Wide Receiver · Houston Texans
Nico Collins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis by Shawn Childs, from his 2026 guide — his words, unedited.
The case
- · Collins has never played 17 games in a season. He missed two contests last year, five in 2024, two in 2023, and seven in 2022.
- · He’s gained over 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive years, but with regression in receiving touchdowns (8, 7, and 6).
- · Collins comes off a career high in targets (120). He’s gained 15.6 yards per catch across his last 42 games, highlighted by 57 plays gaining at least 20 yards (14 of those reached the 40-yard mark).
- · Over the past three seasons, Collins ranks 12th (260.40), 23rd (210.60), and 8th (227.20) in PPR fantasy points. He averaged 5.2 catches for 82 yards and 0.52 touchdowns over this span (16.52 FPPG).
Question marks
- · Houston has a top defense, and they would like to run the ball well to control the clock.
- · C.J. Stroud has regression in passing yards (4,108, 3,727, and 3,041) and touchdowns (23, 20, and 19) over his second and third seasons in the NFL.
- · In his rookie season, Stroud showed the ability to beat defenses in the deep passing game (66 completions of 20 yards or more, with nine gaining 40 yards or more). He has 81/16 occasions over his last 31 starts, leading to him gaining 7.1 yards per pass attempt.
- · The Texans’ offensive line allowed only 31 sacks last year, but Houston continued to rank below the best teams in the NFL on completion rate (62.5%).
- · His fantasy playoff schedule (JAC, @PHI, and @GB) has two cold weather sites in late December and early January.
Shawn's conclusion
Collins has a top-five wide receiver profile if he can stay on the field for a whole season, with more upside if he adds a few more scores. He brings size and big-play ability, and the Texans have enough offensive weapons to be a much better passing team. I like what Collins brings to the table, but he can lose the coin flip decision to some other wideouts who have a better health card rating.
More on Collins
Collins was one of my misses in 2023, finishing 12th among wide receivers in PPR scoring with 260.40 fantasy points despite missing two games and playing only three snaps in another contest. When the matchup was right, he was electric, highlighted by posting five standout performances (7/146/1, 7/168/2, 7/104/1, 9/191/1, and 9/195/1), four of which came at home, where he averaged 17.98 fantasy points per game compared to just 11.70 on the road. His combination of a 73.4% catch rate and 16.2 yards per reception was elite, and he racked up 20-plus-yard gains on 25 plays.
In 2024, opened even more promisingly. Collins was outstanding over his first four games (6/117, 8/135/1, 4/86, and 12/151/1 on 43 targets) before a hamstring injury forced him out nine snaps into Week 5, costing him the next five games.
By the time he returned, the Texans' offense had lost its early-season momentum. Collins showed flashes in Week 12 (5/92/1), Week 13 (8/119), and the playoff opener (7/122/1), but his other six appearances were considerably quieter (28 catches for 309 yards and three touchdowns on 43 targets), averaging 15.80 PPR fantasy points over his final nine starts. His missed time led to Collins slipping to 23rd in PPR fantasy points (210.60 – 17.78 per game for all 14 games played in 2024).
Heading into 2026, Collins has gained over 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive seasons despite missing nine games. He comes off a career high in targets (120 – eight per game) while sitting out Week 8 with a concussion and resting in the game of the year. A second concussion led to an early exit in Houston's first postseason game, followed by a missed start vs. the Patriots.
Collins gained over 100 receiving yards in only three games (8/104/1, 7/136, and 4/121) in 2025 while posting two other impactful showings (9/92/1 and 3/85/2). The Texans gave him double-digit targets in six contests. Over his last 42 games in the regular season, he averaged 5.2 catches for 82 yards and 0.52 touchdowns per game (16.52 FPPG and 15.6 yards per catch). Despite missing two starts, Collins was the eighth-best wide receiver in PPR formats (227.20 fantasy points) last season.
At this point, his floor should be about 70 catches for 1,100 and seven scores by pricing in a couple of off days. With a progression to 135 targets (his 2025 target opportunity), Collins would come in closer to 85 catches for 1,300 yards and 10 scores. If the Texans’ passing game regains its 2023 form, he will be even better.
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