Patrick Mahomes — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

Mahomes' 2022 season was his best yet on paper. With nearly identical volume to prior years (435 completions on 648 attempts), he set career highs in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) while adding a rushing dimension (61 carries, 358 yards, and four TDs). He generated 20-plus yard completions on 73 plays, with 13 of those reaching 40 yards or more.

Mahomes posted a career-low 7.0 yards per attempt, and his touchdown total dropped to 27 in 2023, well below his three-year average of 41. His completion rate climbed to a personal best (67.2%), and he ran more than ever (75/389), but Kansas City's receiving corps was visibly diminished. He threw for 300-plus yards in three of his first seven starts, then managed it just twice more over his final 13 games. A 12-game stretch beginning in Week 8 led to only 19.47 fantasy points per game in four-point touchdown formats, a telling sign of diminishing weapons around him.

Further regression came in 2024, when Mahomes set another career low in yards per attempt (6.8) while reaching a new high in completion rate (67.5%), and his big-play production nearly vanished, with just four completions of 40-plus yards compared to 66 over his previous 95 starts. He topped 300 passing yards only three times all season. His year opened with negative outings (six touchdowns and eight interceptions over the first six weeks), numbers that would have buried most quarterbacks in the standings.

But Mahomes steadied the ship over the final 10 regular-season games, averaging 23.16 fantasy points per game in four-point formats, averaging 272 combined yards with 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He topped 30.00 fantasy points twice (Week 12 and the conference championship) and finished with a 15-1 regular season record (the best of his career), despite what was statistically his most uneven stretch as a pro.

Last year, the direction of the Chiefs’ offense was finally exposed in the win/loss column. Mahomes comes off a career-low completion rate (62.7%), with a slight rebound in his yards per pass attempt (7.1). His Superman cape was still visible based on a path to gain combined yards (4,868) and touchdowns (33). Unfortunately, Mahomes suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in mid-December. His recovery time should be nine months, suggesting that he will be borderline ready for the start of the 2026 season.

On his winning days in 2025, Mahomes posted five impact games in fantasy points (28.60, 30.00, 30.90, 34.05, and 32.05). He also delivered five subpar outings (15.40, 14.00, 17.10, 11.90, and 15.95).

In the early draft season, Mahomes draws a QB2 price tag in the National Fantasy Football Championship as game managers wait for new updates on his timetable to return to game action. I don’t like the offensive receiving structure of the Chiefs heading into 2026, but Mahomes makes players better and wins games, and Kansas City has a great coaching staff.

Take the early plunge with Mahomes, as his slow start to the year can be covered by another quarterback—any later investment hinges on his future rise in ADP, paired with his outlook for Week 1.