Tight End · Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.
The case
- · Kincaid has been a losing tease in back-to-back years due to missing nine games.
- · His rookie success (73/673/2 on 91 targets) painted a much higher career ceiling when adding his starting quarterback and the Bills high scoring potential.
- · He comes off a career high in touchdowns (5) while suiting up for only 12 games. His catch rate (79.6%) was actually lower than his rookie season (80.2%).
- · The Bills’ tight ends caught 97 passes for 1,210 yards and 12 touchdowns on 121 targets in 2025, highlighted by them gaining 12.5 yards per catch (4th in the league) and ranking third in PPR fantasy points (290.00).
- · Kincaid was never on the field for more than 55% of the Bills’ plays last year (39.0% of their snaps in the games that he played). He also saw fewer snaps across his final seven games in 2024.
Question marks
- · How much does DJ Moore steal from the Bills’ tight end opportunity?
- · Since arriving in the NFL, Kincaid has split tight end snaps in just about every game (80% or more plays only five times in his career over 41 matchups).
- · He played through a torn PCL last season, which didn’t require surgery (seems like a red flag).
- · Kincaid also battled oblique and hamstring issues in 2025.
Shawn's conclusion
Based on his stats over limited snaps last season, Kincaid has a value feel to his fantasy profile. Unfortunately, his injury risk looks real based on his left knee issue in 2025 and also late in 2024. He also battled bursitis in his right knee before last year. At this point, I have to pass on his expected value profile and lean on his injury risk. As a second tight end, why not gamble? But there is no way I am coming out of any fantasy draft with him as my TE1.
More on Kincaid
Kincaid missed one of his possible 19 starts in his rookie season, leading to 81 catches for 777 yards and three touchdowns on 102 targets. He had a productive six-game stretch (8/75, 5/65/1, 10/81, 5/51/1, 6/46, and 5/38) midseason, followed by three dull showings (5/21, 0/0, and 1/7). Buffalo got him more involved over his final four starts (4/87, 7/84, 3/59/1, and 5/45). His catch rate (80.2%) graded well, despite having five drops. Kincaid gained only 9.2 yards per catch.
Kincaid (44/448/2 on 75 targets) went down as a fantasy bust in 2024. He finished 30th in tight end scoring (100.80) in PPR formats while sitting out four games (knee and collarbone issues). Over the first 10 weeks, Kincaid posted three double-digit games (13.10, 11.10, and 13.10) in fantasy points while being unplayable after Week 10.
In 2025, Josh Allen appeared to be in rhythm with Kincaid over the first five weeks (4/48/1, 4/37, 5/66/1, 1/28/1, and 6/108), despite only seeing 24 targets. Injuries knocked him out of five games while seeing only rotational snaps in eight other matchups. He flashed in Week 9 (6/101/1) while scoring in three other contests (4/41/1, 3/28/1, and 6/83/1). Kincaid never had more than six targets in a game. He caught 80.0% of his 60 targets over 14 weeks (including the playoffs). Buffalo only had him on the field for 28.9% of their plays (59.9% in his rookie season).
When adding his increase in scoring (seven TDs) and bigger plays (14.6 yards per catch), Kincaid brings a sleeper feel to the tight end position this draft season. Possible 80 catches for 1,000 yards and 10 scores if on the field for 17 games and receiving 65% of the Bills’ snaps.
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