MLB Parlay Lab

Ask for a ticket shape; the executor does all math. Ranked-by labels, never "best bets."

Strikeouts (issued line grid) — v1.0 · 4,570 held-out 2025 starts · worst-bucket ECE 0.0277 · mean PIT 0.4977Hits (0.5 / 1.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0073 · mean PIT 0.4975Total bases (0.5–3.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0090 · mean PIT 0.4947Home runs (0.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0047 · mean PIT 0.5018

No confirmed lineups: batter models project who plays from trailing history — a scratched batter voids at the book but is a projection miss here. No platoon layer (fit chose zero). No injury/weather news. Same-game combos refused (correlation not modeled). Cross-game legs treated independent. Anything without an issued model number renders [MARKET-ONLY].

Slate: 2026-08-05 · graded record accruing — 1 night graded · data: live repo.

Understood: 3 legs · ranked by disagreement · unders only · hitter legs only

Ranked by model-vs-market disagreement (market-implied on unflagged legs) · combos drawn from the 48 strongest legs of 860 priced

Joint 54.9% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 9.25x · fair-at-joint 1.82x · book hold 18.5%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.123

[MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB

Joint 55.1% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 9.04x · fair-at-joint 1.82x · book hold 18.7%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.117

[MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 55.3% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 8.84x · fair-at-joint 1.81x · book hold 18.9%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.112

[MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB
[MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 56.6% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 8.41x · fair-at-joint 1.77x · book hold 18.8%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.107

[MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Jac Caglianone (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +125 [BetMGM] — model 77.9% vs implied 41.7% · 581 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Ozzie Albies (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +100 [BetMGM] — model 80.7% vs implied 46.5% · 2035 AB

Joint 55.8% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 8.43x · fair-at-joint 1.79x · book hold 18.8%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.097

[MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB
[MODEL] Michael Massey (KC vs MIN) total_bases under 2.5 @ +105 [BetMGM] — model 79.2% vs implied 45.5% · 1300 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 57.0% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 8.04x · fair-at-joint 1.75x · book hold 19.2%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.096

[MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Ozzie Albies (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +100 [BetMGM] — model 80.7% vs implied 46.5% · 2035 AB

Joint 56.0% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 8.24x · fair-at-joint 1.78x · book hold 19.0%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.091

[MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Jackson Chourio (MIL vs PIT) hits under 1.5 @ +115 [DraftKings] — model 78.5% vs implied 43.3% · 1402 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Michael Massey (KC vs MIN) total_bases under 2.5 @ +105 [BetMGM] — model 79.2% vs implied 45.5% · 1300 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 57.6% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 7.67x · fair-at-joint 1.74x · book hold 19.1%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.081

[MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
[MODEL] Ozzie Albies (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +100 [BetMGM] — model 80.7% vs implied 46.5% · 2035 AB
[MODEL] Michael Massey (KC vs MIN) total_bases under 2.5 @ +105 [BetMGM] — model 79.2% vs implied 45.5% · 1300 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY