Monday Night Football Best Bets
Miami Dolphins -3 @ New England Patriots
Miami is fresh off the most exciting game of Week 1 where they went on the road and defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 36-34. Tua looked incredible in his return and threw for 466 yards while completing 62% of his passes. He connected with Tyreek Hill 11 times for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns. The run game was nearly non-existent as the Phins finished with just 70 yards on the ground. Despite turning the ball over twice to the Chargers 0, Tua was able to rally the offense and score the game winning touchdown with just under 2 minutes to play.
The Patriots lost their comeback bid against the reigning NFC Champion, Philadelphia Eagles last week. After falling behind 16-0 on 2 turnovers, one of which resulted in a return for a touchdown, the Pats rallied into the half and trailed just 16-14. After a trio of Jake Elliot field goals in the 2nd half, Mac Jones led the Pats down the field and hit Kendrick Bourne to cut the lead to 5 with just under 4 minutes to play. Unfortunately, that was the closest they would get. Mac Jones finished with 3 touchdown passes and over 300 yards and Kendrick Bourne broke out with 6 receptions on 11 targets for 64 yards and 2 scores.
This line is a bit odd as we believe the Dolphins should be favored by closer to a touchdown in this matchup. If you take away the early turnovers by the Pats last week, they likely beat the Eagles and the Miami defense still allowed 34 points in their win. In the end, we believe the Miami offense is just too explosive for the Pats to keep up with. We may need to avoid a backdoor here in this one but we are still confident Tua and the boys get it down on the road again.
Key Trends:
Miami is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent in the AFC East.
Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against New England.
NE is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.
NE is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
SNF Props
Chad Ryland UNDER 5.5 Points -110
In the loss to the Eagles, Ryland only attempted 2 PATs and no FGs.
Miami has held opposing kickers under this total in 3 of their last 4 games.
Race to 25 Points (Miami) -150
The Patriots have not scored 25 points in their last 8 games.
Miami has exceeded 25 in 2 of their last 3 games.
Same Game Parlay: Tua 250+ passing yards/T. Hill 70+ receiving yards +100
Tua has gone over this total in 8 of his last 10 games.
Hill has gone over his total in 5 of his last 9 games with 2 of those that went under landing on 69 yards.
