6.5 K | TEX vs LAA | 52.3% | -120 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Davis Martin under 4.5 K | CWS vs CIN | 52.1% | +105 [BetMGM] | 3 K | HIT |
| Max Scherzer under 4.5 K | TOR vs BOS | 52.1% | -160 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Walbert Ureña under 4.5 K | LAA vs TEX | 52.0% | +130 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Parker Messick under 5.5 K | CLE vs DET | 50.9% | -123 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | MISS |
Wed, Aug 12, 2026
11—14 · 44%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk under 4.5 K | MIA vs PIT | 66.5% | -151 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Ranger Suarez under 4.5 K | BOS vs TOR | 66.5% | -115 [BetMGM] | 2 K | HIT |
| José Soriano under 5.5 K | TOR vs BOS | 66.0% | -129 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jack Perkins over 3.5 K | ATH vs TB | 65.9% | -165 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Carmen Mlodzinski over 3.5 K | PIT vs MIA | 62.4% | -104 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| George Klassen under 4.5 K | LAA vs TEX | 62.4% | +100 [BetMGM] | 5 K | MISS |
| Kyle Leahy over 3.5 K | STL vs PHI | 62.1% | -155 [BetMGM] | 6 K | HIT |
| Tyler Mahle under 5.5 K | ATL vs NYM | 60.8% | -140 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Luis Castillo over 5.5 K | CWS vs CIN | 59.0% | -103 [BetRivers] | 10 K | HIT |
| Robbie Ray over 4.5 K | SD vs MIL | 58.4% | -142 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Framber Valdez over 4.5 K | DET vs CLE | 57.2% | +107 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Eric Lauer under 4.5 K | LAD vs KC | 56.6% | -145 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Will Warren over 4.5 K | NYY vs SEA | 56.4% | -130 [FanDuel] | 3 K | MISS |
| Rhett Lowder under 4.5 K | CIN vs CWS | 55.8% | -137 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Shane Baz over 4.5 K | BAL vs MIN | 55.7% | -125 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Zack Wheeler under 5.5 K | PHI vs STL | 55.7% | +120 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 K | TB vs ATH | 55.7% | -154 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Cal Quantrill over 3.5 K | TEX vs LAA | 55.4% | +105 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | HIT |
| Foster Griffin under 5.5 K | CLE vs DET | 55.2% | -145 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Zebby Matthews under 5.5 K | MIN vs BAL | 52.2% | -148 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| David Peterson under 4.5 K | CHC vs WSH | 51.5% | -121 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Bryce Miller over 5.5 K | SEA vs NYY | 50.9% | -105 [BetMGM] | 5 K | MISS |
| Merrill Kelly over 4.5 K | AZ vs COL | 50.8% | -125 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Ryan Feltner over 3.5 K | COL vs AZ | 50.7% | +129 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Dustin May under 4.5 K | MIL vs SD | 50.4% | +105 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
Tue, Aug 11, 2026
16—14 · 53%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Weathers under 6.5 K | NYY vs SEA | 72.7% | -150 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Sean Burke under 7.5 K | CWS vs CIN | 71.9% | -135 [BetMGM] | 8 K | MISS |
| Jake Irvin under 4.5 K | WSH vs CHC | 71.8% | -125 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Walker Buehler under 4.5 K | SD vs MIL | 71.1% | -128 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Kyle Harrison under 5.5 K | MIL vs SD | 68.0% | -129 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Tanner Bibee over 4.5 K | CLE vs DET | 66.5% | -108 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Ryan Johnson under 4.5 K | LAA vs TEX | 63.4% | -140 [BetMGM] | 5 K | MISS |
