Wide Receiver · Indianapolis Colts
Josh Downs — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.
The case
- · Downs brings chain mover profile to the Colts’ offense this year.
- · He’ll compete with Tyler Warren for many of the targets vacated by the loss of Michael Pittman.
- · Over his first 47 games in the NFL, Downs averaged 4.2 catches for 46 yards and 0.23 touchdowns (10.18 PPR fantasy points per game or 173.06 over 17 starts).
- · Last year, 35 wide receivers scored more than 170.00 PPR fantasy points.
- · He’s missed four games across his three seasons in the NFL.
- · Downs ranked 35th in PRR scoring (183.60) in 2024.
Question marks
- · Downs doesn’t appear to have enough scoring juice to be a winning player as a fantasy WR3.
- · His 5/50 skill set with some TDs makes more sense as an injury or bye week cover.
Shawn's conclusion
With a 10% increase in opportunity and 17 starts, Downs has a chance to beat market expectations in fantasy leagues. He’s scored over 20.00 fantasy points only three times (5/125/1, 8/82/1, and 4/122/1). I expect him to be a value in drafts and beat most fantasy sites’ projections.
More on Downs
Downs carved out a WR3 role as a rookie, finishing with 68 catches for 771 yards and two touchdowns on 98 targets. He was the most productive over a six-game stretch from Week 3 to Week 8 (8/57, 2/34, 6/97, 5/21/1, 5/125/1, and 7/72), before fading considerably over the final nine games (just 28 catches for 289 yards and no touchdowns on 42 targets, averaging 6.42 PPR fantasy points per game). A knee issue that surfaced in Week 9 was a significant factor in that second-half regression.
2024 opened with two missed games due to an ankle injury, but Downs cranked up his fantasy value from Week 4 through Week 11. He delivered starting-caliber fantasy numbers in seven of eight games (8/82/1, 9/69, 7/66/1, 4/109/1, 6/60, 7/72, and 5/84/1). A shoulder injury cost him another game, and the Colts then largely ignored him over four other matchups (three catches or fewer in each). He closed the regular season on a high note with 10 catches for 94 yards on 13 targets in Week 18, offering a reminder of what he's capable of when featured in the Colts’ offense.
The addition of Tyler Warren had the most impact on Downs’s opportunity last year. He comes off career lows in catches (58), receiving yards (566), touchdowns (4), and targets (4) while gaining only 9.8 yards per catch. Downs slipped to WR43 in PPR formats (137.90 fantasy points) due to scoring fewer than 10.00 fantasy points in half of his 16 games. His best fantasy value came in Week 6 (6/42/1) and Week 9 (6/57/1). A concussion knocked him out of Week 7.
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