Quarterback · Minnesota Vikings
Kyler Murray — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.
The case
- · The Vikings want to air the ball out, and they revived Sam Darnold’s career in 2024 (59.7% completion rate, 63 touchdowns, 56 interceptions, and 6.7 yards per pass attempt over his first 66 games in the NFL).
- · Justin Jefferson (WR5) remains a first-round fantasy stud in drafts.
- · Jordan Addison brings big-play ability (13.7 yards per catch) with 24 touchdowns across his first 45 career games.
- · Minnesota improved their wide receiver depth by signing Jauan Jennings (132/1,618/15 over his last 30 games).
- · Murray’s ability to run (532/3,193/32 over 87 games – 6.0 yards per carry) will turn many negative plays into first downs on the ground.
- · He was the 10th-best quarterback in 2024 in NFFC scoring (381.75), and Murray didn’t play well.
Question marks
- · Murray hasn’t been fantasy-relevant since 2021 (4,210 combined yards with 29 touchdowns), coming after an impact sophomore campaign (4,790 combined yards and 37 touchdowns).
- · He had been a dink-and-dunk quarterback over his seven seasons in Arizona (7.1 yards per pass attempt or fewer in six different years).
- · Murray missed a combined 27 games in 2022, 2023, and 2025.
- · The Vikings’ offensive line gave up 60 sacks last year, compared to 49 in 2024.
Shawn's conclusion
With a healthy 17 games of starts, Murray should set a new high in pass attempts while offering a solid floor in the run game. My high ranking of the Vikings’ new quarterback is placing faith in Minnesota’s receiving core while reflecting on previous seasons when Kevin O’Connell threw the ball early and often (2021 – 604, 2022 – 672, and 2023 – 631). Murray falls into the quarterback deep sleeper category, with plenty of wiggle room based on his free ADP.
More on Murray
Murray's 2022 campaign got off to a sluggish start across his first seven starts, producing just one standout fantasy performance (305 combined yards and two touchdowns) alongside a pair of playable outings (22.55 and 25.95 points in four-point passing TD formats). A Week 8 surge (362/3) briefly hinted at a turnaround before a hamstring injury and torn left ACL wiped out most of his remaining season. He showed his most consistent rushing form over his last five full starts (38/382/1), but his passing efficiency cratered to a career-worst 6.1 yards per attempt, with zero completions of 40 or more yards all year.
Arizona eased Murray into their lineup in Week 10 in 2023, and despite still working his way back from knee surgery, he was a more effective runner than most anticipated (44/244/3 yards across eight starts. He scored between 20.00 and 27.00 fantasy points in six games, even though his passing game produced just one productive outing (232/3). His 6.7 yards per attempt was a modest improvement, and extrapolating his final stat line across a full 17-game season would have placed him sixth among quarterbacks.
Murray rebounded in 2024, finishing 10th in fantasy scoring at 350.75 points in four-point passing TD leagues. Three of his best games (325/3, 287/3, and 264/4) all came at home, and his best passing weeks arrived in Week 8 (307/2) and Week 17 (321/1). On the ground, he averaged 7.3 yards per carry and totaled 78 attempts for 572 yards and five touchdowns, his strongest rushing season since 2020. The one persistent weakness remained deep passing. Murray connected on just four completions of 40-plus yards over the last three seasons combined (36 games), a notable decline from the 24 he produced across 2019 and 2020.
A foot sprain in 2025 led to Murray missing the final 12 games of the year. He opened the season with a dink-and-dunk approach to the passing game (6.0 yards per pass attempt), helping his completion rate (68.3%). His legs (29/183/1) aligned with his recent career path while failing to fire in the passing game (163/2, 220/1, 159/1, 200/2, and 220/0). The success of the Cardinals’ passing game and receiving production after Murray went down with an injury should be more of a red flag about his ceiling as an NFL-winning quarterback.
Murray comes into the summer as a mid-tier QB2 (ranked 18th) in the National Fantasy Football Championship. His career body of work, matched up with his receiving talent, suggests 4,500 combined yards with a run at 30 combined touchdowns. Based on his price point, I’m intrigued by him as a late-value quarterback.
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