2026 · MLB Leaders
Tonight's top 10, by model probability
Each board is ranked by a gate-validated model's number — never by prices, never "best bets." The top of every list still fails plenty; each board says how often.
Strikeouts — v1.0 · 4,570 held-out 2025 startsHits — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-gamesTotal bases — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-gamesHome runs — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games
RBIs, runs, steals and other categories appear only when a model for them passes the same validation gate — nothing ranks here without a receipt. No confirmed lineups; a scratched player voids at the book but is a projection miss here. Slate: 2026-08-05 · data: live repo.
Home runs
Ranked by model P(HR) — even #1 misses ~2 of 3 nights
- 1Kyle SchwarberPHI · PHI vs WSH31.0%yes +500 [BetRivers] · uncut2157 AB
- 2Shohei OhtaniLAD · CHC vs LAD30.0%yes +205 [BetRivers] · uncut2139 AB
- 3Yordan AlvarezHOU · HOU vs TOR26.2%yes +210 [BetRivers] · uncut1533 AB
- 4Junior CamineroTB · COL vs TB25.6%yes +210 [BetRivers] · uncut1225 AB ⚠
- 5Corey SeagerTEX · SF vs TEX23.9%yes +265 [Caesars] · uncut1532 AB
- 6Sal StewartCIN · ATH vs CIN22.8%yes +625 [Caesars] · uncut477 AB ⚠
- 7Matt OlsonATL · ATL vs MIA22.7%yes +390 [BetRivers] · uncut2268 AB
- 8Joc PedersonTEX · SF vs TEX22.2%yes +335 [BetRivers] · uncut1287 AB ⚠
- 9Eugenio SuárezCIN · ATH vs CIN22.0%yes +625 [Caesars] · uncut2046 AB
- 10Esmerlyn ValdezPIT · MIL vs PIT21.7%yes +450 [BetRivers] · uncut146 AB ⚠
Hits
Ranked by model P(1+ hit) — even #1 misses ~0 of 1 nights
- 1Yandy DíazTB · COL vs TB81.7%2090 AB
- 2Luis ArraezSF · PHI vs WSH78.9%2251 AB
- 3Jonathan ArandaTB · COL vs TB78.8%990 AB ⚠
- 4Chandler SimpsonTB · COL vs TB77.0%800 AB ⚠
- 5Junior CamineroTB · COL vs TB75.7%1225 AB ⚠
- 6Bobby Witt Jr.KC · KC vs MIN74.5%2269 AB
- 7TJ RumfieldCOL · COL vs TB74.1%yes -204 [DraftKings] · uncut389 AB ⚠
- 8Yordan AlvarezHOU · HOU vs TOR73.9%yes -235 [BetMGM] · uncut1533 AB
- 9Jake McCarthyCOL · COL vs TB73.9%1270 AB ⚠
- 10Cole CarriggCOL · COL vs TB73.0%yes -220 [Fanatics] · uncut146 AB ⚠
Total bases
Ranked by model P(2+ TB) — even #1 misses ~1 of 2 nights
- 1Yandy DíazTB · COL vs TB56.4%yes -140 [BetMGM] · uncut2090 AB
- 2Jonathan ArandaTB · COL vs TB52.8%yes -125 [BetRivers] · uncut990 AB ⚠
- 3Junior CamineroTB · COL vs TB52.0%yes -155 [BetMGM] · uncut1225 AB ⚠
- 4Yordan AlvarezHOU · HOU vs TOR50.4%yes +100 [BetMGM] · uncut1533 AB
- 5Bobby Witt Jr.KC · KC vs MIN50.0%2269 AB
- 6Luis ArraezSF · PHI vs WSH49.4%2251 AB
- 7Mickey MoniakCOL · COL vs TB49.1%yes +107 [BetOnline.ag] · uncut1397 AB ⚠
- 8Shohei OhtaniLAD · CHC vs LAD49.0%yes -130 [BetMGM] · uncut2139 AB
- 9Cole CarriggCOL · COL vs TB47.9%yes +125 [Bovada] · uncut146 AB ⚠
- 10Corbin CarrollAZ · AZ vs SD47.8%yes -105 [BetOnline.ag] · uncut2128 AB
Strikeouts (pitchers)
Ranked by model posterior mean K
- 1Paul SkenesPIT · PIT vs MIL6.48 K
- 2Sonny GrayBOS · BOS vs CWS6.47 K
- 3Reid DetmersLAA · LAA vs BAL6.28 K
- 4Eury PérezMIA · MIA vs ATL5.96 K
- 5Bryan WooSEA · SEA vs DET5.90 K
- 6Sean BurkeCWS · CWS vs BOS5.57 K
- 7Tanner BibeeCLE · CLE vs NYM5.48 K
- 8Trevor RogersBAL · BAL vs LAA5.46 K
- 9Hunter BrownHOU · HOU vs TOR5.24 K
- 10Kyle HarrisonMIL · MIL vs PIT5.15 K