| Cody Bradford over 4.5 K | TEX vs LAA | 63.2% | -146 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| Nick Lodolo over 4.5 K | CIN vs CWS | 62.7% | -108 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Drew Anderson over 3.5 K | DET vs CLE | 62.4% | +135 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Patrick Sandoval under 4.5 K | BOS vs TOR | 62.0% | -123 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Nolan McLean over 5.5 K | NYM vs ATL | 62.0% | -139 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Bailey Ober over 4.5 K | MIN vs BAL | 60.2% | +120 [BetMGM] | 4 K | MISS |
| Shota Imanaga under 5.5 K | CHC vs WSH | 60.1% | -122 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Nick Martinez over 3.5 K | TB vs ATH | 59.8% | +130 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
| Tomoyuki Sugano over 2.5 K | COL vs AZ | 59.5% | -130 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Michael Wacha under 4.5 K | KC vs LAD | 57.0% | -126 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Dylan Cease under 7.5 K | TOR vs BOS | 56.9% | +120 [Bovada] | 7 K | HIT |
| Andre Pallante over 3.5 K | STL vs PHI | 56.5% | +110 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Mitch Bratt under 4.5 K | AZ vs COL | 56.2% | -113 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Bryan Woo under 6.5 K | SEA vs NYY | 54.8% | -135 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Brandon Young under 4.5 K | BAL vs MIN | 54.8% | -149 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Carson Whisenhunt over 3.5 K | SF vs HOU | 54.8% | -114 [BetRivers] | 2 K | MISS |
| Paul Skenes under 6.5 K | PIT vs MIA | 54.0% | +120 [Fanatics] | 4 K | HIT |
| Mason Barnett over 3.5 K | ATH vs TB | 54.0% | +120 [BetMGM] | 0 K | MISS |
| Eury Pérez over 6.5 K | MIA vs PIT | 53.8% | +100 [FanDuel] | 7 K | HIT |
| Martín Pérez under 3.5 K | ATL vs NYM | 53.2% | +130 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Cristopher Sánchez under 5.5 K | PHI vs STL | 53.2% | +125 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Blake Snell under 6.5 K | LAD vs KC | 52.8% | -145 [Bovada] | 10 K | MISS |
| Hunter Brown over 5.5 K | HOU vs SF | 50.3% | -120 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
Mon, Aug 10, 2026
9—11 · 45%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta over 4.5 K | TB vs ATH | 71.4% | -110 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Jameson Taillon under 4.5 K | TOR vs BOS | 68.0% | -131 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Jacob Lopez under 4.5 K | ATH vs TB | 67.9% | -130 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | MISS |
| Reid Detmers under 6.5 K | LAA vs TEX | 67.7% | +126 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Hayden Wesneski over 3.5 K | HOU vs SF | 67.3% | -156 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Hunter Dobbins over 3.5 K | STL vs PHI | 64.9% | +136 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Sonny Gray over 4.5 K | BOS vs TOR | 63.8% | -115 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Tarik Skubal under 7.5 K | LAD vs KC | 63.2% | +122 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Dean Kremer under 5.5 K | MIN vs BAL | 62.9% | -129 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Gabriel Hughes over 3.5 K | COL vs AZ | 61.9% | -112 [BetRivers] | 3 K | MISS |
| Christian Scott under 5.5 K | NYM vs ATL | 61.8% | -105 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | MISS |
| Bryce Elder under 4.5 K | ATL vs NYM | 56.9% | -118 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Casey Mize under 4.5 K | SD vs MIL | 55.0% | +123 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Noah Cameron over 4.5 K | KC vs LAD | 54.5% | -145 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| MacKenzie Gore under 6.5 K | TEX vs LAA | 53.7% | -115 [BetMGM] | 9 K | MISS |
| Michael Soroka over 4.5 K | AZ vs COL | 53.6% | +114 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Logan Henderson over 5.5 K | MIL vs SD | 53.3% | +115 [Bovada] | 7 K | HIT |
