2026 · MLB Leaders

Tonight's top 10, by model probability

Each board is ranked by a gate-validated model's number — never by prices, never "top picks." The top of every list still fails plenty; each board says how often.

Strikeouts — v1.0 · 4,570 held-out 2025 startsHits — v1.2-ctba-decomp · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-gamesTotal bases — tb-v1.2-ctba-decomp · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-gamesHome runs — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games

RBIs, runs, steals and other categories appear only when a model for them passes the same validation gate — nothing ranks here without a receipt. Hitter finality follows each official lineup card; unconfirmed hitters remain preliminary. Slate: none issued · data: live repo.

Official lineup coverage unavailable. Hitter projections remain PRELIMINARY unless their own row is confirmed.

No slate issued against tonight's capture yet — boards fill with the evening capture. This page never serves yesterday as tonight.

Numbers like these, graded in public every night.

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