2026 · Player props

Where the model disagrees with the book

Every prop, ranked by how far Shawn Childs' projection sits from the line — in points, not profit. Click any row to see the arithmetic: the team total, his share, his efficiency, the distribution we price it with, and how well-calibrated that is. Nothing invented, nothing hidden.

Demo slate — lines and prices are illustrative, not live book odds. The odds layer is built to swap in a live feed without changing this screen.

Disagreement, not EV. A gap between the model and the book is not a guaranteed edge — it's a disagreement we can show you the source of. Rows priced too far into our variance model's tail are marked outside confidence bandand carry no disagreement number, because a number there would fake a precision the gate says we don't have.

Childs %combines Shawn's projected means with SportsHack's variance. Families are Gamma (yardage) / Negative-Binomial (TDs), parity-locked to the Python reference; receptions use the compound targets×catch-rate model where a 2024 catch rate is known (NegBin fallback otherwise). CVs are still heuristic and target dispersion is a placeholder — directional, not calibrated. Gamma is calibration-validated out-of-sample (ECE 0.02, 63% better than Normal); the paid tier still waits on the full fit.

min |disagreement|0 ptsWithin confidence band only

Player	Pos / Team	Prop	Childs Proj	Line	Childs %	Market %	Disagreement	Confidence
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB · DET	Anytime TD	1.06 TD	—	59%	40%	+19.3	●
Jonathan Taylor	RB · IND	Anytime TD	0.94 TD	—	56%	40%	+15.6	●
Devaughn Vele	WR · NO	Receptions o2	2.0 rec	2	40%push 22%	52%	-12.2	●
CeeDee Lamb	WR · DAL	Rec yds o74.5	72 yds	74.5	41%	52%	-11.3	●
Daniel Bellinger	TE · TEN	Rec yds o12.5	12 yds	12.5	41%	52%	-11.2	●
Jalen Royals	WR · KC	Receptions o2	2.0 rec	2	41%push 24%	52%	-11.1	●
Derrick Henry	RB · BAL	Anytime TD	0.94 TD	—	56%	45%	+10.9	●
Parker Washington	WR · JAC	Rec yds o51.5	50 yds	51.5	41%	52%	-10.9	●
Terrance Ferguson	TE · LAR	Rec yds o22.5	22 yds	22.5	40%	51%	-10.9	●
Deebo Samuel	WR · SF	Receptions o3	3.0 rec	3	41%push 17%	52%	-10.8	●
Jayden Reed	WR · GB	Rec yds o47.5	46 yds	47.5	41%	52%	-10.7	●
Tutu Atwell	WR · LAR	Rec yds o17	16 yds	17	40%	51%	-10.7	●
Mark Andrews	TE · BAL	Rec yds o41	40 yds	41	40%	51%	-10.6	●
Noah Fant	TE · NO	Rec yds o19.5	19 yds	19.5	41%	51%	-10.5	●
Jordan Addison	WR · MIN	Receptions o4	4.0 rec	4	42%push 14%	52%	-10.4	●
George Kittle	TE · SF	Receptions o3.5	3.4 rec	3.5	42%	52%	-10.3	●
Carnell Tate	WR · TEN	Rec yds o50	49 yds	50	41%	51%	-10.2	●
Justin Jefferson	WR · MIN	Rec yds o79	77 yds	79	41%	51%	-10.1	●
Juwan Johnson	TE · NO	Receptions o4	4.0 rec	4	42%push 14%	52%	-10.1	●
Elijah Higgins	TE · ARI	Receptions o1.5	1.5 rec	1.5	42%	52%	-10.0	●
Bryce Young	QB · CAR	Pass yds o196.5	213 yds	196.5	59%	49%	+10.0	●
Jameson Williams	WR · DET	Rec yds o66.5	66 yds	66.5	42%	52%	-10.0	●
Jake Ferguson	TE · DAL	Receptions o4	4.0 rec	4	42%push 14%	52%	-9.9	●
Jalen Coker	WR · CAR	Rec yds o45	43 yds	45	40%	50%	-9.8	●
Adonai Mitchell	WR · NYJ	Receptions o2	2.0 rec	2	41%push 22%	51%	-9.8	●
Pat Freiermuth	TE · PIT	Receptions o3	3.0 rec	3	41%push 17%	51%	-9.8	●
Jaylen Waddle	WR · DEN	Rec yds o65	63 yds	65	40%	50%	-9.7	●
Rashee Rice	WR · KC	Rec yds o66.5	66 yds	66.5	42%	52%	-9.7	●
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR · JAC	Receptions o4	3.9 rec	4	40%push 14%	50%	-9.7	●
David Montgomery	RB · HOU	Rush yds o58	56 yds	58	42%	51%	-9.5	●
Nico Collins	WR · HOU	Receptions o5	4.9 rec	5	41%push 12%	50%	-9.4	●
Rashod Bateman	WR · BAL	Rec yds o26	26 yds	26	43%	52%	-9.4	●
Jalen Nailor	WR · LV	Rec yds o25	25 yds	25	42%	51%	-9.4	●
Saquon Barkley	RB · PHI	Anytime TD	0.59 TD	—	41%	32%	+9.4	●
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR · SEA	Anytime TD	0.59 TD	—	41%	32%	+9.4	●
Michael Mayer	TE · LV	Rec yds o16	16 yds	16	42%	51%	-9.3	●
Christian McCaffrey	RB · SF	Anytime TD	0.65 TD	—	44%	35%	+9.3	●
Travis Kelce	TE · KC	Rec yds o45.5	46 yds	45.5	43%	52%	-9.1	●
Jaylin Noel	WR · HOU	Receptions o1.5	1.4 rec	1.5	41%	50%	-9.1	●
Jaylin Lane	WR · WAS	Rec yds o13	13 yds	13	43%	52%	-9.0	●
Germie Bernard	WR · PIT	Rec yds o21.5	22 yds	21.5	43%	52%	-9.0	●
Michael Penix	QB · ATL	Pass yds o96.5	104 yds	96.5	58%	49%	+8.9	●
Matthew Golden	WR · GB	Rec yds o40	40 yds	40	42%	51%	-8.7	●
Kenneth Walker	RB · KC	Rush yds o66	64 yds	66	41%	50%	-8.7	●
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR · TEN	Receptions o5	4.9 rec	5	41%push 12%	50%	-8.7	●
Tyler Allgeier	RB · ARI	Rush yds o24.5	24 yds	24.5	43%	52%	-8.7	●
Andrei Iosivas	WR · CIN	Receptions o2.5	2.4 rec	2.5	41%	50%	-8.7	●
Malik Washington	WR · MIA	Receptions o3.5	3.5 rec	3.5	42%	51%	-8.6	●
KC Concepcion	WR · CLE	Rec yds o39	39 yds	39	43%	51%	-8.5	●
Tee Higgins	WR · CIN	Rec yds o61	61 yds	61	44%	52%	-8.5	●
Aaron Jones Sr.	RB · MIN	Rush yds o39.5	39 yds	39.5	44%	52%	-8.5	●
Ja'Kobi Lane	WR · BAL	Rec yds o34.5	34 yds	34.5	43%	51%	-8.5	●
Travis Etienne	RB · NO	Rush yds o60	59 yds	60	43%	51%	-8.4	●
Jalen Coker	WR · CAR	Receptions o3.5	3.5 rec	3.5	43%	51%	-8.3	●
Kalif Raymond	WR · CHI	Rec yds o13	13 yds	13	41%	50%	-8.2	●
De'Zhaun Stribling	WR · SF	Receptions o2	2.0 rec	2	43%push 24%	51%	-8.2	●
De'Zhaun Stribling	WR · SF	Rec yds o27.5	27 yds	27.5	41%	49%	-8.2	●
Tre Tucker	WR · LV	Rec yds o47	47 yds	47	43%	51%	-8.1	●
Puka Nacua	WR · LAR	Rec yds o94.5	94 yds	94.5	43%	51%	-8.0	●
Josh Allen	QB · BUF	Pass yds o203	221 yds	203	59%	51%	+8.0	●
Parker Washington	WR · JAC	Receptions o4	4.0 rec	4	42%push 14%	50%	-7.9	●
Cooper Kupp	WR · SEA	Receptions o2.5	2.5 rec	2.5	42%	50%	-7.9	●
George Kittle	TE · SF	Rec yds o42.5	41 yds	42.5	40%	48%	-7.8	●
