MLB Projections

Shawn's 2026 projection lines beside the season to date. Two data vintages, both dated below.

Projections: Shawn's workbook, updated 2026-08-03 (preseason — rosters have moved since). Actuals: through 2026-08-02.

MLB data view — projections and prop modeling are NFL-only for now.

Rk	Player	Team	Pos	Proj BA	R	HR	RBI	SB	BA now	R	HR	RBI	SB
10	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	DH	.291	140	49	103	25	.292	70	24	67	6
—	Geraldo Perdomo	AZ	SS	.285	109	19	74	24	.239	54	9	41	17
—	Bobby Witt Jr.	KC	SS	.299	106	32	105	40	.279	51	13	39	30
—	Matt Olson	ATL	1B	.264	100	33	107	0	.266	78	31	69	2
—	Maikel Garcia	KC	3B	.285	99	14	68	37	.261	32	3	30	5
—	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	DH	.221	102	43	113	5	.247	65	33	63	2
—	Alex Bregman	CHC	3B	.266	94	25	88	4	.247	58	11	47	2
—	Jose Ramirez	CLE	3B	.277	99	28	97	34	.233	48	10	35	27
—	Elly De La Cruz	CIN	SS	.277	118	27	92	48	.276	62	18	50	20
—	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	OF	.293	105	33	97	32	.254	52	16	47	14
—	Juan Soto	NYM	OF	.283	118	37	103	20	.283	46	21	52	7
—	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	1B	.302	99	25	93	5	.264	56	6	44	7
—	Pete Alonso	BAL	1B	.250	89	38	117	3	.251	68	23	69	5
—	Steven Kwan	CLE	OF	.284	87	11	55	18	.258	44	1	21	8
—	Zach Neto	LAA	SS	.254	89	28	68	27	.230	73	19	47	14
—	Nico Hoerner	CHC	2B	.283	90	8	50	37	.257	46	6	51	17
—	Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	OF	.303	134	34	88	37	.240	36	9	24	15
—	Brent Rooker	ATH	OF	.263	83	35	97	8	.200	20	10	29	2
—	Brice Turang	MIL	2B	.270	87	14	71	38	.271	71	16	69	15
—	Francisco Lindor	NYM	SS	.266	106	29	80	27	.238	28	9	25	2
—	Gunnar Henderson	BAL	SS	.276	104	28	93	22	.219	63	18	47	8
—	Rafael Devers	SF	1B	.261	94	30	105	6	.250	60	23	62	0
—	Manny Machado	SD	3B	.279	89	31	102	10	.210	57	23	65	2
—	Jackson Merrill	SD	OF	.284	90	24	73	15	.237	53	16	52	22
—	CJ Abrams	WSH	SS	.266	92	22	68	44	.287	69	28	85	19
—	Nick Kurtz	ATH	1B	.283	112	42	113	6	.256	62	21	69	7
—	Corbin Carroll	AZ	OF	.269	114	27	96	41	.247	67	16	52	15
—	Jarren Duran	BOS	OF	.263	85	16	63	28	.200	47	14	57	15
—	Jacob Wilson	ATH	SS	.313	98	15	59	7	.274	33	7	34	4
—	Xavier Edwards	MIA	2B/SS	.300	82	4	49	42	.287	51	6	41	18
—	Vinnie Pasquantino	KC	1B	.277	80	30	103	1	.232	34	6	33	4
—	Riley Greene	DET	OF	.259	82	28	99	7	.274	59	15	53	3
—	James Wood	WSH	OF	.254	83	31	96	22	.266	100	30	73	17
—	Jose Altuve	HOU	2B/OF	.277	88	21	67	13	.233	51	12	31	2
—	Luis Arraez	SF	1B	.323	84	8	60	7	.324	52	4	43	10
