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Wide Receiver · New England Patriots

A.J. Brown — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

Shawn's rank: WR18NFFC ADP 15Bye 11Updated July 30, 2026

Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.

The case

  • · Brown escapes the rush dominate offenses of the Eagles, which relied on heavy ground scoring inside the 10-yards line by their quarterback and top running back over the past few seasons.
  • · He ranked 5th (291.60), 20th (216.90), and 12th (220.30) in PPR scoring over the past three seasons while missing four games in 2024 and two in 2025.
  • · Brown has gained over 1,000 receiving yards six times in his seven years in the NFL, with his only failure (63/869/5) being due to four missed starts.
  • · He posted a floor of seven touchdowns six times.
  • · Last year, Philadelphia threw the ball 497 times, only five fewer than New England (502).
  • · Drake Maye led the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.9) and completion rate (72.0%) last year, without having a true impact receiver.

Question marks

  • · Will New England give Brown a high-volume target opportunity in 2026?
  • · In his third year in the NFL, will the Patriots increase their passing opportunity by at least 10%
  • · Will Drake Maye give Brown chase when facing jump ball situations?
  • · Brown scored under 5.0 fantasy points in three games last year, highlighted by dull stats across his first seven matchups (31/408/3 on 54 targets).
  • · New England faces @KC, @NYJ, and DEN from Week 15 to Week 17?

Shawn's conclusion

Stefon Diggs had 85 catches for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns last year, but he was only on the field for WR3 snaps. Does his floor, added to Brown’s ability to make big plays and score, paint an impact WR1 season coming? All the signs point to Brown being a top 10 wideout in 2026, except for my early projections. They will certainly be addressed in my next version. I have Brown mispriced, and I’m not proud of it. Next step: 90+ catches with double-digit scores.

More on Brown

After months of discussion, the Patriots finally pushed the Brown trade deal with the Philadelphia Eagles into the end zone. New England gained a top-tier WR1 while sending two draft picks to Philadelphia (2028 first and 2027 fifth).

Philadelphia's pass-catchers benefited from a dramatic shift in offensive philosophy in 2022, with the Eagles targeting wide receivers 81 more times than the previous year. Brown was the primary beneficiary, setting career marks in receptions (88), receiving yards (1,496), and targets (145) while hauling in 11 touchdowns and averaging an eye-catching 17.0 yards per catch. He turned 26.1% of his receptions into gains of 20 or more yards, with five standout performances driving much of the production (10/155, 6/156/3, 8/119/2, 9/181, and 6/103). For context, he averaged 8.5 targets in his final Tennessee season, a 23.1% usage jump in his first season with the Eagles.

Brown stumbled out of the gate in 2024 with back-to-back quiet outings (7/79 and 4/29) before turning in one of the more dominant seven-game stretches a receiver can have, posting lines of 9/131, 9/175/2, 6/127, 7/131, 10/137/1, 8/130/2, and 7/66/1. He averaged 16.0 yards per catch and 25.96 PPR fantasy points across that run. The connection with Jalen Hurts cooled considerably over the final eight games, with only four matchups worth noting (5/37/1, 8/114, 9/94, and 6/80). Brown logged just 12 snaps in Week 18 and sat out the playoff opener with a knee issue, finishing fifth among wide receivers in PPR scoring at 291.60 points.

Coming off back-to-back top-six finishes at the position, Brown opened up 2024 on the shelf with a hamstring injury, missing three games. When healthy, he showed flashes — a 5/119/1 debut, two productive follow-ups (6/116/1 and 5/89/1), and four quality games down the stretch (5/109, 6/109/1, 8/110/1, and 8/97/1). He also posted a floor of double-digit fantasy points in four additional contests (5/84, 5/65, 5/66, and 3/36/1). Philadelphia held him out in Week 18, and his postseason highlight was a 6/96/1 effort in a shootout against Washington, a performance made more impressive given he was battling a knee injury over the final two months of the year. His missed time led to Brown finishing 20th in PPR scoring (216.90) while ranking much higher in fantasy points per game (16.68 – 5th) for wideouts.

Consistency was an issue for Brown in 2025, highlighted by six games with fewer than 8.00 fantasy points (including the postseason). He sat out Week 18 again while missing Week 8 with a hamstring issue. When at his best, the Eagles’ top wideout scored over 20.00 PPR fantasy points in four matchups (6/109/1, 4/121/2, 8/110/1, and 10/132/2). From Week 11 to Week 16, Philadelphia gave him double-digit targets in five games (11, 10, 12, 13, 2, and 12). Only 11 wide receivers outscored Brown for the season (220.30 fantasy points) across his 15 starts (14.69 FPPG).

Brown slipped into an excellent opportunity with Drake Maye, who excelled in many big passing plays last year. In early June, in the National Fantasy Football, Brown is the eighth wide receiver drafted with an ADP of 20 (min – 13 and max – 26). New England has wide receiver depth, but their newly acquired target will command plenty of targets. Let’s go 85 catches for 1,300 yards and 10 scores with one missed game.

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