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR · ARI	Rec yds o58.5	59 yds	58.5	43%	51%	-7.8	●
Kenyon Sadiq	TE · NYJ	Receptions o2	2.0 rec	2	42%push 24%	50%	-7.8	●
Colston Loveland	TE · CHI	Rec yds o56	57 yds	56	43%	51%	-7.7	●
Makai Lemon	WR · PHI	Receptions o3.5	3.5 rec	3.5	44%	52%	-7.7	●
Jameson Williams	WR · DET	Receptions o4	4.0 rec	4	42%push 14%	50%	-7.6	●
Jalen Tolbert	WR · MIA	Rec yds o40	39 yds	40	41%	49%	-7.6	●
David Njoku	TE · LAC	Rec yds o21	21 yds	21	42%	50%	-7.6	●
Jonnu Smith	TE · GB	Rec yds o15	15 yds	15	44%	51%	-7.6	●
Kyle Monangai	RB · CHI	Rush yds o39	38 yds	39	42%	50%	-7.6	●
Zach Charbonnet	RB · SEA	Rush yds o20.5	20 yds	20.5	42%	50%	-7.5	●
Zachariah Branch	WR · ATL	Rec yds o22	22 yds	22	44%	51%	-7.5	●
Baker Mayfield	QB · TB	Pass yds o223.5	217 yds	223.5	42%	50%	-7.4	●
Elijah Arroyo	TE · SEA	Rec yds o12	12 yds	12	44%	51%	-7.3	●
Jakobi Meyers	WR · JAC	Rec yds o38	38 yds	38	44%	51%	-7.3	●
DeMario Douglas	WR · NE	Rec yds o22.5	22 yds	22.5	42%	49%	-7.2	●
Omar Cooper	WR · NYJ	Rec yds o45	45 yds	45	42%	50%	-7.2	●
AJ Barner	TE · SEA	Rec yds o32.5	34 yds	32.5	45%	52%	-7.2	●
DeVonta Smith	WR · PHI	Rec yds o65.5	63 yds	65.5	41%	48%	-7.2	●
Dalton Schultz	TE · HOU	Rec yds o32.5	33 yds	32.5	44%	51%	-7.2	●
Terry McLaurin	WR · WAS	Receptions o5	5.0 rec	5	42%push 12%	49%	-7.2	●
Zavion Thomas	WR · CHI	Rec yds o18	18 yds	18	44%	51%	-7.1	●
Joe Burrow	QB · CIN	Pass yds o256.5	273 yds	256.5	56%	49%	+7.0	●
Dylan Sampson	RB · CLE	Rush yds o15.5	15 yds	15.5	44%	51%	-7.0	●
Darnell Mooney	WR · NYG	Receptions o2	2.1 rec	2	43%push 22%	50%	-6.9	●
Demarcus Robinson	WR · SF	Rec yds o13	13 yds	13	41%	48%	-6.8	●
Matthew Stafford	QB · LAR	Pass yds o236.5	251 yds	236.5	56%	49%	+6.8	●
Nicholas Singleton	RB · TEN	Rush yds o32.5	32 yds	32.5	42%	49%	-6.7	●
Dallas Goedert	TE · PHI	Rec yds o37.5	38 yds	37.5	44%	51%	-6.7	●
Darnell Mooney	WR · NYG	Rec yds o28	28 yds	28	43%	50%	-6.6	●
D'Andre Swift	RB · CHI	Rush yds o59	58 yds	59	42%	49%	-6.6	●
Andrei Iosivas	WR · CIN	Rec yds o31	31 yds	31	43%	50%	-6.6	●
Jayden Reed	WR · GB	Receptions o4	4.1 rec	4	43%push 14%	50%	-6.5	●
Zay Flowers	WR · BAL	Rec yds o70	69 yds	70	42%	49%	-6.5	●
Jerry Jeudy	WR · CLE	Receptions o4	4.0 rec	4	41%push 14%	48%	-6.5	●
David Montgomery	RB · HOU	Anytime TD	0.59 TD	—	41%	35%	+6.5	●
Garrett Wilson	WR · NYJ	Rec yds o62	62 yds	62	43%	50%	-6.5	●
Trevor Lawrence	QB · JAC	Pass yds o223	235 yds	223	54%	48%	+6.5	●
Tre' Harris	WR · LAC	Rec yds o33	33 yds	33	43%	50%	-6.4	●
Rashid Shaheed	WR · SEA	Receptions o2	2.1 rec	2	44%push 22%	50%	-6.4	●
Quinshon Judkins	RB · CLE	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	32%	+6.4	●
Javonte Williams	RB · DAL	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	32%	+6.4	●
Rashee Rice	WR · KC	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	32%	+6.4	●
Mike Evans	WR · SF	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	32%	+6.4	●
