Matthew Stafford — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

In the five seasons before joining the Rams, Stafford operated as a league-average quarterback, throwing 119 touchdowns against 46 interceptions over 72 games while averaging 265.7 passing yards per start.

His arrival in Los Angeles immediately elevated his game. Stafford matched his career-high with 41 touchdown passes in 2021, completed 67.2% of his throws, and benefited from a receiving corps built to attack defenses vertically — producing a league-leading 18 completions of 40 or more yards. He topped 300 passing yards in nine of his 20 appearances (including playoffs) and reached three touchdown passes in nine regular-season games. His only weakness from a fantasy perspective was on the ground, where he contributed almost nothing (32 carries for 43 yards).

The 2022 season unraveled quickly. Over nine starts before a neck injury ended his year after Week 11, Stafford produced just one usable fantasy outing (272/3). His completion rate (68.0%) was actually a career best, but nearly everything else moved in the wrong direction. His pass attempts per game declined, his sack rate nearly doubled from 4.8% to 8.7%, and his yards per attempt dropped a full 1.2 yards from his 2021 mark of 8.1 down to 6.9.

Stafford had new concerns in 2023. He posted his lowest completion rate (62.6%) since 2014, a drop tied in part to the Rams' minimal investment in their backs as passing targets (48/344/3 on only 69 targets). Stafford opened the year with three 300-yard performances (334, 307, and 319) over his first four starts, but managed only two combined touchdown passes across those games. From Week 5 through Week 15, he averaged 31.9 pass attempts and 232 yards per game while finding a better rhythm in the touchdown column (18 scores over nine games). He closed strong (328/2, 317/1, and 367/2) before the Rams rested him in the finale. A thumb injury cost him Week 9.

For the third straight year, Stafford was a fantasy disappointment in 2024, finishing 19th among quarterbacks with 263.30 points. He delivered just two winning fantasy performances (275/4 and 295/4) and surpassed 300 passing yards in three other outings (317/1, 320/2, and 324/2). Los Angeles averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game with him under center.

After three dull fantasy seasons, Stafford posted his best year at age 37. He had a floor of two touchdowns in 17 of his 20 starts, including the postseason. Eight of those outcomes result in 29.00 or more fantasy points (375/3, 389/3, 182/5, 281/4, 280/4, 457/3, 259/4, and 374/3). Despite his success, Stafford scored fewer than 17.00 fantasy points in six matchups. His 46 passing touchdowns ranked seventh all-time.

I sense that the Rams’ offense could go sideways this year due to an injury or two. Stafford brings no value in the run game, which requires him to pass for 4,000 yards with about 34 touchdowns to rank in the top 12 at quarterback in 2026.