Baker Mayfield — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

Mayfield's stint with Carolina got off to a losing start in 2022. Through his first five starts, he threw for 962 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions, while completing just 54.9% of his passes. An ankle injury in mid-October sidelined him for two games, and after two more uninspiring outings upon his return (155 yards/2 TD and 196 yards/0 TD), the Panthers cut him loose.

He landed in Los Angeles later in the year, where an injured Matthew Stafford opened the door to five starts down the stretch for the Rams. The results were similarly underwhelming (82-of-129 passing for 850 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions), and his 6.5 yards per attempt marked a career low. Mayfield did add 89 rushing yards and a score on 31 carries, but his rushing impact has generally been minimal throughout his career (189 carries for 660 yards and 6 touchdowns).

Everything changed in his first season in Tampa Bay in 2023. Mayfield set career highs across the board (364 completions, 566 attempts, 4,044 passing yards, and 29 touchdowns), while also posting his best-ever completion rate (64.3%). The Buccaneers locked him up that March with a three-year, $100 million deal. He topped 300 passing yards in three regular-season games (317/1, 381/4, and 309/4) and leaned heavily on his arm in the playoffs (337/3 and 349/3), finishing 10th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring (328.00 points) in four-point-per-touchdown formats.

In 2024, Mayfield took it even further. He broke his own career highs yet again with 407 completions, 570 attempts, 4,500 passing yards, and 41 touchdowns, and his rushing production (60 carries for 378 yards and three scores) was easily the best of his career.

After a dominant Week 1 (310/4), he hit a stretch where Mayfield passed for under 190 yards in three of his next four games, yet still managed six touchdowns across that span. Tampa Bay's passing attack eclipsed 300 yards six times on the season (347/2, 325/4, 370/3, 330/3, 303/2, and 359/5), and Mayfield delivered at least two touchdown passes in 14 of his 18 starts. He finished third at quarterback (428.80 fantasy points) in four-point passing touchdown formats.

Mayfield took a beating last year, leading to him playing through biceps, knee, and shoulder issues. He posted more than two touchdowns in only two games (206/3 and 273/3). Over his first seven starts, Mayfield averaged 22.34 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown formats, worthy of a top 5 quarterback. He ended up being a lost fantasy start over his last 10 starts (193 passing yards per game with 13 combined touchdowns), which included an early exit in Week 12.

In mid-June, in the National Fantasy Football Championship, he ranks 17th at quarterback with a 10th-round ADP (146). Ultimately, Mayfield had only once been a fantasy edge. I trust a run at 4,000 passing yards, but he’s only had over 30 touchdowns once (44 in 2024) in his nine years in the NFL, so think of him as a steady game manager with some matchup value.