Lions vs. Bills DraftKings Showdown Week 2: Shawn Childs’ Lineup Breakdown

Each week, DraftKings has three big showdown events, giving daily gamers a chance to take a massive prize if there is a solo winner. On Thursday night, the Detroit Lions travel to Buffalo to take on the mighty Bills and the soaring Josh Allen. Before I talk about the players, I want to talk about the game from a horse-racing perspective.

Most of my racing experience came at Raynham Dog Track in the 80s, where I traded dollars and time over developing a career path in real life. Life was simple; I only had to take care of myself, which meant I could blow a week's payroll on a 12-race card on any given weekend.

In essence, a showdown lineup is the same as keying a horse or dog in first place, with a layer of salary built into the model. Pick the best player on the night, find a couple of other options to hit the ticket, and fill in the remaining lineup holes with the best available options based on remaining salary.

A low-budget player has to thread the needle, while a max entry guy can push the all button and cover all possible combos at the back end of the roster.

Let’s go into this week’s matchup with Josh Allen as the best player. He averaged 25.97, 24.27, 22.37, and 22.27 in DraftKings scoring from 2022 to 2026, and supported another difference-maker game in Week 1 (35.66 fantasy points). Over the past four years, only 10 running backs and eight wide receivers averaged over 20.00 PPR fantasy points per game at DraftKings.

For a player to be worth his salary in a showdown contest, they need to deliver at least a 2X outcome in fantasy points per $1,000 of salary invested. In the case of Allen, his salary at the flex position is $11,400, meaning he needs to score at least 22.80 fantasy points to be worth his investment. At the captain position, his salary is multiplied by 1.5, along with his fantasy point outcome, but the 2X baseline remains intact ($17,100 requires 34.20 fantasy points, or 22.80 X 1.5).

Based on his recent career path, Allen has scored more than 20.00 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring 50 times across his last 66 matchups (75.7% - played minimal snaps in Week 18 in 2024 and 2025, leading to no fantasy points).[50 times across his last 66 matchups]

Last year, the Lions ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, 18.58 DK fantasy points per game, with four players scoring over 25.00 fantasy points.

Who can beat Allen on this slate?

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Gibbs averaged 21.47 and 21.70 fantasy points at DraftKings over his last 34 starts. He had never scored over 30.00 fantasy points in back-to-back weeks in his career, a level he reached in Week 1 (34 touches – 35.60 fantasy points).

When adding in that Gibbs is playing this game on a short week, Gibbs has a fade-captain feel. He still has a good chance of hitting this ticket based on his opportunity, but his salary ($12,000) requires 24.00 fantasy points to hit par. Gibbs scored under 15.00 fantasy points in five games in 2025, giving him a 29.4% bust rate (23.5% in 2024).

Buffalo ranked 22nd in running back defense last season (23.60 fantasy per game to all opposing backs in a week). Three offenses scored over 40.00 fantasy points (ATL – 46.80, MIA – 42.30, and TB – 42.90).

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Over the past three seasons (20.81, 18.46, and 19.06), St. Brown has averaged about 19.40 fantasy points per game at DraftKings. He scored under 15.00 fantasy points seven times in 2024 and six times in 2025, giving him a 38.2% bust rate. St. Brown scored 28.70 fantasy points in Week 1. In his rookie season, he scored 25.00 fantasy points in back-to-back games, with no consecutive outcomes since.

Buffalo had the sixth-best wide receiver defense last year (26.78 fantasy points per game for all opposing wide receivers in each matchup). Two teams (BAL – 11/188/2 and HOU – 13/151/2) beat their defense for more than 40.00 fantasy points from their wideouts.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

The Texans held Cook to 9.90 fantasy points in Week 1, putting him in the running back bust category. Last year, he scored over 20.00 fantasy points in 10 of his 17 starts, giving him a 58.8% impact ratio, paired with a 41.1% bust rate. New Orleans’ running backs scored 25.00 fantasy points in Week 1.

Detroit was one of the better teams in the NFL last year defending running backs (19.54 FPPG), but they did show weakness in two matchups late in the year (35.70 and 52.90 fantasy points allowed).

