MLB Parlay Lab

Ask for a ticket shape; the executor does all math. Ranked-by labels, never "best bets."

Strikeouts (issued line grid) — v1.0 · 4,570 held-out 2025 starts · worst-bucket ECE 0.0277 · mean PIT 0.4977Hits (0.5 / 1.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0073 · mean PIT 0.4975Total bases (0.5–3.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0090 · mean PIT 0.4947Home runs (0.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0047 · mean PIT 0.5018

No confirmed lineups: batter models project who plays from trailing history — a scratched batter voids at the book but is a projection miss here. No platoon layer (fit chose zero). No injury/weather news. Same-game combos refused (correlation not modeled). Cross-game legs treated independent. Anything without an issued model number renders [MARKET-ONLY].

Slate: 2026-08-05 · graded record accruing — 1 night graded · data: live repo.

Understood: ladder view (2→6 rungs) · 3 legs · ranked by joint probability (positive-disagreement only) · model-backed legs only

Ranked by joint probability — model-backed legs only

Same top legs, stacked rung by rung — watch the probability collapse and the hold compound.

Legs	Adds	Joint P	Quoted	Fair	Book hold
2	Luis Arraez total_bases under 3.5	77.5% — loses about 0 of 1 times	2.65x	1.29x	12.9%
3	Francisco Alvarez hits under 1.5	66.5% — loses about 1 of 2 times	3.45x	1.50x	18.0%
4	Matt McLain hits under 1.5	56.4% — loses about 1 of 2 times	4.50x	1.77x	23.1%
5	Colton Cowser hits under 1.5	47.4% — loses about 1 of 2 times	5.50x	2.11x	27.2%
6	Nathan Church hits under 1.5	39.1% — loses about 2 of 3 times	8.73x	2.56x	32.2%