SportsHack.ai
Menu

NFL

2026 GuideRankingsProjectionsPropsGame Logs2025 Backtest

MLB

MLB DataTonight's LeadersPropsParlay LabLineups

Tools

Parlay Lab (NFL)Reality Engine
Season pass

MLB Parlay Lab

Ask for a ticket shape; the executor does all math. Ranked-by labels, never "best bets."

Strikeouts (issued line grid) — v1.0 · 4,570 held-out 2025 starts · worst-bucket ECE 0.0277 · mean PIT 0.4977Hits (0.5 / 1.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0073 · mean PIT 0.4975Total bases (0.5–3.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0090 · mean PIT 0.4947Home runs (0.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0047 · mean PIT 0.5018

No confirmed lineups: batter models project who plays from trailing history — a scratched batter voids at the book but is a projection miss here. No platoon layer (fit chose zero). No injury/weather news. Same-game combos refused (correlation not modeled). Cross-game legs treated independent. Anything without an issued model number renders [MARKET-ONLY].

Slate: 2026-08-05 · graded record accruing — 1 night graded · data: live repo.

Clear
3 legs, safest2 legs, biggest disagreements3 legs, veterans onlysafest 3, hitters toocheapest book hold, 2 legs
more examples
3 unders, biggest disagreements2 legs with one Dodgers legstrikeout legs only, safest 3show me the ladder for the safest legsbest 6-legpitchers only, safest 3strikeout legs only, biggest disagreementsk-only unders, 3 legspitchers only, cheapest holdpitchers only, veteranshitters only, safest 3hitters only, biggest disagreementsbatters only, cheapest hold, 2 legshitters only, undershitters only, veteranstop 5 most likely to homer tonight

Understood: 6 legs · ranked by disagreement · long parlay — priced for transparency, not recommended

Ranked by model-vs-market disagreement (market-implied on unflagged legs) · combos drawn from the 20 strongest legs of 860 priced

long parlay — priced for transparency, not recommended · book keeps 32.3% here vs 12.2% split into 2-leg tickets

Joint 18.2% — loses about 4 of 5 times · quoted 411.47x · fair-at-joint 5.48x · book hold 32.3%

6 of 6 legs model-backed · net disagreement +2.361

  • [MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
  • [MODEL] Dylan Crews (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +340 [DraftKings] — model 64.1% vs implied 21.4% · 638 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB
  • [MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

long parlay — priced for transparency, not recommended · book keeps 32.3% here vs 12.2% split into 2-leg tickets

Joint 18.0% — loses about 5 of 6 times · quoted 411.47x · fair-at-joint 5.55x · book hold 32.3%

6 of 6 legs model-backed · net disagreement +2.353

  • [MODEL] Dylan Beavers (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 65.3% vs implied 20.1% · 283 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Dylan Crews (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +340 [DraftKings] — model 64.1% vs implied 21.4% · 638 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB
  • [MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

long parlay — priced for transparency, not recommended · book keeps 32.6% here vs 12.3% split into 2-leg tickets

Joint 19.4% — loses about 4 of 5 times · quoted 331.98x · fair-at-joint 5.16x · book hold 32.6%

6 of 6 legs model-backed · net disagreement +2.350

  • [MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
  • [MODEL] Alec Bohm (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +255 [DraftKings] — model 68.0% vs implied 26.5% · 1979 AB
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB
  • [MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

long parlay — priced for transparency, not recommended · book keeps 32.6% here vs 12.3% split into 2-leg tickets

Joint 18.8% — loses about 4 of 5 times · quoted 374.06x · fair-at-joint 5.32x · book hold 32.6%

6 of 6 legs model-backed · net disagreement +2.344

  • [MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
  • [MODEL] Dylan Crews (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +340 [DraftKings] — model 64.1% vs implied 21.4% · 638 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Ozzie Albies (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +100 [BetMGM] — model 80.7% vs implied 46.5% · 2035 AB

long parlay — priced for transparency, not recommended · book keeps 32.6% here vs 12.3% split into 2-leg tickets

Joint 19.2% — loses about 4 of 5 times · quoted 331.98x · fair-at-joint 5.22x · book hold 32.6%

6 of 6 legs model-backed · net disagreement +2.342

  • [MODEL] Dylan Beavers (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 65.3% vs implied 20.1% · 283 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Alec Bohm (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +255 [DraftKings] — model 68.0% vs implied 26.5% · 1979 AB
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB
  • [MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

long parlay — priced for transparency, not recommended · book keeps 32.6% here vs 12.3% split into 2-leg tickets

Joint 18.6% — loses about 4 of 5 times · quoted 374.06x · fair-at-joint 5.38x · book hold 32.6%

6 of 6 legs model-backed · net disagreement +2.337

  • [MODEL] Dylan Beavers (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 65.3% vs implied 20.1% · 283 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Dylan Crews (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +340 [DraftKings] — model 64.1% vs implied 21.4% · 638 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Ozzie Albies (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +100 [BetMGM] — model 80.7% vs implied 46.5% · 2035 AB

long parlay — priced for transparency, not recommended · book keeps 32.6% here vs 12.3% split into 2-leg tickets

Joint 18.6% — loses about 4 of 5 times · quoted 374.89x · fair-at-joint 5.39x · book hold 32.6%

6 of 6 legs model-backed · net disagreement +2.335

  • [MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
  • [MODEL] Dylan Crews (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +340 [DraftKings] — model 64.1% vs implied 21.4% · 638 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB
  • [MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Michael Massey (KC vs MIN) total_bases under 2.5 @ +105 [BetMGM] — model 79.2% vs implied 45.5% · 1300 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

long parlay — priced for transparency, not recommended · book keeps 31.7% here vs 11.9% split into 2-leg tickets

Joint 13.8% — loses about 6 of 7 times · quoted 669.83x · fair-at-joint 7.24x · book hold 31.7%

6 of 6 legs model-backed · net disagreement +2.335

  • [MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
  • [MODEL] Dylan Crews (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +340 [DraftKings] — model 64.1% vs implied 21.4% · 638 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB
  • [MODEL] Luis Robert Jr. (CLE vs NYM) hits over 0.5 @ +250 [DraftKings] — model 59.4% vs implied 26.9% · 1443 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY