Tyler Shough — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

Shough hits one of my recurring concerns with quarterback prospects: his age. He turned 26 on September 28 last season, which makes him a risky long-term investment for an NFL team hoping to develop a franchise quarterback. His college timeline reflects that. He was redshirted in 2018 without appearing in a game, played two seasons at Oregon, totaling 12 games, then battled a string of injuries at Texas Tech over the following three years, including a broken collarbone, a shoulder injury, and a broken leg.

Everything came together in 2024 at Louisville, where Shough made 12 starts and set career highs across the board. He led the team to an 8-4 record while throwing for 3,195 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. His completion rate (62.7%) leaves something to be desired, but Shough averaged a strong 8.2 yards per attempt. Pressure was minimal in his college career (sacked 49 times across 42 career games, including 14 times in 2024). As a runner, he's contributed 733 yards and 11 touchdowns on 246 career carries.

Part of what fueled his breakout season was being older and more experienced than the competition. He has an NFL-caliber arm and shows a good feel for diagnosing defenses, but his effectiveness drops noticeably against pressure. He also tends to rush his throws and force the ball into tight windows when the pocket starts to collapse.

Despite these concerns, New Orleans used an early second-round pick on Shough in the 2025 draft.

In his first NFL season, the Saints gave Shough nine starts (5-4), in which he exceeded my expectations. His completion rate (67.6%) graded as a plus while minimizing the damage in interceptions (6). He played well in Week 10 (282/2) while showing a higher passing stride across his final four games (272/1, 308/1, 333/2, and 259/1), resulting in 23.18 fantasy points per game and 313 combined yards per start. Shough was under duress on 19.6% of his passes, with 31 leading to sacks (8.7%). He also offered a reasonable floor in the run game (45/186/3).