MLB Parlay Lab

Ask for a ticket shape; the executor does all math. Ranked-by labels, never "best bets."

Strikeouts (issued line grid) — v1.0 · 4,570 held-out 2025 starts · worst-bucket ECE 0.0277 · mean PIT 0.4977Hits (0.5 / 1.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0073 · mean PIT 0.4975Total bases (0.5–3.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0090 · mean PIT 0.4947Home runs (0.5) — v1.1-park · park-adjusted · 41,881 held-out 2025 batter-games · worst-bucket ECE 0.0047 · mean PIT 0.5018

No confirmed lineups: batter models project who plays from trailing history — a scratched batter voids at the book but is a projection miss here. No platoon layer (fit chose zero). No injury/weather news. Same-game combos refused (correlation not modeled). Cross-game legs treated independent. Anything without an issued model number renders [MARKET-ONLY].

Slate: 2026-08-05 · graded record accruing — 1 night graded · data: live repo.

Understood: 3 legs · ranked by disagreement · veterans only (≥1,500 BF)

Ranked by model-vs-market disagreement (market-implied on unflagged legs) · combos drawn from the 48 strongest legs of 860 priced

Joint 35.2% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 36.71x · fair-at-joint 2.84x · book hold 17.1%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.233

[MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
[MODEL] Alec Bohm (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +255 [DraftKings] — model 68.0% vs implied 26.5% · 1979 AB
[MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB

Joint 36.3% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 33.37x · fair-at-joint 2.76x · book hold 17.4%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.217

[MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
[MODEL] Alec Bohm (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +255 [DraftKings] — model 68.0% vs implied 26.5% · 1979 AB
[MODEL] Ozzie Albies (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +100 [BetMGM] — model 80.7% vs implied 46.5% · 2035 AB

Joint 35.8% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 33.09x · fair-at-joint 2.79x · book hold 16.9%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.216

[MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
[MODEL] Bryce Harper (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +220 [DraftKings] — model 69.2% vs implied 29.4% · 1908 AB
[MODEL] Matt Olson (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +120 [BetMGM] — model 78.3% vs implied 42.5% · 2268 AB

Joint 36.9% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 30.08x · fair-at-joint 2.71x · book hold 17.3%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.200

[MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
[MODEL] Bryce Harper (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +220 [DraftKings] — model 69.2% vs implied 29.4% · 1908 AB
[MODEL] Ozzie Albies (ATL vs MIA) hits under 1.5 @ +100 [BetMGM] — model 80.7% vs implied 46.5% · 2035 AB

Joint 29.6% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 45.88x · fair-at-joint 3.38x · book hold 17.0%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.194

[MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
[MODEL] Alec Bohm (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +255 [DraftKings] — model 68.0% vs implied 26.5% · 1979 AB
[MODEL] Francisco Lindor (CLE vs NYM) hits over 0.5 @ +175 [DraftKings] — model 65.8% vs implied 34.0% · 2078 AB

Joint 30.1% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 41.36x · fair-at-joint 3.32x · book hold 16.9%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.177

[MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
[MODEL] Bryce Harper (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +220 [DraftKings] — model 69.2% vs implied 29.4% · 1908 AB
[MODEL] Francisco Lindor (CLE vs NYM) hits over 0.5 @ +175 [DraftKings] — model 65.8% vs implied 34.0% · 2078 AB

Joint 29.6% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 41.71x · fair-at-joint 3.38x · book hold 16.8%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.158

[MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
[MODEL] Alec Bohm (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +255 [DraftKings] — model 68.0% vs implied 26.5% · 1979 AB
[MODEL] Bobby Witt Jr. (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +150 [BetMGM] — model 65.8% vs implied 37.5% · 2269 AB

Joint 30.1% — loses about 2 of 3 times · quoted 37.60x · fair-at-joint 3.32x · book hold 16.7%

3 of 3 legs model-backed · net disagreement +1.141

[MODEL] Gunnar Henderson (BAL vs LAA) hits over 0.5 @ +370 [DraftKings] — model 66.1% vs implied 20.1% · 2224 AB
[MODEL] Bryce Harper (PHI vs WSH) hits over 0.5 @ +220 [DraftKings] — model 69.2% vs implied 29.4% · 1908 AB
[MODEL] Bobby Witt Jr. (KC vs MIN) hits under 1.5 @ +150 [BetMGM] — model 65.8% vs implied 37.5% · 2269 AB