Justin Herbert — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

Herbert's 2022 season got off to a strong start before a rib injury sustained from a late hit in Week 2 appeared to sap his effectiveness over the following weeks. His rushing contributions also dried up significantly, with no rushing touchdowns after being a factor on the ground in prior seasons. Despite the setbacks, he set career highs in completions (477), attempts (699), and completion rate (68.2%), but threw two or fewer touchdowns in 15 of his final 16 starts.

In 2023, Herbert averaged nearly five fewer pass attempts per game through his first 12 starts, with his best fantasy outings coming in Week 3 (416/3), Week 8 (299/3), and Week 10 (338/4). He showed improvement as a runner (52/228/3), but his yards per attempt (6.9) dipped below his previous level (7.4). A finger injury in Week 14 ended his season early.

The 2024 season saw the Chargers dial back his workload to 29.6 pass attempts per game, casting Herbert in more of a game-manager role. He sleepwalked through the first five weeks with five uninspiring performances (839 combined yards with six touchdowns) before finding a groove in the middle of the season (9.0 yards per pass attempt), highlighted by a stretch where about a quarter of his completions went for 20 or more yards.

Herbert eclipsed 300 passing yards just twice all season (once in Week 18) and only topped two touchdown passes in a single game (281/3). The postseason was a disaster, as he threw four interceptions, more than he had in his first 17 starts combined (3). The silver lining was a strong finish to the regular season, with nine of his 23 touchdowns coming over the final four games.

After nine games last season, Herbert was on a much higher pace, leading to him averaging 299 combined yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game (22.81 FPPG in four-point passing touchdown leagues). He completed 67.7% of his passes over this span, with three highlight games (350/3, 451/3, and 307/3).

Unfortunately, his offensive line's struggles led to a poor finish over his final eight starts (218 combined yards per game with nine scores). The Chargers allowed three sacks or more in 11 of their 17 regular-season games, with eight coming over their final nine matchups. Herbert finished 10th in quarterback scoring (339.15), up two spots from 2024 (329.10). He played through the back half of the year with a left-hand issue that required surgery. The Chargers rested him in Week 18.

In the early draft season, Herbert is the sixth-ranked quarterback in the National Fantasy Football Championship. He brings a winning foundation, and his receiving corps should be much better this year. Possible 4,500 combined yards with a run at 35 touchdowns.