—	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	OF	.264	80	21	75	12	.269	75	15	63	7
—	Jung Hoo Lee	SF	OF	.275	78	9	48	11	.301	53	6	40	7
—	Freddie Freeman	LAD	1B	.301	102	24	105	11	.310	57	15	54	5
—	Christian Yelich	MIL	DH	.269	91	19	74	32	.237	45	7	37	9
—	Trea Turner	PHI	SS	.292	99	20	67	30	.250	75	16	43	17
—	Junior Caminero	TB	3B	.260	83	33	106	7	.282	66	30	66	2
—	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF	.305	121	51	115	9	.248	43	17	38	5
—	Mookie Betts	LAD	SS	.281	102	28	105	14	.229	42	13	36	1
—	Kyle Tucker	LAD	OF	.286	110	30	95	28	.237	59	9	51	7
—	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	OF	.279	103	25	83	29	.283	56	8	49	26
—	Ezequiel Tovar	COL	SS	.258	76	24	77	10	.193	34	8	35	5
—	Cal Raleigh	SEA	C	.226	86	38	104	7	.162	26	12	43	2
—	Eugenio Suarez	CIN	3B	.228	79	30	101	3	.201	27	14	39	0
—	Josh Naylor	SEA	1B	.281	84	23	94	14	.263	42	8	40	22
—	Yandy Diaz	TB	1B	.296	80	18	75	2	.301	59	15	63	2
—	Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	OF	.250	83	26	92	34	.282	73	24	64	26
—	Jackson Chourio	MIL	OF	.281	89	24	99	31	.276	53	13	42	10
—	Nolan Schanuel	LAA	1B	.274	79	15	57	10	.273	34	6	37	1
—	Gleyber Torres	DET	2B	.260	81	18	70	9	.269	34	6	27	0
—	Wyatt Langford	TEX	OF	.287	103	28	87	27	.272	35	13	31	7
—	Masyn Winn	STL	SS	.258	76	14	67	12	.241	42	4	45	8
—	Kazuma Okamoto	TOR	3B	.256	72	25	79	1	.229	57	24	69	1
—	William Contreras	MIL	C	.283	89	21	95	8	.270	53	10	57	1
—	Jordan Walker	STL	OF	.252	72	19	81	12	.283	67	22	81	14
—	Jackson Holliday	BAL	2B	.254	86	17	56	16	.252	24	5	20	5
—	George Springer	TOR	OF	.262	91	24	66	14	.239	39	12	36	7
—	Tyler Soderstrom	ATH	1B/OF	.252	73	24	91	5	.242	51	17	50	1
—	Salvador Perez	KC	C/1B	.253	57	26	92	0	.215	40	16	46	0
—	Agustin Ramirez	MIA	C	.254	80	21	88	21	.230	14	2	14	3
—	Dylan Crews	WSH	OF	.234	75	17	70	30	.226	35	9	25	7
—	Spencer Torkelson	DET	1B	.238	76	29	88	1	.220	50	20	58	0
—	Brandon Nimmo	TEX	OF	.256	81	21	88	11	.270	46	11	40	6
—	Oneil Cruz	PIT	OF	.247	85	24	78	30	.264	45	14	44	21
—	JJ Wetherholt	STL	SS	.269	85	16	55	29	.249	69	16	41	12
—	Marcell Ozuna	PIT	DH	.266	77	29	93	2	.203	22	8	29	0
—	Trevor Story	BOS	SS	.245	74	23	86	27	.206	16	3	19	4
—	Jo Adell	LAA	OF	.237	70	29	94	11	.239	46	16	62	3
—	Austin Riley	ATL	3B	.271	87	30	90	2	.216	44	12	52	7
—	Hunter Goodman	COL	C	.259	79	32	85	3	.258	66	33	65	5
—	Roman Anthony	BOS	OF	.267	95	19	79	17	.229	12	1	5	2
—	Matt McLain	CIN	2B	.246	85	22	75	22	.189	34	8	26	12