Jayden Daniels	QB · WAS	Pass yds o221.5	217 yds	221.5	44%	50%	-6.3	●
Odell Beckham	WR · NYG	Rec yds o12.5	13 yds	12.5	46%	52%	-6.3	●
Isaiah Likely	TE · NYG	Rec yds o39.5	41 yds	39.5	45%	51%	-6.3	●
Tetairoa McMillan	WR · CAR	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	45%	-6.3	●
George Pickens	WR · DAL	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	45%	-6.3	●
Kayshon Boutte	WR · HOU	Rec yds o46.5	46 yds	46.5	43%	49%	-6.2	●
Antonio Williams	WR · WAS	Receptions o2	2.1 rec	2	45%push 24%	51%	-6.2	●
Matthew Hibner	TE · BAL	Rec yds o16	16 yds	16	43%	49%	-6.2	●
David Njoku	TE · LAC	Receptions o2	2.1 rec	2	43%push 22%	49%	-6.2	●
Darren Waller	TE · CAR	Rec yds o13	14 yds	13	46%	52%	-6.2	●
Juwan Johnson	TE · NO	Rec yds o44	43 yds	44	42%	48%	-6.1	●
Oronde Gadsden II	TE · LAC	Rec yds o31	33 yds	31	46%	52%	-6.1	●
Jonnu Smith	TE · GB	Receptions o1	1.4 rec	1	55%push 31%	49%	+6.0	●
Kyren Williams	RB · LAR	Rush yds o57.5	59 yds	57.5	46%	52%	-6.0	●
Isaiah Davis	RB · NYJ	Rush yds o15.5	15 yds	15.5	42%	48%	-5.9	●
Dawson Knox	TE · BUF	Rec yds o13.5	13 yds	13.5	42%	48%	-5.9	●
Jordan Love	QB · GB	Pass yds o240.5	236 yds	240.5	44%	50%	-5.9	●
James Cook III	RB · BUF	Anytime TD	0.65 TD	—	44%	38%	+5.8	●
Xavier Hutchinson	WR · HOU	Rec yds o26	26 yds	26	42%	48%	-5.8	●
Chig Okonkwo	TE · WAS	Rec yds o31	32 yds	31	45%	51%	-5.8	●
Gunnar Heim	TE · TEN	Receptions o3	3.2 rec	3	46%push 18%	52%	-5.8	●
Sam LaPorta	TE · DET	Receptions o4	4.3 rec	4	46%push 14%	52%	-5.7	●
Courtland Sutton	WR · DEN	Receptions o4	4.1 rec	4	44%push 14%	50%	-5.7	●
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR · SEA	Receptions o6.5	6.4 rec	6.5	42%	48%	-5.7	●
Ja'Kobi Lane	WR · BAL	Receptions o2	2.0 rec	2	43%push 24%	49%	-5.7	●
CeeDee Lamb	WR · DAL	Receptions o6	6.0 rec	6	42%push 10%	48%	-5.6	●
Ja'Marr Chase	WR · CIN	Rec yds o86.5	88 yds	86.5	44%	50%	-5.5	●
Nico Collins	WR · HOU	Rec yds o68.5	72 yds	68.5	47%	52%	-5.5	●
Isaac TeSlaa	WR · DET	Receptions o2	2.1 rec	2	45%push 24%	50%	-5.5	●
Rashid Shaheed	WR · SEA	Rec yds o28.5	29 yds	28.5	46%	51%	-5.5	●
Fernando Mendoza	QB · LV	Pass yds o160	168 yds	160	54%	49%	+5.5	●
Tua Tagovailoa	QB · ATL	Pass yds o114.5	121 yds	114.5	54%	49%	+5.5	●
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR · JAC	Rec yds o56	56 yds	56	44%	49%	-5.4	●
Justin Herbert	QB · LAC	Pass yds o242	237 yds	242	44%	49%	-5.4	●
Josh Downs	WR · IND	Rec yds o48	49 yds	48	44%	50%	-5.4	●
Troy Franklin	WR · DEN	Receptions o2	2.1 rec	2	45%push 22%	50%	-5.3	●
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR · DET	Rec yds o72.5	74 yds	72.5	45%	50%	-5.3	●
Derrick Henry	RB · BAL	Rush yds o83	82 yds	83	44%	49%	-5.2	●
Malik Nabers	WR · NYG	Rec yds o61.5	63 yds	61.5	44%	50%	-5.2	●
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR · SEA	Rec yds o90.5	94 yds	90.5	46%	51%	-5.1	●
Bijan Robinson	RB · ATL	Anytime TD	0.71 TD	—	47%	42%	+5.1	●
Jalen Royals	WR · KC	Rec yds o25	25 yds	25	44%	49%	-5.1	●
Rashod Bateman	WR · BAL	Receptions o2	2.1 rec	2	45%push 22%	50%	-5.0	●
Jonathon Brooks	RB · CAR	Rush yds o49.5	50 yds	49.5	46%	51%	-5.0	●
Ladd McConkey	WR · LAC	Rec yds o64.5	64 yds	64.5	43%	48%	-5.0	●
C.J. Stroud	QB · HOU	Pass yds o220	232 yds	220	54%	50%	+4.9	●
Chris Olave	WR · NO	Receptions o5.5	5.7 rec	5.5	45%	50%	-4.9	●
Drake London	WR · ATL	Rec yds o70.5	72 yds	70.5	45%	50%	-4.9	●
Xavier Hutchinson	WR · HOU	Receptions o2	2.2 rec	2	47%push 22%	52%	-4.9	●
Geno Smith	QB · NYJ	Pass yds o138	145 yds	138	54%	50%	+4.8	●
Jerry Jeudy	WR · CLE	Rec yds o46.5	49 yds	46.5	47%	52%	-4.8	●
Elijah Sarratt	WR · BAL	Rec yds o23	23 yds	23	43%	48%	-4.8	●
Gunnar Heim	TE · TEN	Rec yds o37	38 yds	37	45%	50%	-4.8	●
Cade Otton	TE · TB	Rec yds o30.5	32 yds	30.5	46%	51%	-4.7	●
Trey McBride	TE · ARI	Receptions o6.5	6.7 rec	6.5	45%	50%	-4.7	●
Jared Goff	QB · DET	Pass yds o268.5	266 yds	268.5	45%	50%	-4.7	●
Devaughn Vele	WR · NO	Rec yds o22	23 yds	22	45%	50%	-4.6	●
Daniel Jones	QB · IND	Pass yds o229.5	229 yds	229.5	46%	51%	-4.6	●
DJ Moore	WR · BUF	Receptions o4.5	4.8 rec	4.5	47%	51%	-4.5	●
Cade Otton	TE · TB	Receptions o3	3.2 rec	3	46%push 17%	50%	-4.5	●
Courtland Sutton	WR · DEN	Rec yds o52	55 yds	52	48%	52%	-4.5	●
Brock Purdy	QB · SF	Pass yds o220.5	232 yds	220.5	54%	50%	+4.4	●
Michael Mayer	TE · LV	Receptions o1.5	1.6 rec	1.5	43%	48%	-4.4	●
Malik Willis	QB · MIA	Pass yds o168.5	167 yds	168.5	45%	50%	-4.4	●
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB · NE	Rush yds o39.5	40 yds	39.5	47%	51%	-4.3	●
Darnell Washington	TE · PIT	Receptions o2	2.2 rec	2	45%push 22%	50%	-4.3	●
Terrance Ferguson	TE · LAR	Receptions o1.5	1.6 rec	1.5	46%	50%	-4.3	●
A.J. Brown	WR · NE	Receptions o5	5.3 rec	5	46%push 12%	50%	-4.2	●
Malik Nabers	WR · NYG	Receptions o5	5.2 rec	5	45%push 12%	49%	-4.2	●
A.J. Brown	WR · NE	Rec yds o69.5	73 yds	69.5	47%	51%	-4.2	●
John Metchie	WR · CAR	Rec yds o14	15 yds	14	46%	50%	-4.1	●
Elijah Sarratt	WR · BAL	Receptions o1.5	1.7 rec	1.5	48%	52%	-4.1	●
Bryce Lance	WR · NO	Rec yds o15.5	16 yds	15.5	45%	49%	-4.1	●
Matthew Golden	WR · GB	Receptions o3	3.1 rec	3	46%push 18%	50%	-4.1	●
Trey McBride	TE · ARI	Rec yds o66	68 yds	66	45%	49%	-4.0	●
Tetairoa McMillan	WR · CAR	Rec yds o66	69 yds	66	46%	50%	-4.0	●
Josh Downs	WR · IND	Receptions o4.5	4.6 rec	4.5	44%	48%	-4.0	●
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR · TB	Receptions o4	4.8 rec	4	54%push 13%	50%	+4.0	●
DeMario Douglas	WR · NE	Receptions o1.5	1.8 rec	1.5	48%	52%	-3.9	●
Tre Tucker	WR · LV	Receptions o3.5	3.7 rec	3.5	45%	49%	-3.9	●
KC Concepcion	WR · CLE	Receptions o3.5	3.5 rec	3.5	44%	48%	-3.8	●
Mike Evans	WR · SF	Receptions o4	4.3 rec	4	46%push 14%	50%	-3.8	●
Saquon Barkley	RB · PHI	Rush yds o75.5	79 yds	75.5	48%	52%	-3.8	●
Cam Ward	QB · TEN	Pass yds o208.5	207 yds	208.5	45%	49%	-3.8	●