| Blade Tidwell over 3.5 K | SF vs HOU | 52.7% | -118 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Andrew Painter under 3.5 K | PHI vs STL | 52.3% | -130 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Trevor Rogers over 4.5 K | BAL vs MIN | 50.9% | -120 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
Sun, Aug 9, 2026
10—18 · 36%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 K | MIL vs MIN | 73.6% | +109 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Emerson Hancock under 4.5 K | SEA vs TB | 73.4% | -120 [Fanatics] | 3 K | HIT |
| Shane Bieber over 3.5 K | TOR vs PHI | 67.6% | -138 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Randy Dobnak over 2.5 K | KC vs CHC | 66.7% | -130 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Justin Wrobleski over 3.5 K | LAD vs AZ | 66.4% | -166 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Eduardo Rodriguez over 3.5 K | AZ vs LAD | 65.1% | -140 [Fanatics] | 9 K | HIT |
| Logan Webb over 4.5 K | SF vs DET | 64.9% | -162 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Davis Martin over 3.5 K | CWS vs CLE | 63.8% | -120 [BetRivers] | 1 K | MISS |
| Grant Holmes over 4.5 K | ATL vs NYY | 63.2% | -150 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Jesús Luzardo under 6.5 K | PHI vs TOR | 62.6% | -124 [BetRivers] | 12 K | MISS |
| Matthew Boyd over 4.5 K | CHC vs KC | 61.5% | -143 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Sean Manaea over 5.5 K | NYM vs PIT | 61.3% | +126 [FanDuel] | 11 K | HIT |
| Grayson Rodriguez under 5.5 K | LAA vs MIA | 60.3% | -133 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Cam Schlittler under 6.5 K | NYY vs ATL | 59.9% | +105 [BetMGM] | 11 K | MISS |
| Connor Prielipp under 5.5 K | MIN vs MIL | 58.5% | -122 [FanDuel] | 7 K | MISS |
| Kumar Rocker under 5.5 K | TEX vs BAL | 57.2% | -144 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Cristian Javier over 3.5 K | HOU vs SD | 56.3% | +120 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| J.T. Ginn over 4.5 K | ATH vs BOS | 55.2% | +120 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| Brady Singer over 4.5 K | CIN vs WSH | 55.1% | +105 [Bovada] | 3 K | MISS |
| Jared Jones under 5.5 K | PIT vs NYM | 54.5% | -129 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Randy Vásquez over 2.5 K | SD vs HOU | 53.0% | -135 [BetMGM] | 1 K | MISS |
| Ryan Gusto under 4.5 K | MIA vs LAA | 52.9% | +119 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Joey Cantillo over 5.5 K | CLE vs CWS | 52.9% | -123 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Michael Lorenzen under 3.5 K | COL vs STL | 52.2% | -161 [DraftKings] | 1 K | HIT |
| Ian Seymour under 5.5 K | TB vs SEA | 52.1% | +140 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Michael McGreevy over 3.5 K | STL vs COL | 51.4% | -132 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Cade Povich over 4.5 K | BAL vs TEX | 51.4% | -113 [FanDuel] | 2 K | MISS |
| Troy Melton under 4.5 K | DET vs SF | 50.5% | +127 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
Sat, Aug 8, 2026
13—14 · 48%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer over 3.5 K | TOR vs PHI | 71.9% | -133 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Matthew Liberatore under 5.5 K | STL vs COL | 71.3% | -120 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Gavin Williams under 7.5 K | CLE vs CWS | 69.5% | +128 [BetOnline.ag] | 7 K | HIT |
| Brandon Pfaadt over 3.5 K | AZ vs LAD | 67.3% | -115 [Fanatics] | 2 K | MISS |
| Walbert Ureña under 5.5 K | LAA vs MIA | 67.1% | -156 [FanDuel] | 2 K | HIT |
| Jacob deGrom under 7.5 K | TEX vs BAL | 62.3% | -139 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Andrew Alvarez over 4.5 K | WSH vs CIN | 61.8% | -120 [BetMGM] | 2 K | MISS |
| Chris Sale under 7.5 K | ATL vs NYY | 61.3% | +107 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Gage Jump under 5.5 K | ATH vs BOS | 61.2% | -115 [FanDuel] | 11 K | MISS |