—	Drake Baldwin	ATL	C	.273	81	23	82	2	.272	61	20	57	2
—	Miguel Vargas	CWS	1B/3B	.263	88	22	82	12	.237	74	24	66	11
—	Bryce Harper	PHI	1B	.272	85	25	84	10	.255	67	23	66	6
—	Chase Meidroth	CWS	2B/SS	.280	78	8	42	23	.273	64	9	40	2
—	Brendan Donovan	SEA	2B	.287	76	15	58	5	.274	9	3	8	1
—	Cedric Mullins	TB	OF	.229	69	20	65	28	.201	39	13	34	15
—	Jeremy Pena	HOU	SS	.283	80	19	59	18	.322	53	13	36	8
—	Alec Bohm	PHI	3B	.283	72	16	90	5	.226	37	13	60	2
—	Bo Bichette	NYM	SS	.288	75	19	88	6	.254	53	10	53	1
—	Randy Arozarena	SEA	OF	.236	75	20	72	22	.282	72	14	49	20
—	Alec Burleson	STL	1B/OF	.273	72	20	85	8	.284	57	15	71	3
—	Christian Walker	HOU	1B	.241	71	26	85	3	.238	55	22	64	0
—	Matt Chapman	SF	3B	.239	80	23	80	10	.235	35	7	42	0
—	Jakob Marsee	MIA	OF	.239	78	15	66	46	.197	53	6	28	19
—	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	OF	.265	76	22	83	9	.273	60	18	61	1
—	Andy Pages	LAD	OF	.266	82	26	100	7	.270	64	18	74	10
—	Daulton Varsho	TOR	OF	.227	78	26	87	14	.243	38	7	26	8
—	Kyle Manzardo	CLE	1B	.241	71	26	78	2	.215	40	13	39	0
—	Ketel Marte	AZ	2B	.278	87	25	92	6	.251	59	19	62	4
—	Willy Adames	SF	SS	.233	77	25	88	10	.224	57	18	47	4
—	Luke Keaschall	MIN	2B	.290	89	16	56	43	.263	53	6	33	13
—	Michael Harris II	ATL	OF	.271	73	19	78	18	.287	54	20	64	6
—	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	DH	.295	98	39	101	3	.330	77	35	84	1
—	Andrew Benintendi	CWS	OF	.256	65	22	79	9	.246	43	12	57	1
—	Spencer Steer	CIN	1B	.253	73	20	81	16	.238	54	16	40	3
—	Brenton Doyle	COL	OF	.248	72	19	72	26	.214	21	1	5	9
—	Corey Seager	TEX	SS	.296	89	28	91	2	.188	29	10	25	1
—	Connor Norby	MIA	3B	.259	71	19	76	14	.205	17	4	16	6
—	TJ Friedl	CIN	OF	.270	79	18	59	20	.165	19	3	11	5
—	Ben Rice	NYY	C/1B	.276	88	29	73	6	.266	70	31	73	2
—	Adley Rutschman	BAL	C	.264	70	16	65	1	.251	30	8	47	0
—	Taylor Ward	BAL	OF	.233	70	21	79	4	.246	64	7	30	4
—	Michael Busch	CHC	1B	.258	77	28	86	4	.241	48	13	60	2
—	Adolis Garcia	PHI	OF	.233	65	23	81	10	.195	21	7	21	3
—	Cody Bellinger	NYY	OF	.277	81	25	88	13	.259	52	11	53	10
—	Nolan Arenado	AZ	3B	.264	66	17	76	3	.243	51	15	51	3
—	Ivan Herrera	STL	DH	.281	75	16	78	12	.242	66	12	46	6
—	Luis Robert Jr.	NYM	OF	.258	77	26	88	26	.197	14	4	12	2
—	Sal Frelick	MIL	OF	.279	78	12	63	24	.236	33	4	34	6
—	Ian Happ	CHC	OF	.240	73	19	83	9	.216	65	18	48	4
—	Trent Grisham	NYY	OF	.201	66	17	52	12	.211	52	11	42	7
—	Konnor Griffin	PIT	SS	.258	85	18	57	33	.276	35	5	25	20
—	Evan Carter	TEX	OF	.248	82	16	54	28	.207	38	8	30	14
—	Edouard Julien	COL	1B/2B	.240	68	15	57	9	.212	37	3	20	5
