MLB Projections

Shawn's 2026 projection lines beside the season to date. Two data vintages, both dated below.

Projections: Shawn's workbook, updated 2026-08-03 (preseason — rosters have moved since). Actuals: through 2026-08-02.

MLB data view — projections and prop modeling are NFL-only for now.

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Proj IP	K	ERA	WHIP	SV	K now	BF	GS
1	Tarik Skubal	DET	SP	202	244	2.47	0.90	0	116	374	16
1	Seth Lugo	KC	SP	157	140	3.95	1.23	0	99	548	23
1	Blake Snell	LAD	SP	138	171	2.80	1.17	0	5	18	1
1	Bryce Miller	SEA	SP	110	100	4.02	1.26	0	74	284	12
1	Justin Wrobleski	LAD	SP	89	88	3.91	1.29	0	87	449	17
1	Connor Prielipp	MIN	SP	27	31	3.98	1.47	0	81	336	15
2	Paul Skenes	PIT	SP	195	256	2.24	0.93	0	156	512	23
2	Cade Horton	CHC	SP	151	146	3.26	1.10	0	4	26	2
2	JP Sears	SD	SP	138	121	4.34	1.28	0	25	143	6
2	Edward Cabrera	CHC	SP	130	143	3.66	1.31	0	65	309	14
2	Hayden Birdsong	SF	SP	100	110	4.16	1.50	0	—	—	—
2	Taijuan Walker	PHI	SP	94	68	4.95	1.39	0	17	115	4
3	Sandy Alcantara	MIA	SP	189	172	3.64	1.18	0	120	649	24
3	Chris Sale	ATL	SP	183	234	2.59	1.05	0	143	471	20
3	Josiah Gray	WAS	SP	143	132	4.60	1.46	0	—	—	—
3	Casey Mize	DET	SP	138	130	3.94	1.26	0	85	341	16
3	Quinn Priester	MIL	SP	120	108	3.94	1.26	0	—	—	—
3	McCade Brown	COL	SP	20	20	4.30	1.41	0	—	—	—
4	Jacob deGrom	TEX	SP	180	204	2.71	0.91	0	135	468	21
4	Nick Lodolo	CIN	SP	151	163	3.42	1.14	0	50	279	12
4	Kumar Rocker	TEX	SP	135	143	3.64	1.22	0	98	463	19
4	Max Scherzer	TOR	SP	109	107	3.95	1.20	0	23	140	8
4	Jacob Latz	TEX	SP	100	95	4.02	1.39	0	51	182	1
4	Mitch Bratt	AZ	SP	16	17	3.88	1.36	0	12	98	5
5	Logan Gilbert	SEA	SP	192	228	2.91	0.97	0	139	522	22
5	Michael King	SD	SP	130	131	3.75	1.26	0	109	515	22
5	Logan Henderson	MIL	SP	130	157	2.99	1.08	0	54	169	9
5	Tyler Mahle	SF	SP	104	86	3.67	1.14	0	89	404	18
5	Chris Paddack	MIA/CIN/TEX	SP	84	75	4.29	1.26	0	40	267	9
5	Jean Cabrera	PHI	SP	20	19	4.37	1.44	0	—	—	—
6	Garrett Crochet	BOS	SP	198	240	3.02	1.07	0	37	138	6
6	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	SP	153	199	3.18	1.29	0	195	480	21
6	Jameson Taillon	CHC	SP	149	120	4.13	1.15	0	68	326	15
6	Cody Ponce	TOR	SP	110	103	3.94	1.26	0	3	10	1
6	Steven Matz	TB	SP	82	69	4.18	1.23	0	44	245	10
7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	SP	174	207	2.54	0.98	0	121	509	20
7	Ryne Nelson	AZ	SP	173	154	3.63	1.14	0	62	355	15
7	Michael Wacha	KC	SP	157	125	4.03	1.23	0	111	563	22
7	Sean Manaea	NYM	SP	99	102	3.69	1.20	0	88	401	9
7	Cade Povich	BAL	SP	77	80	3.97	1.37	0	12	82	3
8	Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	SP	195	208	2.84	1.07	0	168	603	23
8	Luis Castillo	SEA	SP	182	176	3.77	1.20	0	86	443	17
8	Aaron Civale	ATH/CHC	SP	159	141	4.10	1.24	0	64	368	15
8	Quinn Matthews	STL	SP	125	143	4.19	1.61	0	—	—	—
8	Nick Martinez	TB	SP	115	98	4.00	1.24	0	69	497	21
9	Hunter Brown	HOU	SP	192	215	3.01	1.07	0	55	223	10
9	Michael McGreevy	STL	SP	182	152	4.21	1.29	0	76	469	21
