Tight End · Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.
The case
- · Pitts comes off a career season (88/928/5 on 118 targets), which was expected after flashing a high floor in his rookie year (68/1,026/1 on 110 targets).
- · He hasn’t missed a game over the past three years, but two ended with below expected value in fantasy points (13th in 2023 – 137.70 and 15th in 131.20).
- · His breakout year placed him second in tight end scoring (210.80) last year.
- · The Falcons featured him much more in the passing game over four matchups (26/363/3 on 35 targets) late in the year with Drake London out. His best career game (11/66/3) came in Week 15.
- · The Browns’ tight end ranked sixth (112/1,078/9) and eighth (111/953/7) under the direction of Browns’ former head coach (Kevin Stefanski) and offensive coordinator (Tommy Rees).
Question marks
- · Possible third option in the passing game behind Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts.
- · Does Zachariah Branch steal some of his short-area targets?
- · Both of the Falcons’ top two quarterbacks are banged up in late July?
- · Is Michael Penix or Tua Tagovailoa a better option for the Falcons’ passing game?
Shawn's conclusion
My early projections for Pitts suggest I’m off base based on his outlook in the fantasy market. In essence, he is priced 15% lower than his result last year in fantasy points, based on Drake London being in the field for five more games (29.5% of their schedule). My next update will have him up at least two TE ranking spots due to dings in Dalton Kincaid’s profile and some combination of the two tight ends coming off injuries. Pitts scored under 15.00 fantasy points in 12 of 17 starts in 2025, which paints him more as a steady option than his impact upside tight end.
More on Pitts
The 2022 season was a painful chapter for Pitt's fantasy game managers. A season-ending right knee injury in Week 11 limited him to just 10 games. He finished with 28 catches for 356 yards and two touchdowns on 59 targets. Only three outings were worth starting him (5/87, 3/19/1, and 5/80/1), while a 47.5% catch rate and 5.9 targets per game made him a weekly gamble that rarely paid off.
Atlanta never found a way to unlock Pitts in 2023. He logged three catches or fewer in 12 of his 17 games, including a completely invisible final five weeks. His four double-digit PPR performances (15.70, 14.30, 14.70, and 13.90) kept hope alive (three came with a touchdown, and the fourth saw Atlanta target him 11 times), but those flashes were the exception, not the rule. His surface stats (53/667/3 on 90 targets) masked just enough production to land him 13th in tight end scoring at 137.70 fantasy points, but a 58.9% catch rate and a 64.3% snap share told the story of a player being underutilized and underperforming in equal measure.
2024 brought further regression. His target share dried up to just 4.4 per game, and his catch rate improved to 63.5%. Pitts continued to generate chunk plays (40 or more yards on three catches). His lack of volume wasn't enough to make him a reliable fantasy option. He slid to 15th in tight end scoring with 131.20 points, with one impact performance (4/91/2) and five other passable outings (3/26/1, 7/88, 3/70, 7/65, and 4/44/1) carrying most of his fantasy weight. His final eight games were particularly discouraging (just 13 catches for 117 yards and one score on 25 targets), punctuated by five outright bust weeks (1/9, 0/0, 1/14, 1/7, and 2/15) that summed up the maddening reality of rostering Pitts.
In his fifth season with the Falcons, Pitts set career highs in catches (88), touchdowns (5), and targets (118), highlighted by gaining 20 yards or more on 12 of his catches. His impact game (11/166/3) came in Week 15. He had double-digit targets in three contests, with a floor of five catches in nine games. Pitts ranked second in PPR fantasy points (210.80) while scoring between 11.00 and 18.00 fantasy points in eight matchups.
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