Monday Night Football Best Bets
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers +3
The Saints won their opener in a sloppy game against the Tennessee Titans at home 16-15. Trailing 9-6 at the half, Blake Grupe kicked a 52-yarder to tie things before Derek Carr hit Rashid Shaheed for a 19-yard strike that gave the Saints a 16-9 lead heading into the 4th. Nick Folk hit 2 field goals to get things close for the Titans but the Saints were able to bleed the clock out on their final possession. Chris Olave led the way for the Saints with 8 receptions on 10 targets for 112 yards. Jamaal Williams ended the day averaging just 2.5 yards per carry on his 18 rushes. Carr threw for over 300 yards but was sacked 4 times and threw a pick. Defensively, the Saints kept Derrick Henry in check with just 63 yards and picked off Tannenhill 3 times.
The Panthers began their season by hosting the Atlanta Falcons last week and were tied at 10-10 heading into the final quarter. That is where Atlanta’s Tyler Allgeier took over as he pounded in two 3-yard touchdown runs to give the Falcons a 24-10 win. Rookie Bryce Young completed just 52% of his passes and committed 2 turnovers and almost a third on a fumble that was recovered by Carolina. Miles Sanders looked decent running for 72 yards on 18 carries while Chubba Hubbard chipped in with 60 on 9 carries. They did hold Desmond Ridder and the Falcons passing attack to just 91 passing yards but the turnovers Is what did them in.
This game is likely to be won on the ground and with the team that commits the least turnovers. While Bryce Young has already shown to be susceptible to turning the ball over, we expect his opportunities to be extremely limited in this game. On the other hand, Carr is a gunslinger at heart and is likely to try to force some things when the offense does not move the way he anticipates which is going to be a problem for the Saints. We believe the home dog covers here and likely wins the game outright.
Key Trends:
New Orleans is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Carolina.
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in September.
Carolina is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 38.5
Neither the Browns (27) nor the Steelers (37) combined for over this total in their opening games of the season. Now, as they face off with each other in what is one of the biggest rivalries in the league, we expect things to get chippy and both defenses to dominate the game. However, that has not been the case in recent history. They have combined to go over this total in 6 of their last 7 meetings. With this number continuing to tick down, we do recommend you wait this one out as it could get as low as 37 with the way things are trending. Either way, we still like playing this total over up to 40.
Key Trends:
OVER is 7-2 in the last 9 Cleveland games played in September.
OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 Cleveland games played in September.
OVER is 4-2 in the last 6 games between Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