The Mighty Touchdown

The Fulltime Fantasy crew has been using my touchdown projections to make parlay props for a number of years, and the hit rate was insane in Week 1 (11-for-15) for running backs projected to score at least once. I went 2-for-5 for wide receivers.

Publication note: The Week 1 touchdown results above are Shawn’s self-reported review of his projections. Sportshack did not independently grade that sample for this article.

The bottom line with touchdowns is that each one has the potential to put that player on the winning ticket. Showdown players should focus on this part of setting their DFS lineup. Gravitate toward the players with the best chance of scoring, and make an adjustment to field goal kickers on offenses with low projected rushing and/or receiving touchdowns.

Gibbs is projected to score 1.5 touchdowns, compared to one for St. Brown. I have Jared Goff passing for two TDs.

Josh Allen has the clear scoring edge in this game (two via the pass and one on the ground). Cook should have a bounce-back game with at least one touchdown. D.J. Moore (75%) comes in off a great game, setting up a possible two-game winning streak.

Pick a Style

In the horse racing realm, I think of three different skill sets:

Class: Best Resume in the field with a proven record against top competition.

Early Speed: Fast horses out of the gate that tend to fade.

Closers: Coming off the pace, but they sometimes don’t have a clear path to the finish line.

In each one of these styles, odds are priced into each horse's form and pedigree. If I’m a speed player, I will catch my fair share of wins while always looking for a potential under-the-radar horse that could be rounding into form. A class player is looking to be in the hunt in more races, but his payoffs have a lower chance of being elite. Off-the-pace chasers seem to have a better chance when fewer eyeballs are in their corner.

When I tried to hit a Superfecta, I was looking for one breaker, one closer, and one class horse, while pushing the all button in the last spot, which created a higher chance of a win and potentially a bigger payoff.

Back to the Showdown

Here’s a look at the four showdown winners from last week:

I expect Josh Allen and James Cook to hit this ticket. One Detroit player should come in (Goff, Gibbs, St. Brown, Williams, or LaPorta), with the latter two projected to be close to the 2X target area. Buffalo should score, giving their kicker multiple chances, while also inviting a chaser outcome, helping the Lions’ backend receiving options.

Last year, the Bills’ tight ends scored 290.00 fantasy points, and Dalton Kincaid was banged up. The Bills had him on the field for 72% of their plays in Week 1.

In the end, a showdown player tonight most likely can only roster three star players. With a James Cook or Jared Goff at captain, getting out across the final three roster slots with between $14,500 and $14,900 seems like a reasonable cover.

With the same combo of players and Josh Allen at captain, a showdown player has $13,900 left with Cook and Goff in the starting lineup, requiring a cheaper flier on one of these three players:

The tight end scoring angle works based on how Buffalo used their tight ends last year.

A defense would also be in play with this combo.

For any team build using Jahmyr Gibbs or Amon-Ra St. Brown with Allen and Cook, they would have to hit on three options under $12,500, which would require about 40.00 fantasy points to pay off.

In the end, a cheat build with two QBs could look like this:

Captain: James Cook

Flex: Allen, Goff, Kincaid, LaPorta, Davis

Allen, Goff, and Williams paint a $2,100 final hole that probably requires a score by a backup tight end. Even worse if D.J. Moore is the fourth player used.

Flex: Allen, Goff, Shakir, LaPorta leaves a Dawson Knox/Ray Davis out.

In the end, TeSlaa seems like the key scrub player on the slate with Goff. He comes off bad reports this summer and an empty Week 1 game, but the Lions had him on the field for 68% of their plays last week.

So here’s my final outline for this matchup:

Captain: Cook

Flex: Allen, Goff, TeSlaa

Position 5: One of these players: Moore, Williams, Kincaid, Shakir, or LaPorta

Position 6 has a range of these dollars with these outs:

St. Brown ($700) or minimal outs. Third Buffalo tight end?

Moore ($3,200) – maybe three or four outs

Williams ($3,700) – defenses in play with three or four other outs

Kincaid ($4,300) – Coleman added to the mix to the Williams outs

Shakir ($4,700) – Same as Kincaid

LaPorta ($5,700) – Both kickers are now in play, suggesting about nine total outs to cover in the six-hole.