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Ask for a ticket shape; the executor does all math. Ranked-by labels, never "best bets."

Strikeouts (issued line grid) — v1.0 · 4,570 held-out 2025 starts · worst-bucket ECE 0.0277 · mean PIT 0.4977Hits (0.5 / 1.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0073 · mean PIT 0.4975Total bases (0.5–3.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0090 · mean PIT 0.4947Home runs (0.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0047 · mean PIT 0.5018

No confirmed lineups: batter models project who plays from trailing history — a scratched batter voids at the book but is a projection miss here. No platoon layer (fit chose zero). No injury/weather news. Same-game combos refused (correlation not modeled). Cross-game legs treated independent. Anything without an issued model number renders [MARKET-ONLY].

Slate: 2026-08-05 · graded record accruing — 1 night graded · data: live repo.

Clear
3 legs, safest2 legs, biggest disagreements3 legs, veterans onlysafest 3, hitters toocheapest book hold, 2 legs
more examples
3 unders, biggest disagreements2 legs with one Dodgers legstrikeout legs only, safest 3show me the ladder for the safest legsbest 6-legpitchers only, safest 3strikeout legs only, biggest disagreementsk-only unders, 3 legspitchers only, cheapest holdpitchers only, veteranshitters only, safest 3hitters only, biggest disagreementsbatters only, cheapest hold, 2 legshitters only, undershitters only, veteranstop 5 most likely to homer tonight

Understood: 3 legs · ranked by disagreement · hitter legs only

Ranked by model-vs-market disagreement (market-implied on unflagged legs) · combos drawn from the 48 strongest legs of 860 priced

Joint 38.1% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 38.66x · fair-at-joint 2.62x · book hold 17.1%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.289

  • [MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
  • [MODEL] Dylan Crews (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +340 [DraftKings] — model 64.1% vs implied 21.4% · 638 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 37.7% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 38.66x · fair-at-joint 2.66x · book hold 17.1%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.281

  • [MODEL] Dylan Beavers (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 65.3% vs implied 20.1% · 283 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Dylan Crews (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +340 [DraftKings] — model 64.1% vs implied 21.4% · 638 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 40.5% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 31.19x · fair-at-joint 2.47x · book hold 17.4%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.278

  • [MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
  • [MODEL] Alec Bohm (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +255 [DraftKings] — model 68.0% vs implied 26.5% · 1979 AB
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 40.0% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 31.19x · fair-at-joint 2.50x · book hold 17.4%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.270

  • [MODEL] Dylan Beavers (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 65.3% vs implied 20.1% · 283 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Alec Bohm (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +255 [DraftKings] — model 68.0% vs implied 26.5% · 1979 AB
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 41.2% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 28.12x · fair-at-joint 2.43x · book hold 17.2%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.261

  • [MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Bryce Harper (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +220 [DraftKings] — model 69.2% vs implied 29.4% · 1908 AB

Joint 35.9% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 40.42x · fair-at-joint 2.79x · book hold 16.8%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.260

  • [MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +360 [DraftKings] — model 60.3% vs implied 20.6% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 40.7% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 28.12x · fair-at-joint 2.46x · book hold 17.2%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.253

  • [MODEL] Dylan Beavers (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 65.3% vs implied 20.1% · 283 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Bryce Harper (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +220 [DraftKings] — model 69.2% vs implied 29.4% · 1908 AB

Joint 35.4% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 40.42x · fair-at-joint 2.82x · book hold 16.8%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.252

  • [MODEL] Dylan Beavers (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 65.3% vs implied 20.1% · 283 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Nick Sogard (BOS vs CWS) total_bases under 3.5 @ -115 [Caesars] — model 90.1% vs implied 49.8% · 223 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +360 [DraftKings] — model 60.3% vs implied 20.6% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY