Free · no signup · permanently
The parlay ladder
The same legs, priced at two through six. Nothing changes between the rows except how many legs are stacked — so the two columns that move are the only two that matter: your probability of winning, and the share the book keeps. This is the argument against long parlays, made with tonight's actual prices rather than a lecture.
| Legs | Leg added | Chance it hits | Quoted payout | Fair payout | Book keeps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Francisco Alvarez · hits under 1.5 | 77.2%loses about 0 of 1 | 2.44x | 1.30x | 12.3% |
| 3 | Colton Cowser · hits under 1.5 | 64.9%loses about 1 of 2 | 2.98x | 1.54x | 17.0% |
| 4 | Justin Crawford · hits under 1.5 | 52.9%loses about 1 of 2 | 4.24x | 1.89x | 22.5% |
| 5 | Ozzie Albies · hits under 1.5 | 42.7%loses about 1 of 2 | 8.49x | 2.34x | 27.9% |
| 6 | JJ Bleday · hits under 1.5 | 34.2%loses about 2 of 3 | 12.96x | 2.92x | 32.7% |
Read the last two columns together. The quoted payout grows with every leg, which is the part that feels good — but the fair payout grows faster, and the gap between them is the book's cut. Going from 2 legs to 6 takes your chance of winning from 77.2% to 34.2% while the hold climbs from 12.3% to 32.7%.
Cross-game legs only — same-game combinations are refused here because their correlation is not modelled, and multiplying a dependence away would make these numbers wrong. Model-backed legs only; slate: 2026-08-05. Build your own shapes in the Parlay Lab.
Get the nightly card
One email before the slate, with the projections and what they are priced at. The ladder and the record stay free whether you subscribe or not.