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Ask for a ticket shape; the executor does all math. Ranked-by labels, never "best bets."

Strikeouts (issued line grid) — v1.0 · 4,570 held-out 2025 starts · worst-bucket ECE 0.0277 · mean PIT 0.4977Hits (0.5 / 1.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0073 · mean PIT 0.4975Total bases (0.5–3.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0090 · mean PIT 0.4947Home runs (0.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0047 · mean PIT 0.5018

No confirmed lineups: batter models project who plays from trailing history — a scratched batter voids at the book but is a projection miss here. No platoon layer (fit chose zero). No injury/weather news. Same-game combos refused (correlation not modeled). Cross-game legs treated independent. Anything without an issued model number renders [MARKET-ONLY].

Slate: 2026-08-05 · graded record accruing — 1 night graded · data: live repo.

Clear
3 legs, safest2 legs, biggest disagreements3 legs, veterans onlysafest 3, hitters toocheapest book hold, 2 legs
more examples
3 unders, biggest disagreements2 legs with one Dodgers legstrikeout legs only, safest 3show me the ladder for the safest legsbest 6-legpitchers only, safest 3strikeout legs only, biggest disagreementsk-only unders, 3 legspitchers only, cheapest holdpitchers only, veteranshitters only, safest 3hitters only, biggest disagreementsbatters only, cheapest hold, 2 legshitters only, undershitters only, veteranstop 5 most likely to homer tonight

Understood: 2 legs · ranked by hold

Ranked by book hold — market arithmetic, no model claim · combos drawn from the 48 strongest legs of 860 priced

Joint 18.8% — loses about 4 of 5 times · quoted 19.32x · fair-at-joint 5.31x · book hold 10.5%

2 of 2 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.484

  • [MODEL] Colton Cowser (BAL vs LAA) total_bases over 1.5 @ +320 [DraftKings] — model 31.3% vs implied 22.5% · 1112 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +360 [DraftKings] — model 60.3% vs implied 20.6% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 9.6% — loses about 9 of 10 times · quoted 19.32x · fair-at-joint 10.41x · book hold 10.5%

2 of 2 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.331

  • [MODEL] Colton Cowser (BAL vs LAA) hits over 1.5 @ +320 [DraftKings] — model 15.9% vs implied 22.5% · 1112 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +360 [DraftKings] — model 60.3% vs implied 20.6% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 50.7% — loses about 1 of 2 times · quoted 5.62x · fair-at-joint 1.97x · book hold 10.5%

2 of 2 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.463

  • [MODEL] Colton Cowser (BAL vs LAA) hits under 1.5 @ -450 [DraftKings] — model 84.1% vs implied 77.5% · 1112 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +360 [DraftKings] — model 60.3% vs implied 20.6% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 12.4% — loses about 7 of 8 times · quoted 5.00x · fair-at-joint 8.05x · book hold 10.5%

2 of 2 legs model-backed · net disagreement -0.310

  • [MODEL] Colton Cowser (BAL vs LAA) total_bases over 1.5 @ +320 [DraftKings] — model 31.3% vs implied 22.5% · 1112 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits under 0.5 @ -525 [DraftKings] — model 39.7% vs implied 79.4% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 6.3% — loses about 15 of 16 times · quoted 5.00x · fair-at-joint 15.80x · book hold 10.5%

2 of 2 legs model-backed · net disagreement -0.463

  • [MODEL] Colton Cowser (BAL vs LAA) hits over 1.5 @ +320 [DraftKings] — model 15.9% vs implied 22.5% · 1112 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits under 0.5 @ -525 [DraftKings] — model 39.7% vs implied 79.4% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 33.4% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 1.46x · fair-at-joint 2.99x · book hold 10.5%

2 of 2 legs model-backed · net disagreement -0.331

  • [MODEL] Colton Cowser (BAL vs LAA) hits under 1.5 @ -450 [DraftKings] — model 84.1% vs implied 77.5% · 1112 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits under 0.5 @ -525 [DraftKings] — model 39.7% vs implied 79.4% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 39.4% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 21.62x · fair-at-joint 2.54x · book hold 10.7%

2 of 2 legs model-backed · net disagreement +0.849

  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +360 [DraftKings] — model 60.3% vs implied 20.6% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Dylan Beavers (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 65.3% vs implied 20.1% · 283 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY

Joint 20.9% — loses about 4 of 5 times · quoted 5.44x · fair-at-joint 4.78x · book hold 10.7%

2 of 2 legs model-backed · net disagreement -0.055

  • [MODEL] Jorbit Vivas (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +360 [DraftKings] — model 60.3% vs implied 20.6% · 260 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY
  • [MODEL] Dylan Beavers (BAL vs LAA) hits under 0.5 @ -550 [DraftKings] — model 34.7% vs implied 79.9% · 283 AB ⚠ LOW HISTORY