Trevor Lawrence — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

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Lawrence's 2022 season suggested a higher ceiling down the road. He totaled 4,404 combined yards, 30 touchdowns, and just eight interceptions, finishing 7th in fantasy scoring (354.05 points). He topped 300 yards six times and showed big-play ability with standout performances in Weeks 14 (386/4) and 15 (339/4). His main knock was his 7.0 yards per attempt, and defenses kept him in check often; he threw one or fewer touchdown passes in 11 of 19 games, including the playoffs.

2023 was a grind. Lawrence battled through a left knee injury, added an ankle issue in December, missed Week 17 with a concussion, and ultimately ended the year with an AC joint injury. Despite the wear, his numbers were relatively stable (4,355 combined yards and 25 touchdowns) in one fewer game. But the efficiency and explosiveness weren't there. He topped 300 yards just twice, had two or fewer scores in 13 games, and half his starts fell below 20.00 fantasy points. He still finished 12th at quarterback (323.70 points), though it felt like a quiet, underwhelming season given his ceiling.

2024 started poorly and ended worse. Through the first nine weeks, Lawrence threw for under 200 yards in five games and never threw for three touchdowns in a single contest. His rushing contribution (26 carries, 119 yards, and 3 TDs) was modest. In Week 9, a left AC joint injury sidelined him for two games, and after returning, a concussion ended his day again. Jacksonville eventually shut him down for the season, with Lawrence undergoing surgery to repair his shoulder, closing the book on his most injury-plagued year yet.

Over his first 10 games in a new offense, Lawrence battled a low completion rate (59.8%) while gaining only 6.4 yards per pass attempt, leading to him gaining 233 combined yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game (19.98 FPPG). His best fantasy value came in Week 5 (30.45).

The Jags’ offense jelled over their final eight matchups (including the postseason), highlighted by a stellar run by Jacksonville’s starting quarterback. Lawrence scored over 21.50 fantasy points in each game, while delivering at least three touchdowns in five contests. His best value came in Week 15 (381 combined yards and five scores) and Week 16 (299 combined yards with four touchdowns).

He averaged 29.04 fantasy points per game over this span in four-point passing touchdown formats, lifting Lawrence to fourth in quarterback scoring (393.25 fantasy points) and scoring 25 combined touchdowns (a career-high 38 TDs for the year).

In the National Fantasy Football Championship in mid-May, Lawrence ranks ninth in quarterback. The Jaguars are four deep at wide receiver, with two viable options at the tight end position. His floor is helped by his value in the run game (82/359/9). His completion rate (60.0%) has been an area of weakness in back-to-back years. Lawrence is trending toward 4,500 combined yards, with some pullback expected in touchdowns, while just reaching the prime of his career.