Quarterback · Denver Broncos
Bo Nix — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.
The case
- · Nix ranked 8th in 2024 (412.95) and 2025 (396.15) in quarterback scoring in the NFFC despite the latter feeling much less impactful.
- · He had a floor rating (20.00 fantasy points or more) in 58.8% of his 17 starts in four-point passing touchdown formats, highlighted by three impact days (32.10, 42.75, and 30.00).
- · Denver threw the ball 57.3% of the time, compared to 55.3% in 2024.
- · The Broncos’ running backs remain active in the passing game over the past two seasons (96/528/4 on 119 targets and 87/616/5 on 118 targets) while gaining only 5.5 and 7.1 yards per catch.
- · Hidden in Nix’s 2025 stats was a league-high 612 pass attempts (tied for third in completions – 388). He was sacked only 22 times (3.5% of the time).
- · WR Jayden Waddle improves the Broncos’ receiving depth and their ability to make big plays.
Question marks
- · Nix had right ankle surgery in late January, followed by a clean-up procedure in the backend of April. The Broncos expect him to be full go in training camp.
- · Over his final eight games in 2025, Nix averaged 263 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions, which was well below his exciting finish in 2024 (270 combined yards with 21 passing touchdowns and six interceptions).
- · Over his first two seasons, he gained short yards per pass attempt (6.7 and 6.4), with 33 and 30 touchdowns.
Shawn's conclusion
The Broncos’ offense lacked luster last season. They have depth and talent at wide receiver in 2026, and Sean Payton wants to throw the ball. Nix projects as a target cheat QB1 or an excellent backup quarterback in the fantasy market. On the downside, Denver has a top-tier defense, which could lead to more fourth-quarter runs when playing from a big lead. I expect Nix to have a progress year in 2026.
More on Nix
Denver's offensive line held up well in Nix's rookie season, limiting him to 24 sacks, and the scheme leaned on the running back dump-off heavily (96 such plays). However, those receivers averaged just 5.5 yards per catch, underscoring the need for a more explosive pass-catching back out of the backfield. It's a dynamic Sean Payton had at his disposal for years in New Orleans, and one Denver has yet to fully replicate.
The first four weeks of last season raised real questions. Nix averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game but managed only 660 passing yards (165 per game), with a single touchdown against four interceptions and a 60.1% completion rate. His legs provided some relief (23 carries, 110 yards, and two TDs), but it wasn't enough to quiet the concern surrounding his long-term fit.
What followed was a remarkable turnaround. From Week 8 through the postseason, Nix was one of the better quarterbacks in football (2,891 combined yards, 26 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions over 11 games), completing 69.0% of his 365 attempts. He threw for 300-plus yards twice (307/4 TD and 321/4 TD, both at home), posted at least two touchdown passes in eight games, and reached three or more scores five times.
The home/road split is worth following. Nix averaged 7.6 yards per attempt at home with 19 passing touchdowns, compared to just 5.9 yards per attempt on the road with 11 scores, a meaningful gap that defenses will look to exploit.
Nix finished last year ranked seventh in fantasy points (357.45) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. His passing opportunity increased by 7.4%, but his passing touchdowns (25) and completion rate (63.4%) declined. Nix had a slight pullback in the run game (83/356/5). The black mark on his 2025 resume was 11 games with one pass touchdown or fewer over his 17 starts.
His top five days in fantasy points all came at home (42.75, 32.10, 30.00, 27.85, and 27.35) across 10 matchups. Nix finished with 12 combined touchdowns on the road (eight games) while averaging only 208 passing yards. His season ended in the playoffs due to a right ankle injury that required surgery.
Sean Payton wants to grind out first downs via the pass, and he has the best defense of his coaching career. Nix slipped to QB16 in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Football Championship. To be a trusted week-to-week starter, he must play better on the road, make bigger plays, and increase his completion rate.
His floor should be 4,500 combined yards and 30 touchdowns, while understanding Nix could be significantly better in his third year in the NFL.
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