Rome Odunze	WR · CHI	Receptions o3.5	3.9 rec	3.5	48%	52%	-3.7	●
Jordyn Tyson	WR · NO	Rec yds o30	32 yds	30	47%	51%	-3.7	●
De'Von Achane	RB · MIA	Rush yds o59.5	62 yds	59.5	48%	52%	-3.7	●
Eli Stowers	TE · PHI	Rec yds o13.5	14 yds	13.5	47%	51%	-3.7	●
Tory Horton	WR · SEA	Rec yds o14	15 yds	14	46%	50%	-3.6	●
Theo Johnson	TE · NYG	Rec yds o19.5	20 yds	19.5	46%	50%	-3.6	●
Dontayvion Wicks	WR · PHI	Rec yds o18.5	19 yds	18.5	45%	49%	-3.6	●
CeeDee Lamb	WR · DAL	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	35%	+3.5	●
Kenneth Walker	RB · KC	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	35%	+3.5	●
Kyren Williams	RB · LAR	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	35%	+3.5	●
A.J. Brown	WR · NE	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	35%	+3.5	●
Keon Coleman	WR · BUF	Rec yds o21.5	22 yds	21.5	44%	48%	-3.5	●
Travis Hunter	WR · JAC	Rec yds o24.5	26 yds	24.5	46%	50%	-3.5	●
Harold Fannin	TE · CLE	Rec yds o50	52 yds	50	46%	49%	-3.4	●
Brock Bowers	TE · LV	Rec yds o62.5	68 yds	62.5	49%	52%	-3.4	●
Zay Flowers	WR · BAL	Receptions o5	5.3 rec	5	46%push 12%	50%	-3.3	●
Zachariah Branch	WR · ATL	Receptions o2	2.1 rec	2	45%push 24%	48%	-3.3	●
Alvin Kamara	RB · NO	Rush yds o18	19 yds	18	48%	51%	-3.3	●
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR · DET	Receptions o6	6.4 rec	6	46%push 10%	50%	-3.3	●
Josh Oliver	TE · MIN	Rec yds o11	12 yds	11	48%	51%	-3.3	●
Tre' Harris	WR · LAC	Receptions o2	2.4 rec	2	53%push 23%	50%	+3.3	●
Ben Sinnott	TE · WAS	Rec yds o11.5	12 yds	11.5	45%	48%	-3.3	●
Jeremiyah Love	RB · ARI	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	42%	-3.2	●
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR · DET	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	42%	-3.2	●
Caleb Douglas	WR · MIA	Rec yds o17.5	18 yds	17.5	45%	48%	-3.2	●
Rachaad White	RB · WAS	Rush yds o30	31 yds	30	46%	50%	-3.2	●
Omarion Hampton	RB · LAC	Rush yds o60.5	66 yds	60.5	52%	49%	+3.2	●
T.J. Hockenson	TE · MIN	Receptions o3.5	3.7 rec	3.5	46%	50%	-3.1	●
Drake London	WR · ATL	Anytime TD	0.59 TD	—	41%	38%	+3.1	●
Tee Higgins	WR · CIN	Anytime TD	0.59 TD	—	41%	38%	+3.1	●
Davante Adams	WR · LAR	Anytime TD	0.59 TD	—	41%	38%	+3.1	●
Kaytron Allen	RB · WAS	Rush yds o19	19 yds	19	46%	49%	-3.0	●
Jacoby Brissett	QB · ARI	Pass yds o136	143 yds	136	54%	51%	+3.0	●
Dont'e Thornton Jr.	WR · LV	Rec yds o12.5	13 yds	12.5	47%	50%	-3.0	●
Chris Rodriguez	RB · JAC	Rush yds o32	33 yds	32	47%	50%	-3.0	●
Keon Coleman	WR · BUF	Receptions o1.5	1.8 rec	1.5	48%	51%	-2.9	●
DJ Moore	WR · BUF	Rec yds o57.5	61 yds	57.5	47%	50%	-2.8	●
Terry McLaurin	WR · WAS	Rec yds o59.5	64 yds	59.5	48%	51%	-2.8	●
Jahan Dotson	WR · ATL	Receptions o1	1.3 rec	1	52%push 32%	49%	+2.8	●
Jeremiyah Love	RB · ARI	Rush yds o62.5	64 yds	62.5	47%	50%	-2.7	●
Greg Dulcich	TE · MIA	Rec yds o30	32 yds	30	47%	50%	-2.7	●
Darius Slayton	WR · NYG	Rec yds o13.5	14 yds	13.5	46%	49%	-2.7	●