| Landen Roupp over 4.5 K | SF vs DET | 59.9% | +140 [Fanatics] | 3 K | MISS |
| Anthony Kay under 4.5 K | CWS vs CLE | 59.9% | +100 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Robert Gasser under 4.5 K | MIL vs MIN | 59.8% | -107 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Jackson Jobe over 3.5 K | DET vs SF | 58.3% | -140 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Chase Burns over 5.5 K | CIN vs WSH | 57.0% | -128 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Sandy Alcantara under 5.5 K | MIA vs LAA | 54.9% | -108 [FanDuel] | 8 K | MISS |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto over 5.5 K | LAD vs AZ | 54.8% | -104 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Kyle Freeland over 3.5 K | COL vs STL | 54.3% | -105 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Taj Bradley over 5.5 K | MIN vs MIL | 53.4% | -151 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Aaron Nola over 4.5 K | PHI vs TOR | 52.9% | +106 [BetRivers] | 8 K | HIT |
| Gerrit Cole over 5.5 K | NYY vs ATL | 52.3% | -125 [FanDuel] | 9 K | HIT |
| Kyle Bradish over 5.5 K | BAL vs TEX | 52.3% | +130 [DraftKings] | 4 K | MISS |
| Bubba Chandler under 4.5 K | PIT vs NYM | 51.0% | -108 [FanDuel] | 5 K | MISS |
| Michael King under 5.5 K | SD vs HOU | 50.9% | -155 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Peter Lambert over 4.5 K | HOU vs SD | 50.6% | +130 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Jake Bennett under 4.5 K | BOS vs ATH | 50.4% | +117 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| George Kirby under 4.5 K | SEA vs TB | 50.4% | +120 [Fanatics] | 2 K | HIT |
| Seth Lugo under 4.5 K | KC vs CHC | 50.3% | +140 [BetMGM] | 5 K | MISS |
Fri, Aug 7, 2026
7—18 · 28%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler under 6.5 K | PHI vs TOR | 75.8% | -146 [DraftKings] | 6 K | HIT |
| Max Fried under 5.5 K | NYY vs ATL | 74.9% | -125 [BetMGM] | 7 K | MISS |
| Nathan Eovaldi under 7.5 K | TEX vs BAL | 73.6% | -127 [DraftKings] | 2 K | HIT |
| Carmen Mlodzinski over 3.5 K | PIT vs NYM | 67.4% | +139 [DraftKings] | 1 K | MISS |
| Payton Tolle under 6.5 K | BOS vs ATH | 67.3% | +113 [DraftKings] | 14 K | MISS |
| Cade Cavalli under 6.5 K | WSH vs CIN | 64.3% | -140 [Fanatics] | 8 K | MISS |
| Merrill Kelly over 3.5 K | AZ vs LAD | 63.8% | -106 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Jack Perkins over 4.5 K | ATH vs BOS | 61.5% | -110 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Ronel Blanco over 4.5 K | HOU vs SD | 61.2% | -108 [BetOnline.ag] | 1 K | MISS |
| Noah Schultz over 3.5 K | CWS vs CLE | 60.4% | -113 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| Kyle Leahy under 4.5 K | STL vs COL | 59.9% | +102 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Robbie Ray over 4.5 K | SD vs HOU | 59.1% | -121 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| José Soriano over 4.5 K | TOR vs PHI | 58.3% | -106 [DraftKings] | 3 K | MISS |
| Shane Baz under 5.5 K | BAL vs TEX | 58.3% | -140 [BetMGM] | 9 K | MISS |
| Roki Sasaki under 4.5 K | LAD vs AZ | 58.3% | +128 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Drew Rasmussen under 5.5 K | TB vs SEA | 57.2% | +106 [FanDuel] | 8 K | MISS |
| Tyler Mahle under 5.5 K | ATL vs NYY | 57.0% | -115 [FanDuel] | 9 K | MISS |
| Keider Montero over 3.5 K | DET vs SF | 56.8% | -130 [Fanatics] | 5 K | HIT |
| Ryan Feltner over 3.5 K | COL vs STL | 55.7% | +122 [DraftKings] | 2 K | MISS |
| Shane Drohan under 5.5 K | MIL vs MIN | 55.3% | -119 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Kevin Gausman under 5.5 K | CHC vs KC | 52.2% | -142 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Zebby Matthews over 4.5 K | MIN vs MIL | 52.1% | -111 [FanDuel] | 4 K | MISS |
| Parker Messick over 5.5 K | CLE vs CWS | 51.6% | -128 [FanDuel] | 8 K | HIT |
| Logan Gilbert under 5.5 K | SEA vs TB | 50.8% | +130 [BetMGM] | 6 K | MISS |