—	Heliot Ramos	SF	OF	.265	70	22	82	6	.264	36	9	34	3
—	Willson Contreras	BOS	1B	.256	68	25	84	5	.284	55	23	67	3
—	Nick Castellanos	SD	OF	.251	64	17	72	6	.191	9	4	20	2
—	Dansby Swanson	CHC	SS	.241	70	18	76	14	.210	67	16	61	15
—	J.P. Crawford	SEA	SS	.252	70	12	68	2	.212	38	10	30	1
—	Josh Bell	MIN	1B	.245	66	18	74	1	.244	53	13	63	1
—	Jac Caglianone	KC	OF	.270	80	25	76	7	.251	48	18	42	3
—	Ozzie Albies	ATL	2B	.266	72	20	82	16	.263	69	18	62	2
—	Daylen Lile	WSH	OF	.268	70	11	59	17	.248	56	13	54	11
—	Carlos Correa	HOU	3B/SS	.269	69	16	68	0	.279	22	3	16	1
—	Shea Langeliers	ATH	C	.231	63	28	78	4	.263	55	23	51	2
—	Mickey Moniak	COL	OF	.247	66	27	77	10	.273	38	17	47	1
—	Jake Burger	TEX	1B	.252	67	27	84	1	.237	46	19	66	2
—	Kevin McGonigle	DET	SS	.269	81	12	49	19	.287	71	11	41	11
—	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	NYY	2B/3B	.247	73	25	80	33	.220	53	16	45	30
—	Addison Barger	TOR	OF	.229	65	18	73	5	.045	2	0	2	0
—	Andrew Vaughn	MIL	1B	.257	58	20	78	1	.298	24	4	28	0
—	Luis Garcia Jr.	WSH	2B	.274	64	17	76	14	.283	48	23	76	4
—	Xander Bogaerts	SD	SS	.259	63	12	62	14	.220	46	9	40	15
—	Mike Trout	LAA	OF	.253	79	29	82	5	.245	64	18	40	8
—	Isaac Paredes	HOU	3B	.243	64	24	75	1	.254	44	15	60	0
—	Otto Lopez	MIA	2B/SS	.267	65	9	55	20	.321	68	9	51	23
—	Yainer Diaz	HOU	C	.283	63	18	76	1	.256	24	8	26	0
—	Lawrence Butler	ATH	OF	.233	67	20	70	17	.211	38	6	29	6
—	Trevor Larnach	MIN	OF	.250	67	16	71	3	.286	49	10	41	2
—	Bryson Stott	PHI	2B	.280	69	13	67	29	.252	46	8	50	19
—	Marcus Semien	NYM	2B	.245	68	16	68	8	.212	36	12	35	7
—	Jonathan Aranda	TB	1B	.270	70	15	75	1	.280	51	14	65	0
—	Josh Lowe	LAA	OF	.263	70	17	60	33	.198	18	8	22	4
—	Wilyer Abreu	BOS	OF	.247	69	19	76	9	.248	57	17	54	6
—	Jorge Polanco	NYM	2B	.241	59	22	74	5	.131	6	1	4	0
—	Ramon Laureano	SD	OF	.257	65	18	60	13	.203	23	7	21	7
—	Ryan O'Hearn	PIT	1B/OF	.269	64	18	68	4	.270	54	17	69	1
—	Jordan Beck	COL	OF	.237	60	19	67	13	.183	7	1	10	2
—	Ernie Clement	TOR	2B/3B/SS	.276	69	15	54	10	.289	47	8	35	4
—	Alejandro Kirk	TOR	C	.262	46	13	70	1	.236	9	3	14	0
—	Brandon Lowe	PIT	2B	.238	66	23	77	5	.255	68	23	71	2
—	Lenyn Sosa	CWS/TOR	1B/2B	.242	48	18	63	3	.195	11	1	9	0
—	Josh Jung	TEX	3B	.256	59	21	72	4	.294	46	9	35	1
—	Teoscar Hernandez	LAD	OF	.244	60	22	81	5	.255	46	10	40	2
—	Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	2B/OF	.254	67	14	58	20	.289	56	15	57	15
—	Colson Montgomery	CWS	SS	.232	66	26	79	3	.215	51	25	63	1
—	Gavin Lux	TB	2B	.259	59	7	58	5	—	—	—	—	—