9	Matthew Boyd	CHC	SP	171	156	3.65	1.17	0	60	274	12
9	Sean Burke	CWS	SP	138	142	4.24	1.43	0	140	505	18
9	Trevor McDonald	SF	SP	81	72	3.93	1.31	3	57	310	14
10	Shane Baz	BAL	SP	168	181	3.64	1.26	0	111	551	22
10	Matthew Liberatore	STL	SP	159	143	4.13	1.30	0	107	476	22
10	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	SP	151	196	2.73	1.03	0	95	340	14
10	Hunter Barco	PIT	SP	105	111	3.88	1.36	0	10	75	0
10	German Marquez	SD	SP	88	79	4.27	1.31	0	36	228	10
11	Bryan Woo	SEA	SP	171	175	2.98	0.93	0	122	497	21
11	Luis Severino	ATH	SP	160	135	4.08	1.29	0	65	271	12
11	Ian Seymour	TB	SP	157	171	3.28	1.17	0	90	323	7
11	Ben Brown	CHC	SP	105	121	3.77	1.37	0	65	265	8
11	Patrick Sandoval	BOS	SP	80	77	3.88	1.40	0	20	86	4
12	Aaron Nola	PHI	SP	189	192	3.86	1.22	0	116	498	22
12	Joe Ryan	MIN	SP	165	185	3.24	1.04	0	135	498	22
12	Braxton Ashcraft	PIT	SP	124	123	3.61	1.29	3	140	526	22
12	Grant Holmes	ATL	SP	102	105	3.90	1.34	0	87	443	20
12	David Festa	MIN	SP	68	76	3.83	1.34	0	—	—	—
13	Max Fried	NYY	SP	186	180	3.28	1.13	0	68	290	13
13	Trevor Rogers	BAL	SP	165	154	3.56	1.23	0	89	463	20
13	Robby Snelling	MIA	SP	148	155	3.83	1.34	0	2	22	1
13	Landen Roupp	SF	SP	122	118	3.97	1.43	0	120	499	22
13	Randy Vasquez	SD	SP	105	90	4.43	1.39	0	64	414	17
14	Eury Perez	MIA	SP	162	191	2.92	1.06	0	112	423	19
14	David Peterson	NYM/CHC	SP	157	141	3.98	1.34	0	85	453	14
14	Trey Yesavage	TOR	SP	140	181	3.14	1.29	0	91	379	17
14	Brad Lord	WSH	SP	121	105	4.03	1.27	0	52	248	1
14	Jose Urquidy	PIT	SP	88	73	4.38	1.28	0	6	36	0
15	Kyle Bradish	BAL	SP	171	186	3.09	1.11	0	117	513	22
15	Ryan Pepiot	TB	SP	165	169	3.62	1.17	0	—	—	—
15	Joe Boyle	TB	SP	128	149	3.38	1.38	0	16	66	3
15	Walker Buehler	SD	SP	102	88	4.63	1.43	0	92	455	22
15	Daniel Espino	CLE	SP	66	86	3.25	1.34	0	12	27	0
16	George Kirby	SEA	SP	180	190	3.30	1.10	0	110	523	21
16	Jose Quintana	COL	SP	168	126	4.55	1.31	0	20	181	9
16	Zack Littell	WSH	SP	165	141	4.26	1.22	0	68	454	14
16	Jack Flaherty	DET	SP	159	184	3.66	1.28	0	102	389	19
16	Spencer Schwellenbach	ATL	SP	57	54	3.77	1.19	0	—	—	—
17	Jack Leiter	TEX	SP	162	169	3.44	1.22	0	83	355	15
17	Anthony Kay	CWS	SP	146	125	4.26	1.36	0	90	494	21
17	Chase Burns	CIN	SP	146	201	2.86	1.10	0	137	477	21
17	Kris Bubic	KC	SP	114	110	3.40	1.21	0	51	207	9
17	Kade Anderson	SEA	SP	46	58	3.47	1.24	0	—	—	—
18	Nolan McLean	NYM	SP	160	179	3.04	1.12	0	148	522	22
18	Chris Bassitt	BAL	SP	154	145	4.06	1.33	0	37	261	10
18	Gerrit Cole	NYY	SP	138	142	3.19	1.05	0	78	302	13
18	Logan Allen	CLE	SP	101	87	4.38	1.40	0	10	38	1
18	JR Ritchie	ATL	SP	90	88	3.66	1.26	0	53	256	8
19	Nick Pivetta	SD	SP	174	189	3.29	1.10	0	24	66	4
19	Ranger Suarez	BOS	SP	156	149	3.59	1.21	0	105	409	19
19	Andrew Painter	PHI	SP	130	140	3.88	1.33	0	59	322	13
19	Foster Griffin	WSH	SP	92	79	4.32	1.32	0	116	524	22
19	Roki Sasaki	LAD	SP	76	81	3.81	1.37	0	101	423	19
20	Merrill Kelly	AZ	SP	174	155	3.90	1.20	0	76	498	20
20	Freddy Peralta	NYM	SP	165	189	3.33	1.17	0	113	512	22
20	Richard Fitts	STL	SP	138	126	4.01	1.24	0	—	—	—