| Tyler Phillips under 3.5 K | MIA vs LAA | 50.3% | +140 [BetRivers] | 4 K | MISS |
Thu, Aug 6, 2026
6—4 · 60%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez under 7.5 K | PHI vs WSH | 78.6% | -130 [Fanatics] | 6 K | HIT |
| Bailey Ober over 3.5 K | MIN vs KC | 70.2% | -130 [BetOnline.ag] | 0 K | MISS |
| Luis Castillo over 4.5 K | CWS vs BOS | 65.0% | +132 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Kohl Drake over 3.5 K | AZ vs SD | 63.1% | -135 [BetMGM] | 1 K | MISS |
| Ranger Suarez under 5.5 K | BOS vs CWS | 61.5% | +120 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Walker Buehler under 3.5 K | SD vs AZ | 56.6% | +102 [FanDuel] | 3 K | HIT |
| Miles Mikolas over 3.5 K | WSH vs PHI | 51.0% | +142 [FanDuel] | 1 K | MISS |
| Janson Junk under 3.5 K | MIA vs ATL | 50.6% | -105 [BetMGM] | 1 K | HIT |
| Martín Pérez over 3.5 K | ATL vs MIA | 50.6% | -135 [BetMGM] | 3 K | MISS |
| Michael Wacha under 4.5 K | KC vs MIN | 50.6% | +100 [BetOnline.ag] | 1 K | HIT |
Wed, Aug 5, 2026
14—7 · 67%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Harrison under 6.5 K | MIL vs PIT | 73.8% | -140 [BetMGM] | 10 K | MISS |
| Jacob Lopez under 5.5 K | ATH vs CIN | 69.5% | -138 [FanDuel] | 9 K | MISS |
| Bryce Elder under 4.5 K | ATL vs MIA | 64.2% | +111 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Tanner Bibee over 4.5 K | CLE vs NYM | 64.0% | -120 [Fanatics] | 10 K | HIT |
| Christian Scott under 5.5 K | NYM vs CLE | 63.5% | -144 [DraftKings] | 7 K | MISS |
| Sonny Gray over 5.5 K | BOS vs CWS | 62.7% | +115 [Bovada] | 8 K | HIT |
| Casey Mize under 4.5 K | SD vs AZ | 62.3% | -117 [BetRivers] | 1 K | HIT |
| Bryan Woo under 6.5 K | SEA vs DET | 62.1% | -134 [DraftKings] | 5 K | HIT |
| Rhett Lowder under 4.5 K | CIN vs ATH | 57.6% | -151 [DraftKings] | 3 K | HIT |
| Andre Pallante under 4.5 K | STL vs NYY | 57.3% | -110 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Reid Detmers under 6.5 K | LAA vs BAL | 56.2% | +120 [FanDuel] | 5 K | HIT |
| Andrew Painter over 3.5 K | PHI vs WSH | 54.8% | -159 [BetRivers] | 4 K | HIT |
| Eury Pérez over 5.5 K | MIA vs ATL | 54.7% | +110 [Bovada] | 9 K | HIT |
| Dean Kremer under 4.5 K | MIN vs KC | 54.2% | -111 [FanDuel] | 2 K | HIT |
| Jake Irvin over 3.5 K | WSH vs PHI | 53.9% | -122 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Trevor Rogers under 5.5 K | BAL vs LAA | 53.5% | +106 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
| Will Warren under 4.5 K | NYY vs STL | 53.4% | -112 [DraftKings] | 5 K | MISS |
| Noah Cameron over 4.5 K | KC vs MIN | 53.3% | -135 [Bovada] | 9 K | HIT |
| Paul Skenes under 6.5 K | PIT vs MIL | 53.0% | +122 [FanDuel] | 6 K | HIT |
| Sean Burke under 5.5 K | CWS vs BOS | 52.3% | +122 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Mitch Bratt under 3.5 K | AZ vs SD | 51.5% | -148 [DraftKings] | 9 K | MISS |
Tue, Aug 4, 2026
21—7 · 75%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo under 7.5 K | PHI vs WSH | 72.2% | +101 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| Patrick Sandoval under 5.5 K | BOS vs CWS | 71.6% | +102 [BetRivers] | 5 K | HIT |
| MacKenzie Gore under 6.5 K | TEX vs SF | 70.2% | -103 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Randy Dobnak over 2.5 K | KC vs MIN | 69.2% | -125 [Fanatics] | 1 K | MISS |
| Eduardo Rodriguez over 3.5 K | AZ vs SD | 68.5% | -145 [BetMGM] | 4 K | HIT |
| Ryan Weathers under 5.5 K | NYY vs STL | 68.2% | +100 [BetRivers] | 6 K | MISS |
| Sean Manaea over 4.5 K | NYM vs CLE | 68.1% | -102 [DraftKings] | 7 K | HIT |
| J.T. Ginn over 4.5 K | ATH vs CIN | 67.9% | -135 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | HIT |
| Trey Yesavage under 5.5 K | TOR vs HOU | 64.6% | -110 [BetMGM] | 0 K | HIT |
| Jared Jones under 5.5 K | PIT vs MIL | 63.2% | +105 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | HIT |
