Running Back · Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.
The case
- · Warren comes off a career season in rushing attempts (211), rushing yards (958), and touchdowns (8).
- · Pittsburgh had him on the field 47.3% of their snaps, just below Kenneth Gainwell (50.5%).
- · The Steelers’ running backs ranked second in catches (115) and targets (133) while accounting for 33.7% of Pittsburgh’s receptions (highest rate of his career). They scored 15 times on the ground.
- · A change in coaching staff should lead to the Steelers being more aggressive passing the ball.
- · Warren has slimmed down in the offseason, with the hopes of securing more touches in 2026.
- · 73 catches and 85 targets left the building when Kenneth Gainwell signed for Tampa.
Question marks
- · Rico Dowdle comes off two seasons with over 1,000 rushing yards with an improved floor in catches (39/249/3 and 39/297/1).
- · Does Warren offer a high enough ceiling to push his touches to a higher level, or does he work in a split role on early downs with an increased value on passing downs?
- · Dowdle has 16 touchdowns across his last 49 games, compared to 13 by Warren over 48 matchups.
- · Will Pittsburgh give big back Kalen Johnson goal-line and short-yardage carries in 2026?
Shawn's conclusion
I upped Warren’s pass-catching chances in 2026, with a similar role on the run game. His ceiling will be tied to his ability to add more touchdowns to his equation. Warren brings a higher consistency factor than offering impact value. Viable cheat RB2, but he doesn’t appear to offer a difference-maker skill set due to his split role.
More on Warren
Warren entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2022 after a strong final season at Oklahoma State, where he rushed for 1,216 yards and 11 touchdowns on 256 carries while adding 25 catches for 225 yards.
His rookie year in Pittsburgh was a limited but promising introduction. He saw minimal early usage (17 touches, 77 combined yards, and seven catches over his first four games) before flashing in a spot role against Buffalo with 63 yards and four catches. Warren followed that with back-to-back 75-plus-yard efforts in Weeks 8 and 10, then closed the season with a heavier workload over the final four games (43 touches, 173 rushing yards, a touchdown, and eight catches for 47 yards). He was on the field for 29.4% of Pittsburgh's snaps, compared to 65.7% for Najee Harris.
His 2023 season was a clearer step forward. Warren carved out a genuine role in the passing game with 61 catches for 370 yards, but averaged only 6.1 yards per reception. He was more impactful on the ground, rushing 149 times for 784 yards and four scores at 5.3 yards per carry, including six rushes of 20-plus yards. His best fantasy outing came in Week 11 (nine carries for 129 yards, a touchdown, and three catches for 13 yards). He was also remarkably consistent in the passing game late in the year, recording at least four catches in each of his final five games. His snap share climbed to 48.1%.
Warren regressed in 2024, partly due to missing two early games with a knee injury, and managed just 158 touches on the year. He was largely a non-factor through Pittsburgh's first eight matchups, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry on 41 rushes with 12 catches for 67 yards. He found more of a rhythm down the stretch, scoring between 10.00 and 16.50 fantasy points in six of his last nine games and peaking at 17 touches in Week 16. Still, he has totaled only six touchdowns across 48 career games, a scoring rate that limits his fantasy ceiling considerably.
Surprisingly, Warren played second fiddle at running back for Pittsburgh last season behind Kenneth Gainwell (50.5% to 47.3% in snaps). He finished 18th in PPR fantasy points (222.40), with one impact game (14/143/2 with two catches for eight yards). Warren scored between 11.00 and 20.00 fantasy points in nine of his 16 games, giving him a consistency factor as an RB2. His season ended with 1,291 combined yards, eight touchdowns, and 40 catches on a career-best 251 touches. He missed one game with a knee issue while battling a minor ankle issue midseason.
Despite the Steelers’ back success last year, Warren comes off the board as the 28th running back in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Football Championship with an ADP of 78. His ceiling has the best chance of repeating and rising if Aaron Rodgers starts. My early thought is 50 catches with about five touches and 1,200 combined yards.
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