The Rebirth of Patrick Mahomes: Why His QB17 Price Could Be a Gift

Apparently, Patrick Mahomes is no longer worthy of being a top-12 starting quarterback in the NFL in 2026. He is coming off a significant knee injury, but the Chiefs expected him to play in Week 1. Kansas City has had a great coaching staff while being the best NFL franchise over the past eight seasons, with Mahomes starting at quarterback (95-31 with 14 wins over 17 matchups in the playoffs).

The Chiefs come off their worst season (6-11) since 2012 (2-14) due to a fading offense and an injury to Mahomes for three games (all losses). Last year, over his first 12 starts, Kansas City’s stud quarterback scored 308.90 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues, which breaks down to 25.74 per game. He gained 3,586 combined yards with 26 touchdowns.

Here are the top five quarterbacks from 2025 bases on scoring average:

Mahomes ended last year with two poor showings at home against the Texans (219 combined yards with three interceptions) and the Chargers (204 combined yards with a touchdown and an interception).

The Chiefs played their first six games without Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy failed to build on his late-season success in 2024 due to an early shoulder injury. He caught only 42 of his 73 targets for 532 yards and a score, with some value in the run game (11/87). For the year, Kansas City’s wideout ranked 16th in PPR fantasy points (555.80 – 198/2,499/15 on 312 targets).

In addition, their running backs slipped to 29th in PPR scoring (303.20), with only two impact games all season (33.90 and 32.20). The Chiefs addressed their RB1 role by signing Kenneth Walker, and Emmett Johnson looks poised to be an asset in the passing game with change-of-pace value on the ground.

Rice comes with some off-the-field baggage, but he has the tools and opportunity to be a top-10 wideout who looks mispriced in drafts. Worthy has a lot to prove, but he was clutch across his final five games in 2024 (7/75/1, 8/89/1, 5/37, 6/101/1, and 8/157/2), with the latter capping off Kansas City’s Super Bowl win.

Hidden on their depth chart is Jalen Royals, who I liked coming into last season, highlighted by one bold line in his rookie player profile that I wrote.

In 2023, Royals was a top receiving option for the Utah State Aggies, thanks to an impressive 15 touchdowns with 71 catches and 1,080 yards. He had an elite three-game run (7/185/3, 6/140/2, and 7/125/2) while scoring a touchdown (13 total) in seven of his final eight starts.

A left injury last season (2024) led to five missed games. Royals had a slow start over his first three matchups (5/77/1, 6/47, and 4/44) before catching fire in his following four contests (10/112/1, 9/211/2, 10/155/1, and 11/188/1). He gained 15.2 yards per catch in his college career.

Royals has a natural flow to his route running and spacing of defenders. He brings a shimmy and shoulder fake after his catches at the second level of the defense, creating yards after the catch. His open-field running is an edge, along with his hands. Royals’ route running has a high floor despite needing some refinement off the line of scrimmage. He ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. His strength is the missing link to his early profile.

I see some CeeDee Lamb qualities in his game, making Royals a value at wide receiver this year in the NFL Draft. The next step in his development is proving that he can perform at a high level against more talented cornerbacks. He projects to be a volume wide receiver who can work the inside part of the field.

Last night in a high-stakes draft, Mahomes was the 17th quarterback off the board in the fourteenth round. Despite his dismal outlook, which actually aligns with my preseason projections, his career body of work and changes to the Chiefs’ offense suggest he beats expectations by a wide margin. His receiving corps should be much better, even with Travis Kelce having the appearance of his swan song in the NFL. Walker brings a real threat in the run game, and their stud quarterback makes the players around him better and knows how to win games.

In the end, Mahomes has the feel of a gift at QB2, and maybe a sharper fantasy analyst (me) should upgrade his projection (331.76) to show more faith in his 2026 outlook. Remember, the difference between the 17th-ranked quarterback in four-point passing touchdown formats and the fourth-best option is only 47 fantasy points based on my projections.

Here’s Mahomes fantasy point total and ranking by week average from 2022 to 2024:

Based on his direction and Mahomes being expected to lose some mobility due to his recovery from knee surgery, his projections make sense. Unfortunately, his outlook for 2026 is more bases on his regression in 2023 and 2024 than the expected improvements in the Chiefs’ offense. I also sense that Kansas City’s defense won’t be as good, suggesting a higher need to throw the ball and score to win games.