| Emerson Hancock under 4.5 K | SEA vs DET | 62.9% | +129 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Hayden Wesneski over 3.5 K | HOU vs TOR | 62.0% | -154 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Troy Melton under 5.5 K | DET vs SEA | 61.0% | -136 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Hunter Dobbins over 3.5 K | STL vs NYY | 60.6% | -159 [BetRivers] | 4 K | HIT |
| Tarik Skubal under 7.5 K | LAD vs CHC | 60.3% | -121 [BetRivers] | 6 K | HIT |
| Grayson Rodriguez under 5.5 K | LAA vs BAL | 58.5% | -136 [BetRivers] | 6 K | MISS |
| Gabriel Hughes over 3.5 K | COL vs TB | 58.1% | +118 [BetRivers] | 7 K | HIT |
| Logan Henderson under 6.5 K | MIL vs PIT | 58.0% | -118 [DraftKings] | 8 K | MISS |
| Brady Singer over 4.5 K | CIN vs ATH | 57.9% | -114 [BetOnline.ag] | 6 K | HIT |
| Davis Martin under 4.5 K | CWS vs BOS | 57.8% | -134 [DraftKings] | 1 K | HIT |
| Cade Povich over 4.5 K | BAL vs LAA | 57.5% | -125 [BetRivers] | 7 K | HIT |
| Freddy Peralta over 5.5 K | TB vs COL | 57.2% | +134 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Joe Ryan over 5.5 K | MIN vs KC | 57.1% | -125 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Grant Holmes over 4.5 K | ATL vs MIA | 52.3% | +100 [Bovada] | 5 K | HIT |
| Randy Vásquez under 2.5 K | SD vs AZ | 52.0% | -137 [BetRivers] | 1 K | HIT |
| Joey Cantillo under 5.5 K | CLE vs NYM | 51.7% | +110 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | HIT |
| Javier Assad under 3.5 K | CHC vs LAD | 51.4% | -125 [BetMGM] | 3 K | HIT |
| Ryan Gusto over 3.5 K | MIA vs ATL | 50.3% | +100 [BetMGM] | 5 K | HIT |
Mon, Aug 3, 2026
8—6 · 57%| Projection we posted | Game | Our number | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt over 3.5 K | AZ vs SD | 70.6% | -164 [BetOnline.ag] | 3 K | MISS |
| Logan Webb over 4.5 K | SF vs TEX | 63.7% | -152 [BetRivers] | 8 K | HIT |
| Cal Quantrill under 3.5 K | TEX vs SF | 62.5% | -103 [BetOnline.ag] | 4 K | MISS |
| Michael McGreevy under 4.5 K | STL vs NYY | 61.8% | -154 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | MISS |
| Ian Seymour over 4.5 K | TB vs COL | 61.8% | -146 [FanDuel] | 9 K | HIT |
| Shane Bieber under 4.5 K | TOR vs HOU | 60.2% | -162 [DraftKings] | 6 K | MISS |
| Brandon Sproat under 5.5 K | MIL vs PIT | 59.5% | -128 [DraftKings] | 4 K | HIT |
| Matthew Boyd over 4.5 K | CHC vs LAD | 58.2% | -136 [BetRivers] | 3 K | MISS |
| Michael King over 4.5 K | SD vs AZ | 58.0% | +105 [BetOnline.ag] | 5 K | HIT |
| Cam Schlittler under 6.5 K | NYY vs STL | 57.9% | +123 [BetRivers] | 6 K | HIT |
| Justin Wrobleski under 5.5 K | LAD vs CHC | 57.4% | -115 [FanDuel] | 4 K | HIT |
| Bubba Chandler under 4.5 K | PIT vs MIL | 54.1% | +125 [BetMGM] | 5 K | MISS |
| Cristian Javier under 3.5 K | HOU vs TOR | 53.4% | +125 [BetMGM] | 2 K | HIT |
| Michael Lorenzen under 3.5 K | COL vs TB | 53.1% | -160 [BetMGM] | 0 K | HIT |
Revision policy
- · Projections are issued before first pitch and timestamped with the model version that produced them.
- · A projection may be re-issued if the probable starter changes. The re-issue supersedes the original, both are kept, and only the live one is graded — grade-once, never twice.
- · Once a row is graded it is immutable. No row is edited, hidden, or deleted, whatever it says.
- · The line used for grading is the consensus line across captured books, chosen before the game.
- · If a pitcher is scratched, the row voids and is reported as a void rather than scored.
- · Model versions are published. A model that fails its validation gate is not shipped — the outs and earned-run models failed twice and never went live.
What this record is not
It is a record of projection accuracy, not of profit. We take no positions and track no returns, so there is no ROI or closing-line-value figure here and there will not be one until positions are actually tracked. These are projections, not picks — what you do with them is your call.
Numbers like these, graded in public every night.
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