J.J. McCarthy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

Michigan handed McCarthy 28 starts across two seasons, and he made the most of them, going 27-1 with a National Championship in 2023. The win-loss record speaks for itself, but his raw numbers were less eye-popping: 6,226 passing yards, 49 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. In his title-winning 2023 campaign, he averaged just 22.1 pass attempts per game while generating 3,193 combined yards and 25 touchdowns, but his 72.3% completion rate and 9.0 yards per attempt placed him in elite company.

The tension in evaluating McCarthy is balancing his winning pedigree against the game-manager label that follows him. He's at his best throwing on the move, particularly breaking right, and repeatedly delivers completions into tight windows. He's also a capable chain-mover with his legs and has a knack for keeping plays alive when the pocket collapses. One quiet strength: he was sacked on only 5.6% of his attempts across 2022 and 2023 (37 total over 654 drop-backs), a rate that would have ranked better than seven NFL teams in 2023. His pro ceiling will hinge heavily on the talent around him and whether his offensive line can give him a clean pocket. The Brady-Michigan connection and Brock Purdy's underdog arc have also nudged him up draft boards in ways that go beyond his numbers.

His college supporting cast was strong. Blake Corum shouldered the backfield workload (258/1,245/27 with 16 catches) while McCarthy connected with running backs on 50 passes in 2023, nearly one in five of the team's completions. Wide receiver Roman Wilson led the pass-catchers with 48 receptions for 789 yards and 12 scores. Minnesota selected McCarthy 10th overall in the 2024 draft.

The Vikings have historically wanted to push the ball downfield, throwing it 672 and 632 times in 2022 and 2023, but McCarthy's rookie season was lost before it started when he tore his right ACL in early August. That opened the door for Sam Darnold, who had a career year running an offense that threw 548 times, a lower volume that helped Minnesota control the clock and limit the strain on its defense.

McCarthy inherited one of the more enviable skill position groups in the league. Unfortunately, he struggled to make plays (57.6% completion rate) while taking 27 sacks across 243 pass attempts (10.0% sack rate). Defenses literally beat him up (70 blitzes), leading to ankle and hand injuries, along with a concussion. McCarthy missed seven games. His best fantasy value came in Week 1 (24.65), Week 9 (21.35), Week 14 (22.05), and Week 15 (27.00). In each of those matchups, he attempted only 92 passes (23 per game).