—	Kerry Carpenter	DET	OF	.275	66	29	83	3	.208	27	13	36	0
—	Noelvi Marte	CIN	3B	.258	66	17	71	19	.192	18	6	14	4
—	Will Smith	LAD	C	.266	75	19	70	2	.249	23	6	23	0
—	Logan O'Hoppe	LAA	C	.237	55	23	65	2	.209	20	4	23	0
—	Ke'Bryan Hayes	CIN	3B	.252	56	9	58	11	.145	14	4	7	1
—	Kyle Teel	CWS	C	.267	69	14	68	11	.190	9	2	14	0
—	Lane Thomas	KC	OF	.232	59	15	63	16	.232	30	10	37	6
—	Royce Lewis	MIN	3B	.261	64	22	74	7	.221	38	12	37	10
—	Chase DeLauter	CLE	OF	.269	72	18	61	5	.278	41	12	55	7
—	Sal Stewart	CIN	1B	.276	74	19	72	13	.254	59	24	85	12
—	Nolan Gorman	STL	2B/3B	.232	60	23	74	6	.194	19	7	26	0
—	Christopher Morel	MIA	OF	.221	55	21	67	8	.162	3	0	1	1
—	Brooks Lee	MIN	2B/3B/SS	.253	56	14	60	5	.244	51	16	58	7
—	Austin Hays	CWS	OF	.253	60	14	62	6	.233	3	1	7	0
—	Colton Cowser	BAL	OF	.238	66	23	63	10	.204	29	8	28	8
—	J.T. Realmuto	PHI	C	.256	56	14	63	8	.225	33	8	37	3
—	Colt Keith	DET	2B/3B	.259	66	16	69	4	.266	41	8	27	4
—	Max Muncy	ATH	3B	.225	78	24	88	2	.223	24	5	20	3
—	Josh Smith	TEX	1B/3B/SS	.252	63	10	43	12	.213	8	1	8	3
—	Munetaka Murakami	CWS	3B	.223	59	25	67	8	.244	59	24	51	1
—	Tyler Stephenson	CIN	C	.247	61	15	67	0	.256	26	9	32	0
—	Gavin Sheets	SD	OF	.236	48	15	65	2	.215	42	14	43	4
—	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	AZ	OF	.261	55	17	70	7	.207	12	2	21	1
—	Kyle Stowers	MIA	OF	.237	57	22	70	3	.234	42	16	48	1
—	Jeff McNeil	ATH	2B/OF	.289	60	12	45	5	.251	29	4	34	3
—	Luis Rengifo	MIL/SD	2B/3B	.263	56	11	51	13	.237	29	2	27	5
—	Mark Vientos	NYM	3B	.265	60	23	72	0	.211	25	11	35	0
—	Matt Wallner	MIN	OF	.244	63	29	81	4	.167	14	4	10	0
—	Jesus Sanchez	TOR	OF	.249	56	17	59	11	.272	22	7	29	1
—	Andres Gimenez	TOR	2B	.257	61	13	52	24	.232	28	7	41	13
—	Luisangel Acuna	CWS	2B	.248	64	6	40	36	.241	17	1	12	15
—	Joey Ortiz	MIL	3B	.256	57	9	52	11	.233	28	5	28	8
—	Alan Roden	MIN	OF	.293	68	9	49	16	.220	4	0	7	0
—	Jonathan India	KC	2B/3B/OF	.243	61	12	55	7	.167	8	2	8	0
—	Patrick Bailey	SF/CLE	C	.233	49	10	47	2	.193	21	6	22	2
—	Francisco Alvarez	NYM	C	.248	61	19	60	2	.255	24	12	27	0
—	Harrison Bader	SF	OF	.249	57	15	56	15	.170	10	5	14	0

Actuals join by name within the MLB namespace only; a dash means no 2026 rows under that name (call-ups, or a name variant — never fuzzy-matched). Team column shows the CURRENT team when actuals exist (the workbook's preseason team otherwise). Hitters capped at top 200, pitchers 150, by Shawn's overall rank. Pitcher to-date shows K/BF/GS — ERA/WHIP-to-date need innings, which the compact app dataset doesn't carry (not approximated).