Sam Darnold — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

Darnold was the third overall pick in the 2018 draft, but his first six NFL seasons were a struggle. Splitting time between the Jets, Panthers, and 49ers, he went 21-35 with just one winning record (7-6 in 2019). His numbers were underwhelming across the board — a 59.7% completion rate, 63 touchdowns against 56 interceptions over 66 games, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 149 sacks absorbed. Darnold showed some utility as a runner (209/760/13), but it wasn't nearly enough to offset his passing deficiencies.

San Francisco gave him one start in 2023 (16-for-26, 189 yards, and one touchdown) before Minnesota signed him the following March for $10 million as a backup option. When J.J. McCarthy went down with a knee injury in early August, Darnold suddenly found himself in the most favorable quarterback situation of his career.

He made the most of it. Armed with two legitimate receiving threats, Darnold posted career bests across every meaningful passing category, highlighted by 36 combined touchdowns and a newfound presence in the deep passing game — 62 completions of at least 20 yards, including 10 that went for 40 or more. He was also more involved on the ground than ever (67/212/1).

Three 300-yard outings dotted his schedule (330/2, 347/5, and 377/3), and Darnold threw at least two touchdowns in 13 of his 18 starts, including the playoffs. He ranked seventh among quarterbacks in four-point passing touchdown formats (367.55). His lone truly explosive fantasy day (38.05) arrived in Week 14, and he landed between 20.00 and 29.90 points in 10 other appearances.

The progress of Darnold continued in Seattle after signing a three-year deal before the season. His ability to attack in the deep passing games led to Jaxon-Smith Njigba (119/1,793/10) become wide receiver stud, and Darnold setting career-bests in his completion rate (67.7%) and yards per pass attempt (8.5). His game manager profile led to him ranking 13th in fantasy points (296.20) in four-point passing touchdown formats.

He lost value in the run game (35/95) while passing for over 300 yards in three games (341/4, 330/4, and 346/3). Darnold had one touchdown or fewer in 11 of his 20 starts while averaging 28.4 passes per start.

His success is driven by one elite receiving option. To reach a higher passing ceiling, the Seahawks’ tight ends or their secondary wideouts must contribute more for Darnold to become a trusted top-12 quarterback. I view him as a league-average NFL quarterback, which doesn’t move the needle in enough games in the fantasy market.