Houston Texans (10-7) vs. Cleveland Browns (11-6)

Kickoff: 4:30 PM Eastern Time

Betting Line: Cleveland favored by 2.5

Over/Under: 44.5

Money Line: Browns -145, Texans +125

Cleveland’s Offensive Strategy

Recalling their previous encounter, the Browns dominated the Texans at NRG Stadium with a 36-22 victory, a scoreline that flattered Houston due to late points. Joe Flacco was impressive in that matchup, throwing for 368 yards and three touchdowns, earning 22.8 fantasy points – his second-highest of the season against a resilient Houston defense.

In their upcoming game, the Texans’ defense looks stronger, particularly in their pass rush. They’re expected to perform better offensively than they did with Davis Mills as quarterback. Flacco’s tendency for turnovers might be a pivotal factor in what’s anticipated to be a tight contest.

Flacco is a viable starting option in fantasy, but he carries more risk compared to other quarterbacks playing on Saturday.

Houston’s improved run defense in 2023 was evident when they limited Jerome Ford to 25 yards on 15 carries in Week 16. Ford managed to score a touchdown but was largely contained. Our RDA* projections suggest Ford will have around 16 touches, amass approximately 65 yards, and has a 50% chance of scoring.

Kareem Hunt, recovering from a groin injury, is back in practice. While he may have fewer touches than Ford, Hunt is preferred in short-yardage situations and is a touchdown-dependent option in DFS.

Amari Cooper, who set a franchise record with 265 receiving yards against the Texans, is unlikely to replicate that performance due to Houston’s stronger defense. However, he’s still projected as a top-5 fantasy receiver.

Elijah Moore, who had a quiet game previously and is currently dealing with a concussion, remains a question mark.

The Texans were vulnerable against tight ends in 2023, and David Njoku exploited this in their last meeting with six catches, including a touchdown. He’s ranked as our No. 2 tight end for this game.

Houston’s Offensive Outlook

The Texans’ previous offensive performance against the Browns is best overlooked. With C.J. Stroud back at quarterback, their offense is expected to be more dynamic.

Stroud, returning from a head injury, will face the challenge of Cleveland’s top-ranked defense. His home performance has been stellar, giving Houston a fighting chance.

Devin Singletary, now the primary running back, will be crucial against Cleveland’s weaker run defense. Our RDA* projections estimate close to 80 scrimmage yards for Singletary, though a touchdown is less certain.

Cleveland’s defense was effective against wide receivers, limiting Nico Collins previously. Collins is projected for a modest performance despite scoring in their last encounter.

Robert Woods is back, adding depth to Houston’s receiving options, but it’s a challenging matchup overall. Noah Brown, returning to practice, has potential for a breakout performance.

Tight end Dalton Schultz, Houston’s leading receiver in Week 16, faces a tougher challenge against Cleveland’s tight end defense, which was one of the league’s best.

Despite Cleveland’s strengths, the game could swing in favor of the underdog Texans at +2.5.

Miami Dolphins (11-6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)

Game Time: 8:00 PM Eastern

Betting Line: Kansas City -4.5

Over/Under: 51.5

Money Line: Dolphins +190, Chiefs -225

Miami’s Offensive Game Plan

This matchup initially promised high offensive output, but both teams’ recent form has tempered expectations. The 51.5 point line seems optimistic, especially with freezing temperatures expected.

Tua Tagovailoa’s road performance has been modest, averaging 233.8 passing yards with seven touchdowns in his last five away games. Kansas City’s defense, ranking in the top 10 and allowing the third-fewest touchdown passes, poses a significant challenge.

Miami’s strong running game, led by Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, will be crucial. Mostert, leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns, is back after missing two games. Achane, despite a mid-season dip, remains a threat. Both are projected as RB1s this week.

Tyreek Hill’s familiarity with Kansas City’s cold conditions is an advantage, but he faces a tough Chiefs secondary. Jaylen Waddle, nursing an ankle injury, is expected to contribute significantly.

Other Miami receivers are less likely to impact fantasy lineups.

Kansas City’s Offensive Strategy

The weather and recent trends suggest betting on the UNDER.

Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been at his best, with a career-high 14 interceptions and a significant drop in touchdown passes. However, he could capitalize against Miami’s injury-hit defense, which has been generous to quarterbacks.

Isiah Pacheco, a promising sophomore, is a solid RB3 pick. He’s been consistent since Week 10 and is expected to maintain his fantasy point average against Miami’s defense.

Rashee Rice is the Chiefs’ most reliable receiver, with consistent scoring since Week 7. Justin Watson offers deep threat potential but is less consistent. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, and Justyn Ross are less reliable options.

Travis Kelce, despite a below-par season, faces a Miami defense vulnerable to tight ends. He’s a strong play, especially with hopes of ending his six-game touchdown drought.

The prediction: UNDER 51.5.