20	Stephen Kolek	KC	SP	75	65	3.99	1.33	0	34	224	10
20	Michael Soroka	AZ	SP	68	71	3.66	1.20	1	79	333	15
21	Tanner Bibee	CLE	SP	189	195	3.50	1.18	0	100	537	23
21	Sonny Gray	BOS	SP	154	154	3.63	1.21	0	98	461	20
21	Zach Eflin	BAL	SP	131	115	4.03	1.20	0	7	17	1
21	Brandon Sproat	MIL	SP	99	94	3.91	1.30	0	96	398	18
21	Colin Rea	CHC	SP	86	70	4.45	1.28	0	90	509	19
22	MacKenzie Gore	TEX	SP	171	191	3.67	1.33	0	136	523	23
22	Drew Rasmussen	TB	SP	166	153	3.11	1.02	0	122	461	21
22	Braxton Garrett	MIA	SP	135	128	3.86	1.24	0	5	28	2
22	Erick Fedde	CWS	SP	110	82	4.69	1.38	0	74	442	12
22	J.T. Ginn	ATH	SP	92	93	4.06	1.34	0	100	457	19
23	Dylan Cease	TOR	SP	179	213	3.35	1.29	0	174	481	20
23	Taj Bradley	MIN	SP	162	169	3.77	1.26	0	141	533	22
23	Simeon Woods Richardson	MIN/TOR	SP	156	143	4.06	1.30	0	31	265	10
23	Chase Dollander	COL	SP	153	158	4.34	1.51	0	47	189	3
23	Jake Irvin	WSH	SP	83	68	4.60	1.33	0	59	248	12
24	Andrew Abbott	CIN	SP	171	162	3.77	1.20	0	95	528	23
24	Zack Wheeler	PHI	SP	157	169	3.20	1.08	0	126	403	18
24	Bryce Elder	ATL	SP	154	135	4.16	1.30	0	101	504	21
24	Michael Lorenzen	COL	SP	148	119	4.77	1.43	0	80	502	22
24	Dean Kremer	BAL	SP	90	81	4.06	1.28	0	38	153	7
25	Cam Schlittler	NYY	SP	165	198	3.17	1.21	0	165	538	23
25	Gavin Williams	CLE	SP	157	166	3.62	1.29	0	178	551	23
25	Davis Martin	CWS	SP	108	91	4.24	1.31	0	106	488	21
25	Connelly Early	BOS	SP	95	113	3.24	1.29	0	93	390	17
25	Emerson Hancock	SEA	SP	61	55	4.25	1.33	0	102	438	20
26	Shota Imanaga	CHC	SP	177	159	3.70	1.03	0	119	510	22
26	Tomoyuki Sugano	COL	SP	159	113	4.78	1.28	0	58	429	19
26	Zebby Matthews	MIN	SP	143	162	3.58	1.24	0	69	341	14
26	Kyle Harrison	MIL	SP	133	133	3.91	1.31	0	101	341	17
26	Payton Tolle	BOS	SP	68	73	4.97	1.34	0	110	415	18
27	Framber Valdez	DET	SP	192	186	3.40	1.18	0	98	533	22
27	Noah Cameron	KC	SP	168	155	3.80	1.22	0	107	499	20
27	Mick Abel	MIN	SP	146	138	3.93	1.28	0	23	93	3
27	Drew Anderson	DET	SP	81	85	3.80	1.33	0	78	276	2
27	Thomas White	MIA	SP	60	73	3.73	1.50	0	—	—	—
28	Shane Bieber	TOR	SP	144	136	3.57	1.13	0	22	141	7
28	Shane McClanahan	TB	SP	143	165	2.96	1.06	0	91	409	20
28	Chad Patrick	MIL	SP	117	122	3.77	1.31	0	73	337	6
28	Tanner McDougal	CHW	SP	92	107	3.92	1.51	0	—	—	—
28	Caden Dana	LAA	SP	74	73	4.40	1.43	0	—	—	—
29	Zac Gallen	AZ	SP	189	191	3.42	1.20	0	61	440	19
29	Cristian Javier	HOU	SP	146	152	3.70	1.27	0	21	101	4
29	Jacob Lopez	ATH	SP	112	122	3.82	1.31	0	61	326	14
29	Ryan Bergert	KC	SP	95	96	3.88	1.38	0	—	—	—
29	Ryan Feltner	COL	SP	92	80	4.45	1.42	0	57	334	16

Actuals join by name within the MLB namespace only; a dash means no 2026 rows under that name (call-ups, or a name variant — never fuzzy-matched). Team column shows the CURRENT team when actuals exist (the workbook's preseason team otherwise). Hitters capped at top 200, pitchers 150, by Shawn's overall rank. Pitcher to-date shows K/BF/GS — ERA/WHIP-to-date need innings, which the compact app dataset doesn't carry (not approximated).