Wide Receiver · Indianapolis Colts
Alec Pierce — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.
The case
- · The Colts backed up the Brinks truck and dumped $114 million, with $84 million being guaranteed. In the crazy NFL, the Falcons gave Bijan Robinson a three-year extension for $75 million ($51 million guaranteed). So in what world is an unproven deep threat worth more than a stud front-line running back?
- · Pierce had ankle surgery in March, but he remains on the PUP list in early August.
- · He comes off a career high in catches (47) and receiving yards (1,003) with weakness in his catch rate (56.0%).
- · Will the Colts give Pierce more catches close to the line of scrimmage with Michael Pittman removed from Indy’s passing equation?
Question marks
- · Pierce scored fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in eight of his 17 starts last year.
- · Can Indy repeat their high-scoring rate (32 points per game) over the first 10 games in 2025 with Daniel Jones behind center?
- · As a WR3 option, Pierce may be challenging to time, creating roster management mistakes.
Shawn's conclusion
Pierce can make big scoring plays, and he has had WR2 snaps for the Colts over the past three seasons. He finished last year ranked 28th in PPR scoring (183.30) despite catching only 47 balls. Despite his expected opportunity and my bullish projections, Pierce has a WR4 feel due to the weakness in his consistency factor. Unfortunately, there are more proven wide receivers on the board where he’s being selected.
More on Pierce
Pierce's rookie season was a quiet one overall. He caught 41 of 78 targets for 593 yards and two touchdowns, opening with a zero in Week 1 and a missed game before showing some life over the following four contests (3/61, 4/80, 8/81, and 3/49/1 on 27 combined targets). He closed out the year with WR3 snaps but managed just one other worthwhile performance (4/86/1) over his final 11 games, finishing with 23 catches for 322 yards and a touchdown in that stretch.
His playing time increased sharply in 2023, leading to Pierce leading all Colts receivers with a 94.9% snap share, but the production didn't follow. He caught just 32 of 65 targets for 514 yards and two touchdowns, recording three catches or fewer in 16 of his 17 starts. His only fantasy-viable outing came in Week 13 (3/100/1).
The arrival of Adonai Mitchell in 2024 appeared to threaten Pierce's role, but Indianapolis found a way to deploy him as a deep threat instead. The results were his best yet (22.3 yards per catch and 20-plus yard gains on 13 catches, with seven reaching the 40-yard mark). He set career highs in receiving yards (824) and touchdowns (7). He averaged 4.4 PPR fantasy points per catch, making him a high-upside option whenever he found the end zone or broke free for a deep catch.
Last season, Pierce continued on his deep threat path by setting career highs in catches (47), receiving yards (1,003), and targets (84). He gained an impressive 21.3 yards per catch, which also led to a low catch rate (56.0%). Pierce scored six times while gaining 20 yards or more on 17 catches (five gained at least 40 yards). His best fantasy value came after Week 8 (6/115, 4/84/1, 4/78/1, 4/86/2), when Indianapolis was scoring the least.
The Colts signed Pierce to a four-year deal for $116 million in March while moving on from Michael Pittman. He comes off a WR28 season in PPR formats (183.30) while missing two games earlier in the year with a concussion. Pierce had minor ankle surgery in late April that should sideline him until the end of July.
Update 6/11/2026: Pierce had left shoulder surgery this spring (late March/early April). His recovery time looks to be multiple months, which suggests he may not be ready for Week 1.
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