Tetairoa McMillan	WR · CAR	Receptions o4.5	4.9 rec	4.5	49%	52%	-2.7	●
Mike Gesicki	TE · CIN	Rec yds o25.5	28 yds	25.5	48%	51%	-2.6	●
Colby Parkinson	TE · LAR	Receptions o2	2.3 rec	2	49%push 22%	51%	-2.6	●
Bucky Irving	RB · TB	Rush yds o54	59 yds	54	52%	50%	+2.5	●
Matthew Hibner	TE · BAL	Receptions o1	1.2 rec	1	50%push 34%	52%	-2.5	●
Khalil Shakir	WR · BUF	Receptions o3	3.5 rec	3	51%push 16%	49%	+2.4	●
Ray Davis	RB · BUF	Rush yds o16.5	17 yds	16.5	49%	51%	-2.4	●
Germie Bernard	WR · PIT	Receptions o1.5	1.6 rec	1.5	45%	48%	-2.4	●
Brock Bowers	TE · LV	Receptions o6	6.3 rec	6	45%push 10%	48%	-2.4	●
Kyle Williams	WR · NE	Rec yds o33	35 yds	33	47%	50%	-2.4	●
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB · DET	Rush yds o77	83 yds	77	51%	49%	+2.4	●
Jaylen Waddle	WR · DEN	Receptions o4	4.5 rec	4	50%push 13%	52%	-2.3	●
Makai Lemon	WR · PHI	Rec yds o44	47 yds	44	48%	50%	-2.3	●
Denzel Boston	WR · CLE	Receptions o2	2.1 rec	2	47%push 24%	49%	-2.3	●
Quentin Johnston	WR · LAC	Rec yds o48.5	51 yds	48.5	47%	50%	-2.3	●
Oronde Gadsden II	TE · LAC	Receptions o2.5	2.7 rec	2.5	48%	50%	-2.3	●
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB · WAS	Rush yds o41	42 yds	41	46%	48%	-2.3	●
Malik Davis	RB · DAL	Rush yds o16.5	18 yds	16.5	52%	50%	+2.2	●
Jalen McMillan	WR · TB	Receptions o2	2.3 rec	2	50%push 22%	48%	+2.2	●
Dalton Kincaid	TE · BUF	Rec yds o38.5	41 yds	38.5	47%	50%	-2.1	●
Tucker Kraft	TE · GB	Rec yds o47	51 yds	47	48%	50%	-2.1	●
Kyle Williams	WR · NE	Receptions o2	2.3 rec	2	51%push 23%	49%	+2.1	●
Dak Prescott	QB · DAL	Pass yds o247	260 yds	247	54%	52%	+2.0	●
Ja'Marr Chase	WR · CIN	Anytime TD	0.71 TD	—	47%	45%	+2.0	●
Malik Washington	WR · MIA	Rec yds o29	31 yds	29	47%	49%	-2.0	●
Luther Burden III	WR · CHI	Receptions o4	4.4 rec	4	51%push 15%	49%	+2.0	●
Calvin Ridley	WR · TEN	Rec yds o22	23 yds	22	47%	49%	-2.0	●
Tory Horton	WR · SEA	Receptions o1	1.2 rec	1	52%push 34%	50%	+2.0	●
Khalil Shakir	WR · BUF	Rec yds o34.5	37 yds	34.5	49%	51%	-1.9	●
Braelon Allen	RB · NYJ	Rush yds o17	18 yds	17	49%	51%	-1.9	●
Drake Maye	QB · NE	Pass yds o248	253 yds	248	50%	48%	+1.8	●
Emmett Johnson	RB · KC	Rush yds o19	20 yds	19	48%	50%	-1.8	●
Emeka Egbuka	WR · TB	Receptions o4.5	4.9 rec	4.5	50%	52%	-1.7	●
Blake Corum	RB · LAR	Rush yds o36.5	39 yds	36.5	50%	52%	-1.7	●
Pat Freiermuth	TE · PIT	Rec yds o30	32 yds	30	46%	48%	-1.7	●
Romeo Doubs	WR · NE	Rec yds o39.5	42 yds	39.5	48%	50%	-1.7	●
Christian Watson	WR · GB	Receptions o3.5	3.7 rec	3.5	46%	48%	-1.7	●
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR · TB	Rec yds o48.5	53 yds	48.5	49%	51%	-1.7	●
Jake Tonges	TE · SF	Receptions o1	1.2 rec	1	50%push 34%	49%	+1.6	●
Antonio Williams	WR · WAS	Rec yds o21.5	23 yds	21.5	48%	50%	-1.6	●
Xavier Worthy	WR · KC	Rec yds o41.5	45 yds	41.5	49%	48%	+1.5	●
Sam LaPorta	TE · DET	Rec yds o47.5	51 yds	47.5	47%	49%	-1.5	●
