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Ask for a ticket shape; the executor does all math. Ranked-by labels, never "best bets."

Strikeouts (issued line grid) — v1.0 · 4,570 held-out 2025 starts · worst-bucket ECE 0.0277 · mean PIT 0.4977Hits (0.5 / 1.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0073 · mean PIT 0.4975Total bases (0.5–3.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0090 · mean PIT 0.4947Home runs (0.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0047 · mean PIT 0.5018

No confirmed lineups: batter models project who plays from trailing history — a scratched batter voids at the book but is a projection miss here. No platoon layer (fit chose zero). No injury/weather news. Same-game combos refused (correlation not modeled). Cross-game legs treated independent. Anything without an issued model number renders [MARKET-ONLY].

Slate: 2026-08-05 · graded record accruing — 1 night graded · data: live repo.

Clear
3 legs, safest2 legs, biggest disagreements3 legs, veterans onlysafest 3, hitters toocheapest book hold, 2 legs
more examples
3 unders, biggest disagreements2 legs with one Dodgers legstrikeout legs only, safest 3show me the ladder for the safest legsbest 6-legpitchers only, safest 3strikeout legs only, biggest disagreementsk-only unders, 3 legspitchers only, cheapest holdpitchers only, veteranshitters only, safest 3hitters only, biggest disagreementsbatters only, cheapest hold, 2 legshitters only, undershitters only, veteranstop 5 most likely to homer tonight

Understood: 3 legs · ranked by joint probability (positive-disagreement only) · hitter legs only · model-backed legs only

Ranked by joint probability — model-backed legs only · combos drawn from the 48 strongest legs of 860 priced

Joint 66.5% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 3.45x · fair-at-joint 1.50x · book hold 18.0%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.738

  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Luis Arraez (PHI vs WSH) total_bases under 3.5 @ -240 [DraftKings] — model 86.1% vs implied 66.0% · 2251 AB
  • [MODEL] Francisco Alvarez (CLE vs NYM) hits under 1.5 @ -330 [DraftKings] — model 85.8% vs implied 72.3% · 1179 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 66.0% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 3.80x · fair-at-joint 1.52x · book hold 18.4%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.801

  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Luis Arraez (PHI vs WSH) total_bases under 3.5 @ -240 [DraftKings] — model 86.1% vs implied 66.0% · 2251 AB
  • [MODEL] A.J. Ewing (CLE vs NYM) total_bases under 3.5 @ -230 [DraftKings] — model 85.1% vs implied 65.3% · 259 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 65.8% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 3.45x · fair-at-joint 1.52x · book hold 18.3%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.732

  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Luis Arraez (PHI vs WSH) total_bases under 3.5 @ -240 [DraftKings] — model 86.1% vs implied 66.0% · 2251 AB
  • [MODEL] Matt McLain (ATH vs CIN) hits under 1.5 @ -330 [DraftKings] — model 84.9% vs implied 72.0% · 1156 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 65.6% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 3.17x · fair-at-joint 1.53x · book hold 17.7%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.666

  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Francisco Alvarez (CLE vs NYM) hits under 1.5 @ -330 [DraftKings] — model 85.8% vs implied 72.3% · 1179 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Matt McLain (ATH vs CIN) hits under 1.5 @ -330 [DraftKings] — model 84.9% vs implied 72.0% · 1156 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 65.3% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 3.45x · fair-at-joint 1.53x · book hold 18.3%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.726

  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Luis Arraez (PHI vs WSH) total_bases under 3.5 @ -240 [DraftKings] — model 86.1% vs implied 66.0% · 2251 AB
  • [MODEL] Matt McLain (ATH vs CIN) total_bases under 2.5 @ -330 [DraftKings] — model 84.3% vs implied 72.0% · 1156 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 65.2% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 3.24x · fair-at-joint 1.53x · book hold 17.6%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.669

  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Luis Arraez (PHI vs WSH) total_bases under 3.5 @ -240 [DraftKings] — model 86.1% vs implied 66.0% · 2251 AB
  • [MODEL] Colton Cowser (BAL vs LAA) hits under 1.5 @ -450 [DraftKings] — model 84.1% vs implied 77.5% · 1112 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 65.1% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 3.17x · fair-at-joint 1.54x · book hold 17.7%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.660

  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Francisco Alvarez (CLE vs NYM) hits under 1.5 @ -330 [DraftKings] — model 85.8% vs implied 72.3% · 1179 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Matt McLain (ATH vs CIN) total_bases under 2.5 @ -330 [DraftKings] — model 84.3% vs implied 72.0% · 1156 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 65.0% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 3.50x · fair-at-joint 1.54x · book hold 18.2%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.729

  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] A.J. Ewing (CLE vs NYM) total_bases under 3.5 @ -230 [DraftKings] — model 85.1% vs implied 65.3% · 259 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Matt McLain (ATH vs CIN) hits under 1.5 @ -330 [DraftKings] — model 84.9% vs implied 72.0% · 1156 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY