Caleb Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

More on Williams

Over three college seasons, Williams threw for 10,082 yards, 93 touchdowns, and just 14 interceptions. His 2022 campaign at USC stood out as his finest (4,537 passing yards, 42 touchdown passes, 382 rushing yards, and 10 more scores on the ground), earning him the Heisman Trophy and a sweep of major offensive honors. As a rusher, he carried 289 times for 966 yards and 27 touchdowns across 37 career games, but his yards per carry declined steadily as defenses adjusted (5.6 in 2021, 3.4 in 2022, 1.5 in 2023). He went 23-10 as a split starter between Oklahoma and USC.

Williams plays the position with a gunslinger's mindset, always looking to attack downfield and beat defenses with his arm. His college receiving corps had the deep speed to create frequent wide-open shots, and he consistently delivered in those moments. In the pocket, he showed poise under pressure — sliding to open windows, buying time against the pass rush, and turning broken plays into chunk gains with his legs. He's at his best when improvising, though he can get himself into trouble by forcing throws into tight coverage when his first read isn't there.

The adjustment he needs to make at the professional level is learning to operate as a rhythm passer who processes the full field rather than hunting for explosive plays. As defenses take away his primary options, Williams needs to work through progressions more patiently and get the ball out quickly to his second and third reads. At times, he drew comparisons to Peyton Manning in the way he manipulated the pocket, with a Patrick Mahomes-like quality emerging when scrambling under pressure: fluid, quick, and dangerous in open space.

The downside of his style is exposure to negative plays. When Williams retreats too deeply in his pass setup to create a throwing lane, sacks pile up, and the ball can come loose. That said, when given a clear look, his arm strength, accuracy, and ability to read the coverage are all legitimate.

Williams was sacked 68 times, and his timing was inconsistent — at times firing with too much velocity on throws that called for touch and placement. Still, he avoided major turnover damage, throwing just six interceptions, with only two coming over his final 14 starts. His four best games (338/2, 282/4, 373/2, and 368/2) came at home. Williams failed to reach 200 passing yards in nine contests, six of which came over his last 11 starts. When running lanes opened up, he made the most of them, carrying 81 times for 489 yards, but none reached the end zone.

Williams had almost the same passing (568) and rushing (77) opportunities as in 2024 (562/81), but he gained 300 more combined yards with an increase of 10 touchdowns. Fumbles (nine – one lost) remain an issue (10 in 2024, with five going to the opposing team). His completion rate (58.1%) was well below his rookie campaign (62.5%). He has a floor of 20.00 fantasy points (four-point passing TDs) in 12 of his 19 starts (including the postseason). Williams ended the season with seven consecutive games with two touchdowns, a feat he achieved seven times over his first 12 starts.

His two impact fantasy games came in Week 3 (32.10) and Week 9 (41.50). Williams attempted 35 passes or more 10 times. His lack of experience showed in the postseason based on his five interceptions in two matchups and weaker completion rate (52.2%). He finished sixth in quarterback scoring (366.00 fantasy points).

Williams comes off the board as the seventh quarterback in June in the National Fantasy Football Championship, with a ninth-round ADP (93). I expect more issues protecting the quarterback based on Chicago’s offseason changes to its offensive line. With a rebound in his completion rate, the Bears’ rising quarterback should push toward 4,500 combined yards with a new top touchdowns.