Justice Hill	RB · BAL	Rush yds o14.5	15 yds	14.5	50%	49%	+1.5	●
MarShawn Lloyd	RB · GB	Rush yds o46	50 yds	46	53%	51%	+1.5	●
Jahan Dotson	WR · ATL	Rec yds o14.5	16 yds	14.5	48%	50%	-1.5	●
Cole Kmet	TE · CHI	Rec yds o19	20 yds	19	47%	49%	-1.4	●
Mike Washington	RB · LV	Rush yds o18.5	19 yds	18.5	49%	48%	+1.4	●
Tee Higgins	WR · CIN	Receptions o4	4.4 rec	4	49%push 14%	50%	-1.3	●
Aaron Rodgers	QB · PIT	Pass yds o220.5	220 yds	220.5	47%	48%	-1.3	●
Tucker Kraft	TE · GB	Receptions o3.5	3.9 rec	3.5	48%	50%	-1.3	●
Michael Wilson	WR · ARI	Rec yds o43	46 yds	43	48%	50%	-1.2	●
Chuba Hubbard	RB · CAR	Rush yds o34	36 yds	34	51%	52%	-1.2	●
Camden Brown	WR · DAL	Rec yds o13.5	15 yds	13.5	50%	49%	+1.1	●
Jaylen Warren	RB · PIT	Rush yds o51	54 yds	51	50%	49%	+1.1	●
Isiah Pacheco	RB · DET	Rush yds o18	19 yds	18	51%	50%	+1.1	●
J.K. Dobbins	RB · DEN	Rush yds o35.5	37 yds	35.5	48%	49%	-1.0	●
Jalen Nailor	WR · LV	Receptions o2	2.3 rec	2	48%push 22%	49%	-1.0	●
Romeo Doubs	WR · NE	Receptions o3	3.4 rec	3	49%push 17%	50%	-1.0	●
Tank Bigsby	RB · PHI	Rush yds o18	19 yds	18	50%	49%	+0.9	●
RJ Harvey	RB · DEN	Rush yds o40.5	43 yds	40.5	50%	50%	+0.8	●
Keenan Allen	WR · IND	Rec yds o32.5	36 yds	32.5	50%	49%	+0.8	●
Michael Pittman	WR · PIT	Rec yds o54	57 yds	54	47%	48%	-0.8	●
Alec Pierce	WR · IND	Rec yds o50	54 yds	50	49%	50%	-0.8	●
Najee Harris	RB · NYG	Rush yds o30.5	33 yds	30.5	51%	50%	+0.8	●
Adam Trautman	TE · DEN	Receptions o1	1.3 rec	1	51%push 32%	50%	+0.7	●
Dawson Knox	TE · BUF	Receptions o1	1.3 rec	1	50%push 32%	51%	-0.6	●
Evan Engram	TE · DEN	Rec yds o27	29 yds	27	47%	48%	-0.6	●
TreVeyon Henderson	RB · NE	Rush yds o50	52 yds	50	48%	48%	+0.6	●
Rome Odunze	WR · CHI	Rec yds o49.5	53 yds	49.5	48%	48%	+0.6	●
Dalton Schultz	TE · HOU	Receptions o3	3.4 rec	3	49%push 17%	49%	-0.4	●
Breece Hall	RB · NYJ	Rush yds o52	56 yds	52	51%	51%	+0.4	●
Chase Brown	RB · CIN	Anytime TD	0.59 TD	—	41%	42%	-0.3	●
Omarion Hampton	RB · LAC	Anytime TD	0.59 TD	—	41%	42%	-0.3	●
Dalton Kincaid	TE · BUF	Receptions o3	3.4 rec	3	49%push 17%	49%	+0.2	●
Ryan Flournoy	WR · DAL	Receptions o2.5	2.9 rec	2.5	52%	52%	-0.2	●
Jordan Addison	WR · MIN	Rec yds o47.5	51 yds	47.5	49%	49%	-0.2	●
Bo Nix	QB · DEN	Pass yds o234.5	242 yds	234.5	51%	51%	+0.2	●
Puka Nacua	WR · LAR	Anytime TD	0.53 TD	—	38%	38%	+0.1	●
Jake Ferguson	TE · DAL	Rec yds o34.5	37 yds	34.5	48%	48%	+0.1	●
Patrick Mahomes	QB · KC	Pass yds o223.5	228 yds	223.5	49%	50%	-0.1	●
Rico Dowdle	RB · PIT	Rush yds o39.5	42 yds	39.5	50%	50%	-0.1	●
Quinshon Judkins	RB · CLE	Rush yds o66.5	70 yds	66.5	49%	50%	-0.1	●
Xavier Legette	WR · CAR	Receptions o2	2.3 rec	2	48%push 22%	48%	-0.1	●
Bhayshul Tuten	RB · JAC	Rush yds o46.5	49 yds	46.5	50%	50%	+0.1	●
Colby Parkinson	TE · LAR	Rec yds o20.5	22 yds	20.5	48%	48%	-0.0	●
Kyle Pitts Sr.	TE · ATL	Rec yds o46	49 yds	46	48%	48%	+0.0	●

318 of 617 props · sorted by disagreement, largest first